Monday, January 13, 2014

Monday Chartapalooza 1/12/14 SPX /ES

Time to panic? I don't know but by the looks of things something has to happen sooner than later. There are so many balls in the air that something has to come crashing down sooner or later. China, Iran, MENA, Japan (and Fuku), EU lying in the weeds, our own plethora of issues, something will pop sooner than later and the market is telling us this. 

First we have a monthly bunch issue

Then we have a slightly one sided market

The RUT is the best textbook example of a technical top there is. 

 And the SMA's say ...

And Bullish Percent SPX sez - (This is the most ridiculous of all the charts IMO)

Monthly index comparison - Shows 'em all at extremes. 

That is just a sampling of a bevy of charts I could have thrown at you this morning. The CPC and BP charts are the most telling of an impending correction due strictly to severely overbought conditions. Tomorrow I'll get into the currencies, commodities and other stuff that will only reinforce the charts above. 

Minis 4hr - Your first sign a big change may be happening is the breakdown of pink rising wedge support. This could be the final reset of the lower support diagonal before one last push up, but given all the factors above it could also be the beginning of some sort of meaningful correction. Key support goes red 1824, green and blue near 1800, pink at 1775 and the red line of death at 1750.

Minis 60m - is a complete mess, but it has form. The volatility we discussed last week has not gone away. The bears are in play and continue to bother bully. The beige rising wedge support at 1829 is your key today. If that goes then red rising wedge resistance backtest is the next stop near 1820. If that cracks, it opens Pandora's box and the road to 1750. 

Can the market just fall or correct on its own? I don't think so, so it is time to start watching for events. Catalysts that will rock the boat. Things that are out of their control may be about to start popping up. Things that are in their control (like false flags) may start popping up as well. Of course the market does little without taper or QE talk and those rumors may pick up as well. The bear's greatest fear - taper off and moar QE on. 

You still have to follow their lead. With GS calling for a potential 10% pullback (which is impossible cause the red line of death is just short of 5%), and big corps actually selling into the rally now one has to be really careful and not put the cart ahead of the horse. Technically we look better than ever for a correction, but the market is still under their total control and they love squashing shorty. 

Am I gonna call a top? Very possible. Considering it here.

More to come below.

Have a good week. 

GL and GB!

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