So, how do you handicap a rigged market that refuses to fall with a hawkish Fed under an administration that has quite obviously lost all its marbles? You don't. You stay away. You don't guess. You don't assume something "must happen". As soon as you do, you start to vaporize cash (which is OK cause it's only fiat). We don't want that. Be my guest if you like. Short, long, go for it, but if you do I'd have dry powder, tight stops and an itchy trigger finger.
Welcome to September! We've been looking for this month to arrive for weeks now. I suggest you take a look at the post "Explosive" September Straight Ahead from ZH. Don't let the title fool you. It's a play on the potential war theme driving everything now. The post covers all the data and important meetings to come and has a pretty chart showing that over the last 100 years September is usually a red month overall.
I do need to mention that it is quite apparent that our administration wants this war worse than anything ever. As discussed the war is a cover for failed financial policy, a driver for global unrest, a ploy to gain more power and wealth and most of all a tool that will be used to further enslave the citizens of the US.
Daily SPX - Positive divergences and price at a critical support diagonal following close to a 5% sell off could be a recipe for some sort of a reversal. With the futures popping and getting ready to set a healthy gap up this morning is appears (appears) that all is well in Fantasy Land for now.
Minis 60m - Markets are still a formless lump of poo. After a few smaller reliable formations last week, the overall fall has zero identifiable formation which IMO remains a bearish cloud over the markets. Price overnight gapped up and thru NT blue resistance. This has paved the way for a possible move back to the 1666 level. Lord that number just keeps popping up. Red support remains the critical point of support, and that is near 1623 now.
Bully for now. I guess the bad is good theme still lives, and a war is as bad as it gets. No form and basically a wondering blob, that's what price is now. Everyone is confused, everyone is guessing right now. There are no certainties. This is a very dangerous time to be investing, so be careful.
I wanted the red support diagonal on the minis as my second target. They came close enough for me, now let's see what bully can pull off here. The top is either set or this should be the last bull trap to suck 'em in. Personally, I'm just gonna wait and scalp as I see necessary. Be patient STB. Let the play come to you.
More to come below.
Have a good day.
GL and GB!