Afternoon Delight 10/31/11 - Halloween!

Today generated a plethora of links and news. As usual STB would like to have a light post that is Halloween related, but that ain't happenin.

So you say it can't happen here? Riots During the Great Depression - Neighbor against neighbor.

Morning Post, 10/31/11, Halloween

Happy Halloween everyone. Ghouls and Goblins come out tonight. Will they be enough to scare the bulls away? Tomorrow starts the Christmas season. STB will be in the mood as usual as the season is short and the greatest time of year to celebrate many things. While I leave it off the blog except in the closing of each post, faith in God (or a revival there of - your god, my God or whatever you believe in) may be the one thing we all need to ask for this Christmas, because 2012 is going to be one tough year with many lean ones to follow.

STB has been postulating a November soon for some time. We may have to give it a week to get past the FOMC, EOM flows, a slew of EU meetings and the G20 before HOPE finally fades and the "sell the news" event that the EU bailout should be comes to fruition. All the critical dates are in HERE. What has been really quiet is the Super Congress and the debt ceiling issue.

What has been kept so quiet? "the next major catalyst in the macro spectacle will come not from across the Atlantic, but from these here United States, in the form of the Super Duper Committee tasked with finding the $1.2 trillion in deficit cuts needed in order to make the August debt ceiling hike legitimate. As a reminder the debt back then was $14.4 trillion - tomorrow it will officially surpass $15 trillion for the first time ever, meaning that even as the Super Committee squabbles, half the benefit from its "successful" conclusion has already been implemented." Presenting The Capeless Crusader: The Deficit (Non) Super Committee | ZeroHedge

Open Weekend Post 10/29,30/11

You know the drill - share the love and the knowledge.

I got nothing right now- will add some charts and news as the weekend goes.

I suspect Sunday night could be interesting.

Happy (early) Halloween.

Weekly SPX -

GL and GB.

Morning Post 10/28/11. SPX

I was right not getting too deep in reporting on the EU bailout mess farce. I find it (as unbelievable as it sounds at this point)   hard to fathom that after all the meetings, cancelled meetings and finally an agreement with commensurate blow off top that the net result is nothing has been achieved. Here we are thrown back into the rumor mill. Hey, why screw up a good things right. Might as well check the tinsel strength of the markets and see just how far they can stretch this thing without having to commit to anything. Well, there is nothing meaningful they can commit to, so they perpetuate the lies and ride it for what it is worth.

Afternoon Delight 10/27/11, SPX

Well, wasn't that nice. A 340 up DOW day that defied all logic and expectations. Nothing like the EU selling their soul to CHINA of all places to rally the markets. Nothing like an act of hopium that destroys the future of nations to cause the markets to move up like the promise of tomorrow is better than anytime in history. To those that know the math does not work and are constantly aggravated by the corruption and lies, all I can say is food, seeds, guns, ammo, silver and gold. They keep adding nails to the coffin and at the rate they are moving the last corner is coming fast (it is already sealed to the point that they can't get out).

OK, now here is where we get into the death of the dollar, nationalization or protectionism, and the potential catalyst for WWIII. Wait a minute, Shanky how did we get to this point overnight? Simple, the Fed told the EU to get its shit together. It couldn't, so they went to the devil to make a deal instead of totally collapsing.

Morning Post 10/27/11, SPX

This knida says it all "We are a bit surprised by the enthusiasm given the lack of detail and lack of surprise. We are also wondering how seriously investors will take the EFSF guarantees (which only apply in the event of a default), given that the banks were strongly encouraged to declare the current restructuring voluntary. Investors may fear that the EFSF - guaranteeing - governments will similarly contrive to avoid paying out on their first-loss guarantees." "Springtime For The Euro, Then Reality" - Citi Summarizes What Happened In Europe, And What Are The Next Steps | ZeroHedge

Follow that with Albert Edwards: "The Eurozone Crisis Will Get Much, Much Worse" And "The ECB Will Print" | ZeroHedge

For where a portion of the true fraud risk lies see Barclays Explains Why A 50% Greek Haircut "Would Be Considered A Credit Event, Consequently Triggering CDS Contracts" and this Farce Is Complete As ISDA Finds 50% "Haircut" Is Not A Credit Event | ZeroHedge. "Willem Buiter, "Failure to trigger Greek sovereign CDS when economic logic indicates this ought to occur would likely be detrimental to financial stability.""

Afternoon DISGUST, 10/26/11

Slight name change today.

UPDATE - Had to sling this to the top - "This is up from 41% a year ago and is the highest Gallup has recorded since 1993, albeit marginally above the 44% and 45% highs seen during that period." Gun Ownership Soars To 18 Year High: 47% Of Americans Admit To Owning A Gun | ZeroHedge

This rumor has been floating around for weeks and still moves the markets - For a bright and cheerful MSM summary of what happened today (which was nothing) see, "Meanwhile, reports also surfaced Wednesday night that French President Nicolas Sarkozy will speak with Chinese President Hu Jintao on Thursday about boosting the EFSF. Reuters and the Wall Street Journal both cited unnamed European Union sources." European Debt Crisis - Euro Zone to Boost Bailout Fund by 4-Fold: Sources - CNBC

Morning Post 10/26/11, SPX

It makes little sense to really speculate or try and guess what's going to happen with the largest item on the radar - the EU summit. News and rumors out of this event from haircuts to massive bailouts should be overwhelming. this will make trading extremely dangerous this week.

Merkel's speech was uplifting and promising, but we have seen that rhetoric like this is just that. "Merkel: No one should take another 50 years of peace in Europe for Granted" Merkel Goes For The Nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction (But Mostly Suicide) Option | ZeroHedge and the line, "MERKEL SAYS GERMANY `IS NOT THE NAVEL OF THE WORLD'" goes to prove what STB and others have been saying all along - Wiemar part deux is off the table. The salvation (which is impossible) of the EU will fall on the IMF and the US taxpayer.

Afternoon Delight 10/25/11

Well, well, well, the market can fall now can't it. I won't get too excited till SPX takes out 1220 support. Is the news finally catching up to price? Is reality actually sinking in? Is the fact that the EU is crumbling and has no answer to the debt problem other than defaulting back to the IMF (and the US taxpayer) actually registering with the markets? Wednesday could be a massive day especially towards or after the close. If the EU actually comes up with a resolution (which will not be followed as usual) the bears may get their sell the news event.

On to the news -

Not what they were expecting (or predicting to fool the markets) - Consumer Confidence Plunges To 39.8 From 45.4 On Expectations Of A Bump; Lowest Since March 2009 | ZeroHedge

Can they get it done? From what we've seen so far the answer is a resounding NO! That's fine, the market apparently loves the suspense. Europe crisis talks come down to the wire

Nuff said - ""We are living in crucial times. If the summit is a failure, this could tip the European continent into unknown territory," the sources from the ruling UMP party quoted the prime minister as saying during the meeting." 'Unknown territory' for Europe if summit fails: - MSN Indonesia News

Morning Post 10/25/11, SPX

OK, so here is the deal (or no deal) - EU was supposed to have a deal done by the 23rd but did not. Markets ramps on the "fact" they will have a resolution. Since there is no solution to the insolvable problem, they delay meetings and push the resolution date out. Markets still believing there is "hope" continue to rally. Does anyone here get the feeling that they A) know there is no solution or they would have fixed it months ago as STB has speculated or B) they really like the markets direction and know the "hope" or "rumor" trade is better for the markets avoiding the sell the news event as long as possible?

It has been clear as day for months (if not a year) now, Germany is not willing to go all Wiemar again and is not willing to destroy their economy to bail out those less fiscally responsible. Their house was in better order than the rest, so the rest of the EU came begging. Germany is the only sane country on the planet. They are the only ones not willing to run with the rest of the lemmings over the cliff of debt. For some odd reason they see the end game and want no part of it.

Afternoon Delight 10/24/11, Pure Insanity, CAT

I'm just gonna lay it out for you like I do every day. EVERY SINGLE DAY you get reports here where I try very hard to prove to you not only the US but the world is in dire straights and has crossed the line moving into financial oblivion. The math proves it. The economic destruction is the daily proof. I'm gonna pull a Denninger and give you a wad of I told you so's below.

Off we go (yet again) -

STB has been preaching about the municipal crisis to come for years now. Well, those years are finally adding up. State and muni budget cuts that are a direct result of the borrow to spend days are finally catching up to the system. You see folks, growth was not real. It was borrowed. The future was mortgaged to fuel the present day splurge. Somehow no one saw it coming. Well, it's here. You see the munis can't support themselves, the states can't support the munis and the feds are no longer supporting the states. Got it?

Morning Post 10/24/11, SPX

OK - I did a whole post and blogger did not save it as chrome crashed - Lovely - Crap!

Let's get the executive summary shall we -

Gold and silver look to be topping.

Oil looks to be breaking out, but is may just be a bear flag.

Natgas is filling the gap from the 10/26 open last year near 3.33 - to those /NG doubters - This is STB's favorite economic indicator. I was right two years ago it would hit 3.25 and I'm confident my $2.40 target will be net eventually.

Currencies - All sorts of resistance, but you can't trust anything at this time cause of intervention. Best to remain cautious. Most look bearish.

5, 10 and 30yr all fell fast this morning but remain range bound. Watch the bond markets.

Copper - double bottom dead cat bounce or a move to 2.85 here? I like the fall to 2,85 to coincide with a SPX move to 1040 and then QE3 comes for the last pop to set the right shoulder for immanent destruction.

Open Weekend Post 10/21/11

OK - share the love and knowledge quickly - this may be your last chance if we rapture tonight! If we don't rapture, that is no reason not to continue the love fest we have here each and every weekend.

It is always nice when your leaders start threatening other leaders. You know like, "Well see what happened to Gadaffi? You don't want that to happen to you now. Do you?" "Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and other "dictators" should feel nervous after the death of Libya's Muammar Qaddafi, U.S. Senator John McCain said." 'Dictator' Putin May Be Nervous After Qaddafi Death, McCain Says 

You could be next mofo - "President warns other Middle Eastern dictators, particularly Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, that they could be next" Obama hails death of Muammar Gaddafi as foreign policy success | guardian.co.uk

Morning Post 10/21/11 (Rapture Version 2.0), SPX

STB's gonna take this rapture theme and run with it - If you do not like dire things then you may not want to read this.

STB is skipping to the end game - 

Rapture would be a sensational alternative to the BS we're all going to have to live through. I don't think that is gonna happen anytime soon (rapture that is). I think the Big man upstairs wants to see us all endure some serious pain before he comes back again. We've had it so good on an awesome planet with everything we could ever ask for and look at us now. If you are into the rapture thing, today is the day! 10-21-11: NeeD I ReMiND You YeT AGaiN? THe END Is NeaR! | ZeroHedge 

How is this financial and global mess all your fault and mine? Simple, we elected crappy, greedy, self serving representatives that always chose the easy way to riches and did not monitor the process. We then turned our heads and became self absorbed  lazy, uneducated sloths and allowed them to sell out the system to the greedy, corrupt, self serving assholes that run the banks and corporate ameriKa. We lost our "check" in the check and balance system. We're now living in a police state that serves GMO foods and sprays the air with aluminum and other savory things. Can we stop any of it. Nope. Remember those crappy elected officials? Yup, we're screwed. 

Afternoon Delight 10/20/11, SPX, JPM, GS, MS, BAC

Quickie tonight - News has not changed or gotten any more interesting - Actually quite dizzying from the go/no go EU crowd.

VIC Issues Bank Of America As "Terminal Short" Thesis | ZeroHedge

Following Short Selling And CDS Ban, Europe Now Seeks To Ban Free Speech | ZeroHedge

JPMorgan’s Legal Bills Push Industry Tally of Bad Mortgages to $69 Billion - Bloomberg

US Economy: US 'Misery Index' Rises to Highest Since 1983 - CNBC

US Consumer Hopium Drops To February 2009 Levels | ZeroHedge

Morning Post 10/20/11, SPX, Oil, Gold, Silver, AUD, EUR, UDS, JPY

OK - Let's go over this one last time for you Modern Economics 101 students - Greece can't afford jack shit and are so in debt they can't pay back what they owe. How do you solve this problem? You simply give them more money. Got it? You may be tested on this later, so I wanted to make sure you understood this.

Today you simply keep pumping money into the system to keep it alive. Fix the issue? Fuck no! That would be to friggin hard and cost to many politicians their jobs.  You do what you can to keep it alive for as long as possible and when it finally implodes you blame it on someone else and say that no one could have seen the problems coming. 

You do realize that greeting Greece out of trouble this time will only keep them alive for another month or two. Rinse/repeat. At some point the repeat part of that statement will not occur. 

Afternoon Delight 10/19/11, SPX

Not sure where to start today's post. I'm in a bit of shock after the late day swoon (even though it was long overdue) in the markets. I was not sure that was still a possibility. Glad to see it is. Someone must have shut down the FT's communication channels ability this afternoon.

Bottom line is everything is revolving around the EU solvency issues. All lies and fraud aside it appears the end of the rope is coming fast and Germany, not willing to return to its Wiemar roots, is clogging up the corrupted bailout process spoiling the party for everyone across the globe. "Unfortunately for Merkozy, their despotic and tyrranical measures according to which they represent the will of the people yet really all they do is preserve the viability of insolvent French banks, will no longer fly." And Now The Bundestag Demands A Say | ZeroHedge

Morning Post 10/19/11, SPX

OK, so GS and AAPL miss on the same day and the futures the next morning are flat? Are you friggin serious? To those of you that don't think the markets are rigged, are you at least thinking twice now? Are you now at least somewhat skeptical? All the major banks are basically using accounting fraud pulling down DVA's (Debt Value Adjustments) by the BILLIONS to beat earnings and the markets are acting like nothing is wrong with this?

"There is just one piece of information one needs to see to realize just how big of a farce financial results reporting has become in America, with the accountants' and auditors' blessing. Morgan Stanley today reported income of $2.2 billion, or $1.14 per diluted share on an apples to unicorns basis, compared with income of $314 million, or $0.05 per diluted share, for the same period a year ago." $1.12 Of Morgan Stanley's $1.14 Q3 EPS Comes From Benefit Of Spread Blow Out | ZeroHedge. "As for what matters: Institutional Securities revenue would have been $3 billion net of the DVA compared to $5.2 billion in Q2 - said otherwise a complete business collapse in the quarter." (emphasis mine)

Afternoon Delight 10/18/11, The "Run Away" Edition, SPX,

OK, so I am still bitching about the market moving up on vapor volume driven by HFT algobots and rumors about euro zone bailouts that are no more than rumors. You should be as well at this point. Again, I was not short and did not get burned. I'm pissed at the illegal, manipulated bullshit that the markets have become.

About the only surprise today (not if you look at that weekly chart I shave been showing) is AAPL missing earnings. Add it all up and you find they got a whole bunch out of nothing and get the pleasure of RELOADING THE RUMOR MILL yet again later this week.

At some point all these rumors are gonna press price up to a point that the real announcement will be no more than a dud commencing a serious sell the news event. Markets should not even be sniffing these levels anyway. Without the promise of nationalization of the banks as a backstop (which is funny cause who's gonna backstop the nation behind the bailout) they would all be toast right now. For goodness sake, look at all the FASB and DVA assisted beats we have seen this week. How about this headline that did not even phase the markets today - S&P Downgrades Over 20 Italian Banks, Says Difficult Climate Is Neither "Transitory" Nor "Easily Reversed" | ZeroHedge.

Morning Post 10/18/11, SPX, AAPL, Dollar, Commod, PIIGS

Bank earnings this morning were disastrous (IBM as well) and yet the markets are ignoring the horror show from the financials. Bank of America Posts Adjusted Loss Excluding "Benefits" From Spread Blow Up and Goldman Reports Massive $0.84 Loss Per Share, Prop Trading Loss Of $2.5 Billion, Comp Accrual Of $358,713 Per Employee (both ZeroHedge)  pretty much put the financial issues in a nutshell especially combined with WF, C and JPM disappointments already. Don't tell the markets though, they are waiting on AAPL tonight. (Earnings Calendar HERE.)

And Meanwhile Over In European CDS Land... | ZeroHedge. Nothing to fear here, just the credit and bond markets absolutely gong ape shit over risk that the stock markets ignore on a minute by minute basis. STB readers all know to follow the smart money (hint - not equity traders). The issue is timing the move. Patience is required. Confidence is not, the eventual meltdown is virtually a sure thing.

Afternoon Delight - 10/17/11, SPX

Earnings season not off to such a hot start. Who coulda thunk it? IBM Misses Top Line, Boosts EPS Forecast, Stock Slides After Hours and Fidelity Loses $50 Million In Seconds On Its Brand Spanking New Investment, As Crocs Plunges On Guidance Cut: 2007 Redux? (Crocs? Seriously? The $5 shoe?) and from this morning Citi Earnings Bloodbath: $3.8 Billion ($1.23/Share) In Reported "Earnings" Really $0.5 Billion Or $0.16/Share. Kinda make a bear want to get up in the morning looking for Is Goldman About To Report Only The Second Loss Since Its 1999 IPO? (all links from ZeroHedge).

The earnings schedule this week is jam packed (not to mention it is opex which may or may not matter). Tomorrow we get AAPL, BAC, INTC, JNJ, KO and more.

Morning Post 10/17/11, SPX

This headline is a far cry from the "all is well invest away" one I got on my iPhone from CNBS mobile - Citi Earnings Bloodbath: $3.8 Billion ($1.23/Share) In Reported "Earnings" Really $0.5 Billion Or $0.16/Share | ZeroHedge. (WF missed - STB thinks they are the first to fall when this all goes down - with BAC running a close second.)

Bottom line is were at a crossroads. One that we all reach only a few times in our lives. One that your parents always told you that you would face. To join the dark side where the power and riches are easy and great or to take the straight and narrow path of reason and truth which is never as easy but reaps real rewards in the end.

The JPM and C earnings are the lure of the dark side. They say, "Fuck the rest of the world. We don't give a shit what is real or true. All we fucking care about is making as much GD money ad possible no matter who gets hurt. We are untouchable banking overlords. Come join us in the riches and spoils of fraud and greed." That is pretty much it. They have been given the keys to the kingdom. Must be nice when your business is failing and they change the accounting rules and pull most regulation so you can do and say whatever the fuck you want to. Now that is my kind of business model.

Open Weekend Post - 10/14-16/11

You know what to do - Share the love and the knowledge -

G20 meeting could send some shock waves or the futures into orbit this weekend. There is no telling what sort of crap they will spew about recoveries and bailouts and stimulus. Very dangerous times. I think there was a top placed Friday just before the close. Right now this is only anticipated to be a corrective to the 1170 to 143 area. I think disaster hits in November.

Best to be in cash now and let this BS settle. Obviously the market believe there will be some sort of major bailout/fixit plan that will be the end all be all of savior packages. I guarantee it will be the end all of something....

If you read this blog and think we'r a bit loony read this and see the chart - This is REALLY SCREWED UP!

US Consumers Hit Peak Schizophrenia - A Chart | ZeroHedge

Here is a good video that describes our current situation and what may have to be done for us to have any hope -

Hedges: No way in US system to vote against banks - YouTube



Have a great weekend.

GL and GB.

Morning Post 10/14/11, SPX, GOOG

Let's make this simple -

The G20 is meeting - Hi, It's Tim, I'm Stuck In Paris, And Need You To Send $500 | ZeroHedge

The earnings barrage starts Monday - U.S. Earnings: Company Earnings Calendar - Bloomberg

Who gives a shit about earnings when we all know they are manipulated anyway (as more proof comes to the top - think JPM) - The "Book-Cooking" Index Soars To All Time Highs | ZeroHedge

No worries - the financials are in great shape - Fitch: More Than Dozen Banks May Get Rate Cut - Bloomberg

Holder is in deep shit - Obama Talked About "Fast & Furious" Months Before Holder Claimed He Knew | RealClearPolitics

The conspiracy nuts may like this one - Is the New World Order unraveling?

Afternoon Delight 10/13/11, SPX, GOOG

Another rumor - another stick save. This is no longer amazing - it is annoying. It is annoying because of the gravity defying price action in the face of impending financial doom, the ability to generate a market ramping "rumor" (not fact - rumor)  whenever it is needed on a moment's notice is becoming so commonplace that they are now beyond humorous.

When the comments section of a blog like this can predict with an astounding degree of accuracy that "they" need a "bump" and it comes - you know something is f'd up. (Sorry to the board there - not discounting your brilliance - just trying to make a point that a gaggle of ex-financial, farmers, managers, lawyers, business owners, retirees, programmers and various other occupations - none related to or with Wall St. experience - can seemingly kick the experts collective ass at their own game.)

So, this afternoon we get another bump from Van Rompuy And Barroso Announce €440 Billion EFSF Fully Functional; Now, How Do They Expand It To €3 Trillion? | ZeroHedge. "The only problem, yesterday, today and tomorrow, is the open answer to the question of who will pay for this €2.5-3 trillion rescue net? Because we now know that China, which is busy bailing out its own banking system is out of the picture, while the US has its own major problems - the last thing the Fed needs is for the general populace to realize the Fed is once again directly bailing out failing European banks, like it did with Dexia." This post is required reading for everyone. Please click and read.

Morning Post 10/13/11, SPX, JPM

I guess we're just gonna have to wait on the STB "external event" (or exogenous as the more literate call it) to come. For those that do not know, one of STB's long standing calls (over two years) is that to bring this market down it will take an "event" that is beyond the control of the Fed, US Government or any other entrenched power that exists. An event that no one will be able to run or hide from.

So far mass animal deaths, volcanoes, earthquakes, tsunamis, floods and a smattering of other global disasters have been leading up to whatever this "event" may be. I believe the event will have to be financially related. It will have to hit "them" at their core. You see when the banks can pull off shit like JPM's earnings this morning, you are left shaking your head an knowing when this does end it will not be pretty.

Afternoon Delight 10/12/11, SPX, MUB

Interesting day today as the ramp came to an abrupt end at the prescribed 1220 resistance. Will SPX revert to the bottom end of the range now or are the bears in for more punishment? See the chart below for my answer.

So, what finally got the markets to stop their advance? What is it all about these days as discussed here many times - liquidity - Market Slumps After European Banks Admit They Can't/Won't Raise Capital; Will Proceed With Asset Liquidations Instead | ZeroHedge  "The reason: according to the FT (and certainly take this with a salt shaker if previous experience is any indication) is that European banks have balked at the prospect of recapitalizing at current levels ("Why should we raise capital at these [depressed share price] levels?” said one eurozone bank boss."

Morning Post 10/12/11, SPX, Oil

STB in the not to distant past railed on the municipal crisis that is coming. It has been some time since STB has addressed this issue, but STB has not forgotten it. "We are confident the spinmasters will spin the first major domino in the muni crisis as bullish: after all it "removes uncertainty." Bloomberg reports that "The city of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, facing a state takeover of its finances, filed for bankruptcy protection following a vote by the City Council," It Begins: Harrisburg Files For Bankruptcy Protection | ZeroHedge

It will not be long till more municipalities follow, then the states have to pick up the slack. this will not be possible. Welcome to the beginning of the end. Just one domino is all it takes. Several other smaller munis have failed under the radar, but this is the first sizable one to go. Discussing state budgets with a good friend the problems facing them in 2012 will be very pressing. Income is way down and deeper cuts in state budgets are coming. A rash of muni crashes is something the states can not handle and something the federal government will not even begin to touch.

Afternoon Delight 10/11/11, SPX

Well, that sucked. A day that went nowhere? A daily doji at resistance in the top of a wedge? News was extinct for the most part waiting on the EFSF vote and AA after hours. Blah would be the best way to describe today's actions.

On to the news -

The way I see it is they will need a catalyst later this week and told them to hold off on approval - Slovakia Rejects Plan To Expand EFSF, Government Falls | ZeroHedge

As I have been calling - this will not all end till the minimum wage has been lowered - yup - that is one of my calls. Extreme? Not when you really think about it. We have a massive amount of deterioration to go thru - ""The problem i have with the investment universe is that i find it difficult to envision how the US and western Europe can return to healthy sustainable growth without a complete purge of the financial system and some type of catalyst. Something that restores some measure of social cohesion among people;  it could be hyperinflation, a complete credit market collapse, widespread sovereign defaults, civil strife, major military confrontation.”" Marc Faber To America: "Listen You Lazy Bugger, You Need To Tighten Your Belts, You Need To Work More For Lower Salaries" | ZeroHedge

Of course EVERYONE ignored this - if it does not have to do with a central bank - fhugeddaboutit - Iranians charged in U.S. over plot to kill Saudi envoy | Reuters

Morning Post 10/11/11, SPX

Earnings begin tonight with AA.

Apparently Greece will have enough cash to make it thru the year. If you believe that you need to have your head examined.

SPX 15m - Super sharp wedge needs corrective.

Morning Post 10/10/11, SPX

"David Cameron has urged European leaders to take a “big bazooka” approach to resolving the eurozone crisis, warning they have just a matter of weeks to avert economic disaster." ‘Time short’ for eurozone, says Cameron - FT.com

All is not well but that obviously means nothing in the investment world. Betting on the rumor of the eventual fix that everyone knows will fail seems to be the thing to do. One may wonder why cash is running for safety at the same time the investment universe is running to get in early on the next big run? In The Meantime Belgium Bond Yields Jump, ECB "Flight To Safety" Facility Usage Soars To Highest In 15 Months | ZeroHedge. Wonders never cease.

You see, "Some time ago we suggested that in lieu of actual practicable solutions (and a promise to recapitalize several trillion worth of insolvent banks absent some magic money printing tree or gold coin defecating unicorn, is so stupid only the market ramping vacuum tube algos can believe, if only for a few hours), the only thing left for Europe's leaders is to baffle absolutely everyone with relentless bullshit." European Mission Accomplished: Everyone Is Now Thoroughly Baffled With Bullshit | ZeroHedge

Open Weekend Post

Share the love and the knowledge -

Quick post as I am buggin out for the weekend. I'll be around as usual.

Few quick reads -

MAssive reson to worry - PrimeX - The Time For The Next "Subprime Trade" Has Come | ZeroHedge

Massive fraud - More Fake Farmers - Stossel's Take Blog - Fox Business

And a classic rant (language is really bad) h/t Soup - Lynn Woodman's Videos 

I'll post a chart tonight after the close when we get settled in.

Enjoy your weekend

GL and GB.

My new bumper sticker - I hope you like it. 

Morning Post 10/07/11, SPX

OK, so the jobs number was a hit! Fantastic, at this pace and if you add Barry's jobs bill we'll be back at normal employment levels sometime around 2025 or so. U6: September NFP Prints At 103,000, Beats Consensus, Even As U-6 Comes At Highest Since December 2010, Manufacturing Jobs Lost | ZeroHedge. "And, oh yes, real unemployment, U6, printed up from 16.2% to 16.5%, the highest since December 2010." Add to that, "The increase in employment partially reflected the return to payrolls of about 45,000 telecommunications workers who had been on strike in August." You do the math on how that number skewed the report that sent the futures rallying 16 points.

Moody's Continues Euro Downgrade Spree, Cuts Portuguese, British Banks | ZeroHedge. "Per Bloomberg: "Nine Portuguese banks had their debt ratings cut by Moody’s Investors Service by one or two levels, which cited concern about funding, bad loans and holdings of government debt. Moody’s cut the “standalone” debt ratings of three banks, Banco Espirito Santo SA, Banco Comercial Portugues SA and Banco BPI SA, by two levels, the ratings company said in a statement today." Elsewhere, per BBC, "Moody's has downgraded the credit rating of 12 UK financial firms including Lloyds TSB, RBS, Nationwide and Santander UK."

Afternoon Delight 10/06/11 - Will It Go Into Orbit?

And the markets are moving up because? Well, we all know the reason (or reasons). Rigged, rumor, HFT. POMO, you name it, all combined make a nasty brew to induce short squeeze mania. The bears should be petrified right now. It appears their respect for team ramp is in place. They have all witnessed the last two QE ramps. (Don't forget that the EU just upped their QE quota last night by $75b.) Just keep on reading the news and following the Fed/rumor train. It will all end terribly and every dollar they throw on the fire only makes the end game that much worse.

The good news is that Le Figaro Discloses France Has Prepared An Emergency "Just In Case" Nationalization Plan For "2 Or 3" Banks | ZeroHedge. "There are three phrases the market never wants to hear. Ever. They are "contingency", "just in case", and "only." Alas, it just got all three of them in an article just released by French Le Figaro which, per Bloomberg, has disclosed that "France has been working for a number of days on a plan that would allow the state to take a stake in the country’s financial institutions if needed." Of course Sarkozy Advisor Says French Bank Recapitalization "May Be Necessary" | ZeroHedge which is quite comforting as well. The DOW has rallied over 700 points in the last three days with this as a backdrop? Seriously?

Add to that THIS! BBC Does It Again: "In The Absence Of A Credible Plan We Will Have A Global Financial Meltdown In Two To Three Weeks" - IMF Advisor | ZeroHedge

Morning Post 10/06/11, SPX

Steve Jobs, what a wild and crazy ride we had with him. One sensational innovator that has changed the lives of millions for the better. Bless him and his family.

What do you do when your back is against the wall, there is no hope and all remedies have been exhausted? QE FOR EVERYONE! "As many expected, the Bank of England has followed in Bernanke's footsteps and proceeded with extra QE, 75 billion extra, or about 25 billion more than consensus - this is the first expansion in the British QE since November 5, 2009 when it did the latest  £25 billion expansion. Unfortunately, this is just the beginning: much more global QE is coming down the line as the "monetary authority" realizes it only has itself and its printers to rely on in a world rapidly reentering recession." Bank Of England Expands QE By £75 Billion To A Total Of £275 Billion, Keeps Rate Unchanged | ZeroHedge 

Kicking the can is almost as popular as an iDevice these days. QE announcements seem to be outpacing new Apple product announcements. Sadly they are the inverse. One changes lives exponentially and makes things easy and joyful. The other increases debt and delays addressing important issues that will lead to no one being able to afford an iDevice in the future. Speaking of POMO. no POMO today, here's the schedule. 

Afternoon Delight 10/05/11 - The Hangover

I guess everyone is still a little hung over from the 400 point ramp party the DOW threw late yesterday. There was some follow thru today, but not much to crow about. If that move had been real and had any sustenance the markets would have been up almost as much today. I guess rumor driven ramps are good for just that, nothing other than artificially lifting price to a level that allows the powers that be a bit more breathing room and more importantly time.

On to the news -

From the "Lord I hope they pull this off" category - Anonymous threaten to take down NYSE.com. "The message went out through a video on YouTube calling for a "DDoS attack" attack on the New York Stock Exchange's site at 3:30 p.m. ET on October 10. That's Columbus Day, a holiday for many U.S. workers, but the stock markets will be open for their usual trading house." Mark your calendars!

With all the China/US rhetoric flying around is it any surprise this happens over Hawaii? Missile defense system hits 2 targets over Hawaii - Yahoo! News.  "The test took place at the Pacific Missile Range Facility in Kauai (kuh-WEYE'). The agency says that during the test, the system engaged and simultaneously intercepted two short-range ballistic missiles. "

Morning Post 10/05/11, SPX

IMF Vows To Spend Some More Taxpayer Money | ZeroHedge. "The crowd that is wondering who will foot the bill remains dubious. Economic conditions continue to deteriorate globally. There is less willingness and less ability of the "rich" nations to fund the "poor" ones. There is even less willingness to fund the banks. It is great that Europe finally sees the problem, but they have waited too long. There is no group of countries left that is strong enough to support the banks and weak nations without getting dragged down themselves."

That sums the situation up nicely and let's you know why Germany has been balking at throwing good money after bad (did someone actually learn a history lesson?). They are waiting on another succa (Bernanke) to come along to heap piles of fiat on the issue. Think of it as a massive fire and then you throw a bunch of green (ink soaked) leaves on it. The fire goes down but the coals remain and eventually the leaves catch only adding more fuel to what was there. The ash represents devaluation of everything associated with the fire and that pile is growing massively.

Afternoon Delight 10/04/11 - Rumor Driven!

I'm not going there. I'll let Soup do all the moaning and groaning below in the comments section. Ridiculous? Nope, waaaaaaay beyond ridiculous. Hey, we're used to it. Desperate times require desperate measures. When QE and the Bernank can't buy the markets up you resort to dirty tricks and any source of stimulus possible.

As I have been telling you literally for years now, this market is all they have between them and basically anarchy. They will do whatever it takes to salvage it. Like a mother lion protecting her young, expect a fight to the death. Sadly death is what we're gonna get either way. Looks like the time has come to start scalping the patented 2008 3:00 mega ramps to the close.

If you think there is any reason to get long after reading the below - be my guest - This post is gonna get really busy - so stick with me - Don't forget to duck and cover when you see the flash.

Morning Post 10/04/11, SPX, AUD, EUR, JPY, Gold, Oil, USD

"Overnight saw credit markets crushed overseas in Australia and Asia,
Europe continue to sink into the abyss and now pre-market equities in
the US are showing serious weakness with no sign of a bounce." FINal(er) Countdown | ZeroHedge

I'm not sure how long I have been telling you i is all about EU liquidity, but it has been a while. Nothing works without lubrication. Friction is bad. European Liquidity Update: Horrible And Getting Worse | ZeroHedge

I do not know about you, but I think there will be a tradeable event at 10:00 when Helicopter Ben speaks. I HIGHLY suggest you watch this - Bernanke Testifies To The Joint Economic Committee; And The Balance Of D.C. Theater For The Week | ZeroHedge

Afternoon Delight - The "Duck and Cover" Edition

Quite the day in the markets. That early head fake threw a few off the scent, but it was pretty easy to pick back up after the minis ran into double resistance and reversed course. Bottom line is we're so close to collapse I'm inclined to think the majority have moved to the denial stage. This is a move I even experience, you know it is coming, you have called it, it is painfully obvious, but as it nears and when the signs are the greatest you withdraw. Call it a protection mode or whatever psychological term you like. It might be time to learn how to duck and cover.

Morning Post 10/03/11, SPX

Well, it is the season for miraculous comebacks? The NFL and NCAA had some big time rallies this weekend. Can the markets pull one off here? We all know the markets are rigged and have the officials in their pocket, so it may not be a fair game. The new POMO schedule is out. and I suggest you take a look at it here - Tentative Outright Treasury Operation Schedule - Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

News was hot and heavy over the weekend. STB loves it when the "experts" come in several months behind where we are with prognostications and confirm our long standing views. "My secular view remains bearish. In or within a year from now I expect global equities to be 25% to 30% lower. My S&P500 target for the low in 2012 remains 800/900, and I think an 'undershoot' into the 700s is entirely possible." Bob Janjuah: "In One Year I Expect Global Equities To Be 25%/30% Lower; The S&P Will Reach Low 1000s In October" | ZeroHedge