Sunday, January 10, 2010

A Chart

I first used this chart in a prophetic post prognosticating the continued levitation of the SPX. Now, I am using it to forecast a fall. The question begs, how big a fall? Will it cycle to a slightly higher low near 1050 or will it take a bigger bite into March and actually mark a lower low indicating bigger falls to come? Could higher highs be in order? I will go to 1214 but no higher. The 1300+ calls are on drugs, and those people need to be institutionalized and then incarcerated for misleading the public. 

I'm struggling to see much more upside here given the divergences and overbought indicators (not to mention many other issues like record P/E and the SPXA50 over 400 again). This market has been full of manipulated surprises that have destroyed many a TA forecast. Can it continue? Sure it can, but I'm voting for a turn here soon. I'm looking for one more minor corrective before a larger fall later in the year. The manipulators are not going to let go and historical market forces can not take it away from them.

With the MACD hist continually trending lower and the RSI and MCAD having nice divergences to price one would expect a turn here very soon. In Opex And Cycles (And More Possible Upside)  I prognosticated thru trending that the market would levitate based on prior actions after the recent cycle lows. I was fortunate to be right. Now I am using the same chart, but looking for a turn. 1080 to 1050is what I am looking for. I will be more precise if and when it occurs. Look for the divergence on the CCI to set and then short away. We're close.

I'd also like to point out Four Possible Solar Play I gave back on November 2nd. At least I called one 1 bagger - not bad over all if you ask me. I chart the sector in my chartbook. I like to follow it and the swings are dramatic. There may be some good short ops here soon. (actually - I am quite tickled with the results of this call. Not bad for two months work.)

FSLR - 123 to 142 + 15,5%
SOLF - 4.66 to 10.08 + 116%
TAN - 8.46 to 11.28 + 33%
WFR - 12.50 to 15.02 + 20%

See you Monday. GL!