Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Morning Post

Earnings calendar from - Briefing.com - notable today are C and IBM. Of course the market has moved up after C stinks up the joint. Citi's $7.6 bln loss meets Wall Street estimate from Marketwatch. Only in America can losing $7.6 bln be met with applause. This is a really screwed up place. That is good news folks. They MET expectations losing $7.6 BILLION! Reward them. Reward them with massive equity purchases.

Mas election is a really big deal. I am going to put my conspiracy tin foil hat on and speculate the front runner republican loses in a tight race, the dems to hold the seat and for a massive vote rigging case to come out of it.

Economic calendar - Barrons.com -

SPX daily chart - I am not gonna speculate for squat this week with the earnings on deck (unless we get on a good count). I don't like surprises. We all know the market looks super toppy and TA is suggesting a significant turn sooner or later. Sorry that is my style. Is the top in? Who the heck knows. EWI has called it again and maybe the third or fourth time is the charm. For their sake, I hope they are right. I don't think we are there yet, but we could be.

Big red candle on Friday breaking some support lines. I would normally be short at this point. I'll wait for form and the correction to get short if that is eventually the place to be. If there is a 3 down to com I want to be in on it. All the indicators here look pretty bad, but then again, they have been sort of range bound to overbought for quite some time. My best guess is pay attention to the lower fibs and support. I have been calling for the wedge pullback for a while and still stick to it. Yews, I am still looking for another higher high. GL!

Gold - headed down. Possibly in a 1 of 3 down. Ouch.
Oil - 84 to 77 is not good. Esp in one week. May be a bit oversold.
Natgas - Possible H&S playing out taking /NG to 5.20 as part of what looks like a 5 wave correction. this is possibly 3 of 3 here.
Dollar - I think the dollar is in a ABC corrective (contrary to the bigger bulls out there). My target is 89. Nice pop up over the weekend and a 1.10 move up since late last week Another dollar up should not be a problem at this time.
10 year treasury - Moving up pretty strong over the past week taking out some resistance. Should continue.