Monday, January 25, 2010

Around The Rim (And Down The Hole)

Busy earnings day and AAPL hits it out of the park. We don't own a mac yet, but we can't get off of iTunes. With the kids getting iTouches for Xmas, maybe the 1,000 songs/apps they have purchased since 12/25 put AAPL over the top (or my account under the bus?) Apple earnings jump on strong iPhone sales. The action of AAPL has been volatile with a surge to 208 and subsequent pullback to 200.

Looking into earnings some disturbing trends are being uncovered. With 20% Of S&P Reporting, YoY Ex-Fin Revenue Growth Is... Negative  - I've been speculating what's going to happen in a revenueless business environment. It will catch up eventually. Beating depressed low bar estimates is great, but when that bar starts getting lowered again (or at least quits getting raised) look out!

Being from Georgia this headline from Mish caught my eye, the rest of the post caught my attention. Hoschton Georgia Dissolves Police Department One would think in a country that is sure to face some serious rebellion within the year, uh, police may be important. How about with 18% unemployment that crime may become an issue? States and cities are desperately trying to balance their budgets and making some dramatic cuts. Just take a peek at what the Governator and Illinois are doing. Tax revenue is waaaay down. Just wait till Big Brother comes down from on high and starts hitting up the taxpayers left and right. the states will really be SOL then and so will we. This will get really ugly. (Hoschton is just north of the ATL - I had to look that one up)

More shenanigans in the reported numbers from Big Brother? ANOTHER revised number you say? No, kidding? It caught Mish's and Denninger's attention (and since you know I am large into manipulation), so I bring it to you. Mish has Charts of the Day: Durable Goods and Goods Employment In General and Denninger has Durable Goods "Mistake" Or FRAUD? You can't make this shit up, but THEY CAN!

Prag Cap brings us DICK BOVE: WE ARE ON THE PRECIPICE OF A POLITICALLY DRIVEN EQUITY CRASH  "Dick Bove, an analyst at Rochdale Research released an alarming report yesterday detailing the dangers of a politically driven market.  In his opinion, we could be on the verge of a market crash driven by the President’s financial reform bill and growing anti-business sentiment:" Combine this with Charles Nenner's interview here and you get a good mix of disaster preparedness. Of course Ritholtz had this to say about the Bove article - Most Irony-Impaired Wall Street Research Title. Ever.

Ritholtz has NY Fed Wanted National Security Exemption for AIG and Zero Hedge has Use of National Security Book Cooking Exception Not Looking So Paranoid After All I'm telling you that this thing is gonna blow up and the people will not be happy. IMO, EVERYTHING is out of control in Washington and it will all come out in the wash sooner or later. The fraud, lies and insider rigging has been rampant. This time it has gotten so big they will not be able to cover up this pile of poo. Someone will get strung up for this eventually.

That is enough for now. Do your homework and be prepared. Screw gold, ammo, water and seeds will rule the day in a year or two.