Friday, January 29, 2010

Morning Post

Minis up 5 and climbing. Boy does CNBS have the cheerleaders out this am touting growth and prosperity. sounds good if you are a moron. Remember they are salesmen, not prophets. What's that saying about lipstick on a pig (all except Becky of course)? Our first morning with Benjamin back at the helm for another four years looks to be getting off to a prosperous start. I guess the markets take to the idea of furthering the reflation trade.

E-mini 60m - That green support line going back to June was unexpectedly tested again. That was the missing 5th wave I am suspecting. I was a day early jumping into the small long position, but that is fine. Got out with small gain and now ready to reload again. Let's see what happens at the 50% line in the sky blue channel and then at the top of it as well. The yellow wedge target is just outside the top of the blue channel near 1123. Resistance at 1103, 1112 and then up around 1127 should be your stopping points and then the retracements are 38% 1101, 50% 1109 and 62% 1117. I believe a base has been built and I'm not looking down (yet).

SPX 60m - Now you know why I like the daily indicators to trade off of. Take a peek at the divergences here and see how ineffective they have been to this point. Sure, they are screaming a turn is coming but not the tradeable point of the market. This is a good chart to see the fibs, s/r and the trend.

Gold - Is about to bottom out and reverse I think. Within $20 of the 38% retracement and double converging channel support. Might be time to buy some more tungsten gold soon. $1066 is the 38% retracement. When that eventually cracks, 1020 is the next stopping point.
Oil - As I showed in the chart yesterday am, oil is at lower channel support completing a 23.6 retracement at $71.60. Daily S Sto bull cross and divergence in RSI may mean the bottom is in.
Dollar - Sister Christian is "Motorin" right on up the charts in what I am calling the 3 of C of the ABC correction.
Natgas - support has cracked and a lower low has been set. It may be channeling down and might be time for a small pop after giving up over a dollar (down 15%) in the past few weeks.
EUR/USD - still beow 1.40 and looks like it will get even weaker if the dollar is gonna continue Motorin.
EUR/JPY - Finally took out the LT support level of 126.71. 124.24 is the next level. It may be channeling down.

GL out there. GDP is strong like bull! (like bullshit if you ask me). Keep on playing their game, cause you can't beat 'em. I'm looking for a corrective to begin soon. My daily chart has not given a buy signal yet. the MACD hist reversal yesterday really pissed me off. That and the S Sto cross looked good, but as I noted RSI and a few other factors were not there. They will be soon I believe.

Have a great weekend.