Monday, January 18, 2010

Gold:USD - 20% Pullback Coming?

Just looking at the chart if you follow the red vertical lines the story is there. the average pullback is 20% and each lasted four months or more. The only aberration was the black dashed line that set the divergence for the massive pullback in 2008 (it still generated a 9% pullback). I'm not sure if the larger blue channel is in play or what I see as a more recent possible gray channel. Given what has happened in the past with MACD at these extremes and the HIST divergence, it does not look promising. Bottom line is that with a 630% run up over 9 years, I would have to think this peak to trough trend is real and should be expected. Target is near 12.95, but it could be worse given the blue fib on this chart. the 38% retracement at 12.88 is close to the prescribed target. GL!