Friday, January 15, 2010

Morning Post

C and IBM report Monday. Here is next weeks calendar. INTC did well. Looks like revenues are gonna suck again this quarter. I have to ask, at what point in time do missed revenues (for what might be 8 consecutive quarters now) catch up with businesses in a market where credit is tight and consumption is low?

JPM beats and cautions. No up in dividend (who expected that?). Cautious words about consumer credit were not received well.

It is always nice to rally to new highs on a day when employment numbers were a slight disappointment.

CPI was ho hum slightly better than expected this am. Futures are down 4.5 right now.

SPX 30m - Chart shows a nice channel over the past month (call it a GSEC). Looks to me like a 1,2 - 1,2 move and should be tired. The reason I'm bringing in the 30m chart is that the divergences are very noteable and should be taken into consideration.

SPX 60m - Check out the rotation of the Stochs from top to bottom to top. Was that the pullback? Whoopie! Is it time to embed again? I don't think so. You see the 30m channel from above in green. Is this a measured move? However you want to measure the move off of the November low and then translate it to this move, looks like 1201 to me if it is. Nice divergences here as well. What I see as a throwover E of the triangle is still there. I do not think the triangle target will be met on the pullback unlesws we get some sort of serious disappointment in the earnings arena soon. Not sure if the apex of the triangle next week will deliver anything either. I still stick with the call for some sort of pull back, but not what I was looking for earlier this week.

OK, all that said, throw everything you know about TA and EWT and fundamentals out the window and think QE. QE is driving everything and thus the markets WILL remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent. I am still calling for some sort of retracement to crack this trend up soon. I was right yesterday when I said I was wrong about expecting a pullback and we set new highs (anyone else tired of moving fibs up every other day or so?).I'm not gonna be swinging anything this weekend with C and IBM Monday. I want a clear trend set (or at least the start of one) and some sort of correction before I jump into anything here.

GL out there and have a great weekend.