Thursday, January 21, 2010

Good News?

After an exciting start to the day that had everyone hopping, the day would up quite uneventful from 11:00 to the close as SPX and other indexes sat on support and would not budge. For the bears the good news was the dip was not bought up with any fury (yet). for the bulls, there was no good news other than a strong support level. Does anyone recall that the unemployment report was this am? (LOL- what an afterthought that has become).

Other than GS's blow out, the big news to me was the O's speech basically attacking the banksters. As Denninger puts it - To President Obama: FOLLOW THROUGH NOW! The O has been a man of many unfulfilled promises and I'm quite surprised the market did not laugh off his (what should be idle) threat. I have no reason to trust the man. For once, I fully agree with the O. We saved their asses and they should be eternally grateful. It will be interesting to see1) how aggressively they push back and 2) who is actually running the show up there. Will they hold us hostage again? What leverage (financial blackmail) will they use to sway congress from even getting to a vote on this. This begs the question; was it all just rhetoric for the masses? If anything I will consider it a nice gesture and possibly the first brick laid in the foundation of an actual recovery. Naked cap also has“President Obama: It’s Not Just the Words!” Krugman is on this page as well. Washington's Blog - I'll Believe It When I See It (In the Fine Print) (this is getting rather humerous now - boy our president must have a ton of credibility!)

Another positive development is the delaying of Helicopter Ben;s confirmation. This is quite possibly the second brick in the foundation of recovery (of course a full audit of the Fed would be nice and abolishing the Fed would complete a whole wing of our ficticious recover hose we are attempting to build here). I think this is a must read from Zero Hedge. Scandal: Albert Edwards Alleges Central Banks Were Complicit In Robbing The Middle Classes As I am speculating the rhetoric and finger pointing for the blame is going to get very heated in this election year and the blame game hot potatoe will a fun one to keep track of. 

With Brown winning Massachusetts, this has been the best news week since like 2007. I'll report the good stuff to. I'll actually shout it from the roof if and when it happens. That may be three bricks in the foundation! (we got a long way to go.)

Back to reality.....

We got a lot of problems. One that gets little focus is the pension issue. In Escalating Pension Crisis Will Bankrupt San Diego Mish brings to life an enormous issue. You see underfunded pension obligations was a big issue before the crash and is now even worse after the crash and CDS debacles. If you thought unemployment was bad, wait till you get a bunch of retirees that can't afford shit cause corporations and governments neglected their fiduciary duties to get the pension pot right (uh - they had TWO bubble scenarios to get this done). "The core issue is unsustainable pension benefits. The system is broke. Toying around with little cuts here and there will not help. And as bad as things look now, they will look even worse after another stock market plunge. Unions in general are attempting to hold the status quo as the day of reckoning rapidly approaches. The realization phase for unions will be brutal." Now there is another crime, the unions misleading their members that all is well. It ain't and how sad it is that the members don;t get it yet after two years of this crap.

Calculated Risk is one of the few blogs that actually took the time to mention the (un)employment report this am. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase - Zero Hedge hit home the most important fact (as always) in Initial Claims Misses Estimate By 42K, Emergency Compensation Explodes By 652K Over Last Week "The combination of initial, continuing claims and EUC for the most recent period is a record 10,701,794 Seasonally Adjusted  or a whopping 12,021,880 Non-Seasonally Adjusted. The double dip is here, and unfortunately for Obama, he is all out of stimulus bullets." The way the administration is attacking this problem you have to ask, does employment really matter?

The most shocking story I read was last night  - Democrats To Seek Stunning $1.9 Trillion Increase In Debt Ceiling To $14.3 Trillion  That would be the icing on the cake now wouldn't it!

And for you market timers Deutsche Bank On China: "First Rate Hike Coming In The Second Half Of March"  I've been pointing to March for some time as the end of P2 (nope, I have somehow not called a top yet). I'm not a hopium addict. I just think they have another trick or two up their sleeves (remember they do control everything). All the signs are there and even price now. Maybe reality will slap me in the face and I will wake up. When China raises rates (I suspected they would first) we either must follow or get out of the way. When rates go up the market will implode.

In case you did not already know this - Ron Paul: After ‘CIA coup,’ agency ‘runs military’

Have a good one and GL!

"Based on the lower low, the futures and the daily indicators I have to vote for further weakness. 1118 to 1115 would be a good spot to look for." - who said dat this am? SPX low 1115.08.