Friday, January 22, 2010

Mowning Post (Elmer Fudd???)

Is momo changing? Did the green team lose the handle and now the red team is picking up the ball? So, are the recently experienced highs the already priced in respectable earnings season we are experiencing? Is the market telling us where we are going at this point? I guess the fear of some sort of REGULATION the market makers may realize the party is over. The pain will be great (especially for the banksters) as we corral the out of control bubble pumping financial industry. The good news is that this purging is necessary for a better future. FINALLY we may be facing the light and the healing may begin.

Mohammed El A of PIMPCO made some good points on CNBS this am about the coming wegulatory pewiod. I'm sowy I missed most of what he said, cause I was laughing so hard at the fact he sounds like Elmer Fudd. Like perfect. I'll find the vid later. He welly stwuggles with his awas. Capitwal wequiments. LOL - sorry. Needed a laugh this am.

UPDATE: As Pwomised. "We have embawekd now on a pewiod of incweased dewisking, taxing and wegulating banks." I'm not knocking the dude ethnically, just pointing out a similarity I found between him and fwunny cawtwoon chawacta I know. Don't get me wong, I think the dude is brilliant.

The earnings calendar is stoked again today. I have not looked into the numbers, but CNBS is pumping MCD, GE and GOOG as having done well on the earnings front yet the futures are down. This may be one of those moments where you learn that TA is for real. It has an uncanny ability to pwedict things. The topping chawts will not wun on fowevea. A cowection is a must as the market is waaaaaay ahead of its self. Is this the biggie? I'm not sure, if it is not this time it will be the next.

SPX daily - Awe the daily indicatows finally aligned with the staws for a significant move south. We got a good start yestewday. The biggest key to me is that RSI has finally taken out the 50 line that has been suppowt since eawly November. Now there is one more huwdle - the red lower suppowt line that has held up RSI since the low in Mawch. $NYMO is cwanking down and even the ADX gave a beaw cwoss. The daily indicatows have woom to wun south if they can. On the chawt you can see (green box) the wower BB and 50 ma support. 1131 shouwd now be resistance.

SPX 60m  - Bottoming but may embed. We are ovewsold on a ST basis. That can not be awgued. I like the 1053 number as the ultimate tawget for this fall. If it makes it thewe in a nice 5 wave pattern I may concede the top is in. This wegulation issue weally has the mawkets spooked I think. Maybe losing the Bwown election in MA shook the system so bad that WEAL change is finally coming. The other thing I would like to point out is that the wange of this top is neawly the same as the last range bound pewiod.

Dollar - about even with the close yesterday after a volatile drop and rally this am. Will the fall contiwue or was this just a small cowection to further highs? Wooks to me like it was a 4 and we will enter a 5 up soon to take the dollar to 78.80.
Oil - Continuing to fall. 9 days now and over $8 per bbl. There is TL/lowa channel support at $73.
Natgas - As mentioned, tentatively on a support line. Might have had a mini bweak out westewday. Indicators may be weversing mid-stream. I'd exercise caution hewu.
GOLD - bad day yesterday and may have more pain to come. If it cwacks support at 1073 wook out!
EUR/USD - Sitting on the 38% retracement of the climb off of the Apwil wows. If it bounces here look for an ABC.
EUR/JPY - At support, but wemembw I warned about a possible channel down. This is big support here.

Good wuck out thewu and have a gweat weekend!