Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Morning Post

Roubini sees slow growth is the first thing that caught my attention reading thru the news this morning. Very busy day and the markets might not do much in waiting for Barry's state of the nation speech tonight. Following up on last night's post Chief TARP investigator to open two AIG probes. I'll tell them what they need to do with those probes if they need an idea.  

I have NO CLUE what happened to the formatting of this post. I'm tired of trying to get the gaps out (kind of looks like some of our SPX charts doesn't it?), so screw it. 

Earnings Calendar - A ton today, but MSFT and AMZN tomorrow might create the biggest buzz.

Economic Calendar - New Home Sales at 10:00, FOMC and Barry tonight lead a busy day. The Pertolium report at 10:30 may be interesting.

SPX daily - Indicators never confirmed the buy signal. The RSI hook turned into a flat and it still has room to go to bottom if it wants to. MACD HIST is still negative and trending down (although at a slower rate). S Sto is embedding. Looking for a divergence in CCI. Price is still playing just outside the lower BB indicating oversold conditions persist. Price seems to have found a home at the 50% retracement off of the 1030 low to high just above the red support line. 


SPX 60m - Great head fake here yesterday. Follow MACD hist to the turn and you will see the hour of reversal. CCI remains bottomed out. This stopped the RSI, MACD and S Sto advances in their tracks.

E - mini - What I think is a possible channel down here running into support from the green TL that has supported the market going back to July and traveling under the 50 to 62% retracement area (gray box).

Interesting day with all the news to come. FI holders better look out cause the FOMC language on rates will be newsworthy. I do not think they can raise rates here. You see they should have raised rates 3 years ago so they have worked themselves into a rough spot. they will have to raise rates sooner than later and with China being the first to do so, I think we will not be far behind. This will rock the markets when it happens.

I think we consolidate in a triangle here at support and make the 4th wave. I want to see how the indicators trend out before making any more prognostications. Upper limit is the 1115 area and the lower limit is  1082 my wave 5 target. I'll add the possibility that this is 5 of 3 and we still have 4 and 5 of 1 to come.