Sunday, January 10, 2010

Look Into The Futures

OK, a minor explosion that will really piss off all those looking for a fall on Monday at the open. the minis (and everything else) seem to be going ape for some reason. Marketwatch reports, "Gold futures climbed by as much as $24 an ounce in electronic trade Monday morning in Asia to touch their strongest intraday level in more than a month, as a further weakness U.S. dollar and strong trade figures from China lured investors." For a deeper look into the China numbers Zero Hedge reports - China's 2009 Trade Surplus Falls A Record $100 Billion 

The e-minis are showing a classic throwover on a strong move to the 1148 area. You all know I have been pointing to 1214 SPX for some time, but now I am beginning to question if the 1350 pundits are right. To be honest, this market will go where they want it to. Looking at the possible count on the minis, this could be a 3 of 3, really. 

The Green wedge is experiencing throwover (or breakout). the yellow divergence line on RSI is toast and the new lower blue support line may have to burst before any further downside can be expected. This means that the divergence that everyone was looking for to set the top may have been a head fake. 

Looking at /YG gold futures breakout. It is quite clear. After putting in a good retracement and getting the gold 950 talk going good, the headfake may be on. this one may be worth watching. 

So they say the dollar is getting crushed. Let's take a look. I would say so. Now, will the correlation return?

And is oil reacting? Yeah, I would say the C store owners will be all giddy about being able to raise the price of petrol on Monday morning. 

And what about NATGAS? Wonder if that cold snap is affecting supply (more than the shutting down of the production)? Ooops, that would be a 10% price plummet since Friday's high with a nice gap down over the weekend. Go figure. 

See ya in the am. Now get some sleep.