Monday, March 31, 2014

Morning Charts 03/31/14 SPX /es

If you can't tell, lately I've been letting the news slide a bit up here in the post. There are multiple reasons for this. First, the financial and economic news is little more than a rinse/repeat scenario that's been going on for a bit more than 4 years now. Follow the Fed/Taper ON/OFF is what it is. Second, the MSM news is not worth reading. Third, the alt news that is delivered below in the commentary by each of you is probably unparalleled on the net (thank you). However, I have had a few local and electronic complaints about my lack of news coverage, so I am going to make an effort starting next week to deliver a few more (here, here and here) documentations of what I am discussing. I also will try and spend a bit more time on the cash charts as well. I ignore them to a degree, cause I have such a good grip on things by simply using the minis that I tend to ignore cash a bit.

On to the lie -

On the travel computer this week so things will look a bit different in the presentation. I updated this chart a bit last night. I did not find anything new when charting up the minis on this computer. I'll start with a brief overview of how we got where we are (that regulars should know by heart by now). 

Minis Daily - Blue channel off the 667 lows grows thru two rising wedges (QE 1 and 2) and takes us to what you see now (QE3 and QE4eva). What should have been the end game and the top near 1474 (concluding with the yellow wedge below) is where the nightmare begins. Note that yellow wedge support off the 1068 low back in 10/11 and where it comes thru the chart today.

So we go -

Blue channel
Yellow wedge
STB's Red rising wedge of death
Beige rising channel
Green wedge
and now Purple rising channel

Minis 4hr - (same chart as always, just zoomed in) - Blue LT multi-year channel resistance and rising red wedge of death resistance are overthrown by green rising wedge in the second of 4 major technical overthrows on 12/31 of 2012. Everything from this 1771 point has been even moar bogus than the move off 1474. Anyway, the first taper ON top hit and delivered our only correction since Noah sailed the Arc it seems. This led to the current rising pink wedge formation. The Ukraine crisis led to the falling blue channel in the rising pink channel. All of this is happening in the top of the rising red wedge of death, just above upper LT blue channel resistance.

Minis 60m - same chart as above just zoomed in - All last week STB was on a consolidation call thinking price would stay above pink support and below blue resistance. This is happening as upper red wedge of death resistance is in play with the backtest of the busted green rising wedge support. Man there is a lot of stuff going on up here. The HnS failure (did not happen) last week with 1844 neckline was a bit disappointing, but these are more bullish formations now than bearish it seems.

Minis 5m - (same chart) - All key points are very clear when we get super zoomed in. After all the background above I guess you now can see how critical each diagonal on this chart is. Here we are in the consolidation zone above pink and below blue challenging red resistance and backtesting green busted support. The gap up this morning and the move thru 1859 is a major power play by the Fed. What happens at the 1868 top and blue 1870 resistance above is key.

More to come below -

Have a good week.

GL and GB!

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