I'm going with the falling wedge

I'm going with the falling wedge for the complete A move of 2.1.2. Then B up and then C to the 750 or (hopefully) the 731 area. This could turn into a falling channel with the top of this intermediate run up if it extends and gets the gap fill.

The breakout and gaps in SDS

All the brownish areas are GAPS! There is one more above in the 112 area and one below in the 66 area. You can see the breakout of the channel down clearly with the huge gap up yesterday. That was some pent up frustration. IMO this is the beginning of a larger formation that will be a pennant leading to lower lows as P2 expands and 1.2 plays out. It is possible that the channel will get back tested, but I am doubting that due to the steepness of the slope. The retracement zone from the last fall and a good target for the top of this 2.1.2 run is 95 to 100 (38.2 is roughly 90).

GL today.

How does 1.2 play out? (updated chart)

Update - I added prices to a hypothetical situation. If 1.P2 topps out truncated at 999 (the inverse of the bottom) near the 38.2 retracement I may freak out.

SPX support levels (see notes)

SDS Chart

I think we've topped.

I am of the VHO that we've topped and the sell off begins Monday or Tuesday. The pop up some are expecting won;t be big and if it happens it will be brief. Lots of charts (of the 86 I chart) are above 61.8% retracements, indicators are topping out and rolling over, wedges are ending or have ended, key resistance lines or trend lines for previous channels are being tested, SPXA50 topping out, CPC rising and various other items have me pretty convinced the end is now or very near. The two charts above are just a sampling of the things I have mentioned above. DO and RIG have begun the pull back already. Will oil lead? BAC and C are forming pennants already that will fail IMO. Another thing I am seeing is that the pullback may not be as large as some are predicting. Just the way the channels and retracements lay out it appeares that the pull back will be shallow IMO. GL this week.

Update - I just looked at the futures and SPX is at 805. Off 21 and 2.5%. You can see from my posts earlier that I thought this would be it! Let's see if I was right or if the PPT proves me wrong.

Just a quick thought.

3/28 - Updated my charts thru FRO. What I am seeing is confirming my suspicions that the market has topped (so far). Lots of ending formations and formations that have ended. So far the pull back looks to be decent but not anything that is gonna be too severe. Some calling for one more pop up to 850. I'm not there, but not ruling it out either. Getting excited about next week and what I am seeing. Have a great weekend.

Just looking at things

OK - some have us forming a H&S for the push up to 850 after 4.1 for 5.1. I can go for that, but I just dont see the push there. I'm thinking 5.1 truncates. Something "news worthy" may just pop up at "any time". Like the 792 level?. You never know. I just see the market as overbought (for two weeks) and the indicators are struggling to reload. Weekly's still heading up, but dailys finally topping out. May fav is the SPXA50 is about to hit 400. What I like to call the "Kiss of death". The sure sign of overboughtness. It is not there yet, but any push higher and this will be in place as well. I'm not screaming for a fall now. Not just yet. In the first chart above that blue rising wedge may need to play out. In the second chart the light blue trend line and the 25% channel line need to break. In the third chart you get a better view of the trendline from chart 2 and the possible red channel that may mark the bottom of 4.1 fakeout. You can see I am charting some different views of channels and wedges (as I always do). These are to give me a "what if" feel. I've given up on prophesizing this 1 wave up. It has fooled everyone, but I'm of the opinion that it truncates. GL trading and thanks for the views. Have a good weekend.

My thoughts at this time.

The lines are for illustration only and not targets. Looking for a very zig-zaggy fall cause all of the support (see post below) below. GL.

Roubini Says Stocks Will Drop as Banks Go ‘Belly Up' From Bloomberg

Roubini tells it like it is. Listen and heed the possibilities.

VODEO:
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=video&T=Roubini%20Interview%20&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/v1pgho8sGPuU.asf


ARTICLE:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=aUzSQ01UhV6s&refer=home

This is Crap!

They used to call me Dr. VIX. I read it like a book. Did not look at it once today, because it is on so many of my charts. Uh, how did we miss this one? Thanks to someone on Kenny's site for pointing this out. Talk about a RED FLAG. CNBS was all over this one, wrong. The freaking game is RIGGED. Now go read my post below. I'm gonna go throw up.

Trying to understand the late bounce today (PPT?).

Ok, so I was feeling great. The wedge broke and we were falling as to plan, so at 3:45 I got up to take a "break". I came back from my "break" (which included a good read on Fibs in this issues of Stocks and Commod) around 4:05 and the market was up like 20 pts. WTF? I said. I said it again. Let's go to the chart to determine if this was a PPT induced event or was it just programmed trading set to kick off at a specific level.

First chart I note how Daneric had forcasted a potential back test of the red channel and then up for B and back doen for C for 2.1. He's spot on right now. The intersection of the falling channel and the red channel almost precisely stopped a roaring bear move in its tracks and flung it back up like a rag doll.

Second chart shows in detail how the market fell to a 61.8% retrace (actually a double fib retrace), at the bottom BB, at the 50ma and at the gap support near 790 (note it was also very near the target line I drew for the wedge in an earlier chart). Now look down at the indicators in the first chart and see how the turn appeared exactly at the trend lines drawn on the indicators. Clockwork baby, just like clockwork. I mentioned in a post last night that this run down had the potential to be very bumpy as it was filled with support factors. Welcome to Bumpy Road Down.

So, the reason for the turn was valid. Look at all the factors I've listed. Pretty impressive, but why the violent rejection? A bounce I get. That's easy. A bounce like that off of a major fall off an incredibly overbought market on a day with a horrible bond sale and China and the UK talking about a unified currency or some shit that is utterly ridiculous, now you are bringing the PPT into the equation.

No fund manager of hedge fund is going to be purchasing at the top like that without "knowledge" of something big or they are in protection mode (which would be suicide). Who buys at the top? Idiots. Are there enough idiots out there to move the market like that? Uh, NO. Someone was protecting something (some are barking about end of qtr statements that need to be juiced up so we get a run up). If you are not a believer or if you poo-poo the PPT you need to begin to take a second look. This market is manipulated. It is a rigged game.

Rant time -

I am a perma bear, but I know to play both ways. I have learned this lessong and do not live on a one way street, but this is BULL SHIT! The Rolling Stone article was great. Pauson and the Golman crew are playing a shell game with our money and Congress does not give a shit. Do you think they are gonna give back the "contributions" that came to them and the lobbyists via the TARP funds? Puhlease! Fucking Bull SHIT! Two faced fucking bastards that we put in office. And the SEC was on top of everything all along. Fucking A they were. Fucking Bull Shit.

Something bad is happening to our country now that may be irreversible. I'm not gonna bring my whole New World Order opinion into the blog just yet or the possibility of the anti-christ (666 bottom - dark skinned muslim) hanging around. Yes, I read and find that stuff interesting but stop just short of believing, but when the evidence keeps building it gets harder to ignore every day. (sorry for the minor rant, but they are fucking up our country and there is nothing we can do about it - I will have a large post on this one day).

Follow the charts and play the trends. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em.

Good fucking luck.

Update

Bouncing off bottom of channel and near target for wedge breakout (Black heavy dashed line) and at 61.8 retracement.

A Case of the Runs

Here is 1 of P2. I have identified a channel up with 25% lines shown and the rising wedge at the top with the blue dashed target for it (A of 2.1?) and a retrace from the bottom with the mauve (?) box as the target zone. E touch of the triangle is off the chart, so the retrace zone will be moving up. Good luck.

So much support

Ok, let's assume we're in 2.1 down here. What lies ahead to stop the fall or at least make for a bumpy ride down. There are speed bumps all over the place.

We took out the 10ma. One of may fav indicators for a trend change. Does not always work, but if you are trading under it you are headed down.

Then we have 803 support.

Then we have the BB 20ma.

Then we have the 50ma at 784 (which most want to see conquered).

Then we have the 38.2 fib retrace at 781.

Then the gap at 772.

Then the 50% retrace at 768.

Finally we have made it to the lower BB currently at 764.

If we blow thru the lower BB the 200ma is sitting at 757.

The support at 755.

The last line of defence is the 100ma at 746.

Note I have left out some key support lines.

Well, I would have to say the bears have their work cut out. Indicators and wave counts are in their favor as I see them. The target for now for the first corrective A is 764 - 770. The lower BB. 731 still stuck in my head as a number for 2.1 bottom, but that is a SWAG at this time.

Good luck!

THE CHANNEL

ES - Interesting how when drawn with the quarter lines support/resistance shows up. Looks overbought on this daily chart. The smaller channel we are currently in is that blob on the right. The ES channels out better than the index. If we are to test the .25 line in the chart, 731ish might be in play eyeballing it for bottom of 2.1 of P2 (for those of you still in P1 - a test of the lower channel is your dream boat). I added SDS, EEV and BGZ late today in small amts.

Good evening and good luck.

The possible H&S play out

OK - those of you that follow we know I like to dream up these things. BUT since we are topping a 1 and the 2 corrective is on the way take a look at the set up in the above two charts. It kind of fits nicely. There are no targets at this time since I just threw this together, but if the 2 wave correction takes us to 740 range it sure would make a good set up.

Good luck today.

The case for the fall - or not.

I like my wedge backtest scenario from the post below. While digesting this 7% up day I thought I would go looking for what I missed. Well, it turns out I missed the wave count and the suprise announcement from out fearless leaders. What have I found on this journey?

Bulls: ma10>bb 20ma and trading above both, the 50ma has crossed the 100 and 200 ma's, the 100 and 200 are narrowing, weekly SPX RSI has crossed the bear market trend line and MACD is in a bull cross while fast STO is at the bottom, no true divergences yet and on the monthly it looks like the MACD histogram might put in a shorter candle while RSI is headed up.

Bears: Possible back test, out top of BB on 60m, rising wedge with throw over on E touch, in wave 5, 30m topped out, 1m put in 4 gaps (if not more) today, SPX in retracement zone from 943 top, 1/2 gap fill nearing 826, SPXA50 over 300 (up from 29), CPC super bullish, daily indicators nearing topped out state, VIX at 42 solid support, VIX did not fall in the late climb today, VIX at 61.8% retrace from last top, VIX daily looking bullish, and the market is slightly overbought.

I reluctantly added some SDS at 3:58 today. I am 40% short now and looking to add the rest soon. The overbought conditions, wave 5, the VIX holding 42 and the back test are my main drivers. Getting my ass kicked by some BS announcement that won't help anyone but the super banks is just not right. I'm happy that the market went up, but it would be better if it were deserved. Form your own opinions. I have given both sides a decent look.

Good luck today.

Back test flashback

OK - I'm having a flashback. Remember when we left wave 2? Remember the backtest at 943 top? Go look at your chsrts. Remember your angst. Remember when Annoyed was annoyed? this is what I am thinking now. The backtest of the rising wedge. Gap fill at 827 and then 840 to 850. From there you will get the bigger fall. Indicators are all bullish and the govt intervention BS combined with the false enthusiasm surrounding (supressing) the truth will take us higher IMHO.

Good luck.

SPX 60m What to look for

Well, it finally turned. I was beginning to think it never would. The double top at 803 and then the wedge breakdown condirming the divergences in the indicators made for a perfect short entry. Now will it continue? The other prevailing question is where are we in the count, 5.5 or 2 of P2 and where in that wave down?

What's working for the bears? MACD, RSI and ROC are all solidly heading south. MACD is still pretty high at 5.88. RSI is back under 50. The ma10 is under the BB 20ma and we're trading under the ma10. SPX still has not retraced 50% off of the 714 low. CPC is finally turning from the most bullish point in ages.

What's working for the bulls? Futures are up decent (at this time) Vix is approaching being overbought. SPX trading near bottom of BB's. The 50ma has crossed both the 100 and 200 ma's. All these ma's will provide additional support. My $$ G SPX 60m chart shows how SPX is usually held back by the interaction with the 200ma. This time it ran higher above the ma more than any other time in P1 except for WAVE 2. We might be in the 2.1 wave here of P2. Good support nearing the retracement area between 758 and 748.

What do I think? After digesting Dan and Kenny's fine work and a few others.looking at everything, and since we've had roughly a 5% pullback in the market and it may be time for a breather I'm looking at a consolidation period that confuses everyone (this is a less sophisticated way of saying what Kenny thinks). Possibly some form of triangle that coils to the next fall. Volume has been on and off and will likely reman that way. I'm going to speculate that the bulls put up a good fight, but the bears bring it back to at least the 741 range before the next serious move up. 712 is not out if the question yet. It appears that everyone has given up on sub 700. There will be a pop, but it won't be much of one though. 60m S Sto is bottoming out (and could embed) but the other indicators still have some room to fall, 30m looks ready to run but the daily is topped out and the weekly VIX MACD has a bull cross going. This cross might have the power to drive the market thru the serious support that the ma's and retracement areas will provide. Getting back under the 200ma will be a fight I'm betting. SPX may want to lift early in the week, but the fall will continue. Folks, everything sucks and the market knows it. Greed will take the market up higher than it deserves, just not till after earnings season has finished IMHO.

Good luck.

Another view

Nice big channel. It may need a backtest upon breakage. Don't get too worried there.

This is how I see it.

You can see a post below how this has changed. Not much. this is IMVHO how I see it. The notes are from earlier this week. I'm still not ruling out a touch of the lower trendline.

CPC - remember this chart?

You stocktockers remember when I discovered this nugget? We'll know tomorrow if the SPXA50 is as good a predictor as we thought it might be. The waves might not be 4 and 5, or will they? I'm having a tough time giving up on 4.5.

C

Sold at 3.11.

SPX and the 200ma

Just a picture

Where are we now REDUX!

All charts courtesy of Stockcharts.com

I mislabeled the B in the 30m chart and forgot to thank Kenny for the RSI trick on the weekly.

I'm sufficiently pissed off. I'm finding it increasingly more difficult not to be in the P2 camp, but still in P1. Got to get thru earnings next month. One thing for sure is that we're now appropriately set for some negative divergences to show up on the indicators possibly tomorrow.

The bull cross of the 50 over the 100ma caused the reversal today (first chart in stockcharts). Still overbought. Double topping at the 780 level. Those two ma's now add an extra layer of support to get thru on the downside. I'll add one more thing - the RSI cross of 50 on 3/10 might have been the trend change for P2, but that is yet to be determined. 5-3-5 to 804 is what it is looking like more and more (to me - Kenny has a quintupple zig-zag with a twist and three flips). Remember I am not the best or even a good counter - I am a pattern seeker using indicators learning to count the tough ones.

The weekly chart above gives some options to add to your confusion, but it is a good road map with lots of scenarios. The 30m chart shows the NEW rising wedge. The last one was perfect with overbought conditions that kicked may ass. Will this one betray me (us) as well? Is this one over already?

Still short. May add longs to hedge. Will add more shorts at top if it ever happens.

Happy St. Patty's Day.

What is this fall made of?

What is this fall made of is the question. How strong? How long? Well, to answer that question we have to find the answer to another first. Where are we in the count? Well, no one seems to be quite to sure about that. P(1), 4.5 or 5.5 are the three possibilities and they will each deliver a different result. As far as my preference, I have none. As far as my thoughts, I do not know. All I know is what the chart has delivered for the past two weeks and when this move down stops, we'll all then have a greater degree of confidence as to where we are in the count.

Very overbought conditions finally came to roost at 774 SPX. Where have I heard that number? Was it my March 8th post? "As for my target of 4.5, 774 to 807 is it." Thought I heard that number somewhere. I had begun him-hawing with 771 like everyone else, but held true to the number. Overbought, AA helping after hrs with a dividend cut, falling out of the wedge and all the indicators in a nose dive. Sounds easy right? Don't be fooled and get all giddy about new lows.

Now lets get to where we are going from here. First we have to figure out which bottom to take our retracement from 667 or 672 or 717. Uh oh, three bottoms? Yup, I could throw in a couple more but won't. How about key support levels? 732, 724, that zone from 710 to 715 all are valid. Uh oh, lots of support levels? Yup, I could throw in a couple more but won't. What was that you were saying about three scenarios for where we are? Yup, I could throw in a couple more but won't. I thought this was gonna be easy? Nope, nothing easy about where we are right now.

Sorry about that last exercise, but it was partly for humor and partly to describe how difficult it is to determine just where we are gonna stop. I lied above. I do have a preference. I have been guessing 5-3-5 or zig-zag all along, and lord knows how long I have been spouting off about how hard 4.5 was gonna be when we got here to figure out cause 2.5 was simple. I do not think 4.5 is over just yet and all the stocktockers spewing 625 targets, get a hold of yourselves. We gots to take babuh steps heugh. Work this fall down retrace by retrace, support by support and when the indicators say it is time to get long then you get long just like we got short here at the top. Thus, I am not predicting a target for the fall, because I have NO CLUE where we are in the cycle.

I'll pay attention to the indicators and when they say turn and where they say turn we'll then have a better idea in the cycle of life. I'm still voting 4.5, yes. I think this fall will be less severe than most. If we take out 710 (which I am not remotely thinking about right now) I may be come a believer in 5.5. I'll watch the 60m ma10 and BB20ma interaction. As most of you know the ma10 is one of my favorite indicators to watch. You may be late to the party, but I guarantee you'll be at the right party.

Let's start with SPX 732.40 as the first target and work our way down to the 715 - 710 zone. Watch the indicators closely (I'm sure I said that already). At this time I actually prefer the zig-zag off the 731 back to retest the 774 and possibly still be in 4.5. That is what I really like, but I'm not married to it. Watch the indicators and the charts and do what they say to do. Don't get caught up in the bottom calling mumbo jumbo. This is not the place to make a call or get over convicted to one side or the other. I'm short in SDS, BGZ, EEV and some other stuff. I'll peel some off as the indicators tell me to. I ain't skeered to get lung ethugh.

Good luck and keep your powder dry (especially for the bull run that is just around the corner).

What's happening?

First look at the indicators on my $$ H SPX - Daily - One Year chart and the box I drew. Indicators at or approaching trend lines that with the current wedge/double top formation should cause a reversal. I think my $$ I SPX - Weekly chart tells the best story. Look at the indicators not the chart. If RSI breaks the LT trend line a real rally will be in place (this was learned/borrowed from Master Kenny). If not, then the down trend continues. For this reason I'm not gonna place calls on individual equities this week. I will update trend lines etc, but no calls. We're entering a brief period of uncertainty that if you gamble you could lose big. The rising wedge, 60m overbought and the daily indicators at trend lines should cause a ST reversal will throw us down Monday. As for 4.5 playing out and exactly where we are in the wave count is a mystery (sorry, but all the EWT counters are going in different directions now and the trend there is breaking down). I still like the 771 to 807 target for another turn down. Things have improved, but don't get too excited just yet. Let's see how earnings do this qtr.

Gotta go play the Wii with the kids for a while. See my VIX weekly chart with a possible STO bottom and other indicators turning that confirm the trend down.

Looking for the bottom

After looking at Daneric and Kenny's stuff, I started looking for the bottom. In my post below from 3/10 Why am I perplexed I noted some strange things that may have proven to be more right than wrong. I was perplexed because of being blinded by bearishness when the charts might might have been telling me to be bullish. I built this chart and then added the wedge and count. It is quite possible that the E touch is in on the falling wedge. I have not given up on my What's Happening post wedge from below. So many points to consider. In my search for the wedge I have two counts now. One will be right, just will have to let the market tell me. Fortunately we have the ability to play it either way! The whipsaw on the weekly MACD indicator had me confused as well. Well, maybe the bottom is in and that was a signal. At least now my keys for breakout and bottom marking can be better defined. We still have a long way to go to get out of this mess globally and the bullishness of this run may be just another head fake. If wave 4.5 violates the blue dashed top channel line, I'll most likely assume the bottom is in. I'll point his out now and here - REMEMBER THE BACK TEST if it does break. That may set the ultimate bottom on some type of capitulation move. The charts will tell us. Like Craig says, trust the charts and keep emotions out of it. Have a good weekend.

EEV

Based on the post below, the sell off and falling wedge and the indicator's positions, I purchased EEV at $49.30. This is not a recomendation to buy or sell. Just something I did with my $$. Trade at your own risk. don't be stupid and do what someone else does. Do your homework and keep stops tight.

IMVHO We turn tomorrow.

SPX at top of rising wedge and all indicators in the cheap seats. I'm thinking 5-3-5 to the top of 4 at 774 and we're due to pop off some steam. We're at a good resistance point.

Oh, how bout that falling wedge on the VIX? 60m indicators topping out, but dailys still look good. Don't get to excited about this reversal. This is not the big one. That will happen next week.

Good luck and keep your powder dry for 5.5 down.

UPDATE: I added target lines on the charts at stockcharts. Thanks.

How 4.5 might play out

UPDATE: I have updated this chart at stockcharts and have drawn some dashed lines as possibilities. There is a blue dashed that forms a steeper rising wedge. If the weekly and daily SPX indicators keep rising I think 750 SPX gets taken out. That is pretty bullish. Above 741 I'll begin lookig to leave longs. At this time I think we rise off the pullback this morning. Still in longs. As I have noted if we take out the 712 range and you are long I'd be very careful.


Of course this is a pipe dream, but as many of you know I like to try and find the patterns and possibilities as early as possible. I found this triangle that works well with what 4.5 (or iv.3.5 as Craig (who's Craig?) pointed out on Stocktock last night) needs to do and with something that will throw the market down when the pattern ends. The rising wedge that is forming is too wide and would requite quite the run up, so I went this rout. A throwover on the e leg to DE's 741 would be just fine. This still works in my Whats Happening? scenario post below since E can come up short of the trendline.

Good luck.

Why am I perplexed?

This is all based on the assumption that 4.5 would be a brief one to two week recovery and not protracted over a significant period of time. Let me start with the VIX. If the VIX breaks down from the triangle then the pattern is broken. This bull pennant (with significant violation) becomes the red channel for the most part or possibly a descending triangle. Or on the other hand do we call it a bear pennant that is breaking down which might lead to the assumption that 5 is over and the 666 bottom on the SPX is in? I fully understand that all this can turn at a moments notice (and it will have to as you will see in my conclusion), but the daily indicators on this chart (combined with other factors like CPC and SPXA50) are showing a potentially significant move North for the market. So what happened to wave 5? Why is it not the VIX bouncing off the lower black trend line and up thru to the gaps at 54 and 71 that should mark the ultimate end? The potential failure of this triangle bothers me.

One last point on the VIX. On the weekly chart there is a positive divergence on the MACD histogram, the S Sto is turning up and trying to cross the ema 20 (one of my fav indicators for a turn), ROC is at 0 and RSI is at 50. This would indicate a bullish turn for the VIX which I'm assuming is going to whipsaw a weekly chart? This actually fits with the VIX remaining in the wedge. Go figure in this market. I guess my solace is that Kenny proved he is human and so did Daneric at the bottom of 5.3.5. Even Dano after a magnificent call all the way down was looking for the VIX pop to the first gap. Maybe he was left a little miffed as well? I have no idea how either of them do it. They are incredible.

Now lets look at a longer term chart of the SPX. This channel is widely accepted and has been seen on many charts. I assumed the back test of this channel would mark the top of 4.5 and the turn to the bottom. SPX paused at the channel and in the last hour today made the push to close in the channel. That is a big powerful move. Another unexpected event in a weak market. This move opens up a door of opportunity for SPX to climb away. The rising wedge should pull the SPX back some and then guess what forms on the next move up? A pretty impressive H&S pattern that would throw SPX up to the 770 range with a roughly 50 point move. I have mapped out on the SPX chart how I see the zig-zag playing out to my perceived 774 top.

So why am I so confused? My pretty picture that I had all worked out in my mind blew up in my face and now I have no clue as to how this will play out. Maybe being a perma bear got me in this mess and I am missing something. I thought the back test of the channel and the VIX bottoming out at the wedge would make for a nice situation to cause the reversal for 5.5, but NOOOO. Now were going into uncharted waters that really make no sense to me.

Based on the potential move of the SPX into the channel and the potential breakdown of the VIX, I believe that it is going to take a spontaneous move by the markets that will cause a capitulative move that no one will be ready for. Something external will have to drive the market to lower lows or we have an extended 4.5 and 5.5 that takes another three months to play out. That can't happen. So what's gonna blow up the market? We'll speculate on that another day.

Guess I'll have to keep the learning hat on for a while longer and rely on Daneric the great and Kenny to guide me thru the troubled waters again. Comments and suggestions or any therapy ideas are welcomed. Keep your powder dry and good luck.

What's happening?

Sorry I have been away, but work life and play have had me hostage. The falling wedge play looks good to me. This may be a pipe dream, but the more it plays out the better it keeps looking. At one time I had his as a decending triangle, but the wedge it became. The current bottom is also touching a falling channel that has been in play since wave 1 bottom. We climb up for 4.5 then the fall for 5.5 to the bottom of all bottoms just looks right. As we continue the pattern trading ranges narrow and to come off the bottom we need a catalyst and what better catalyst than a falling wedge to propel us back up. Ah, don't forget the back test! As for my target of 4.5, 774 to 807 is it. That is too high according to Kenny, but he's only 10pts under me. I like the intersection of the upper trend line with the 38.2 retracement and resistance as the target. It does not have to touch this line it just looks good (maybe too good to be true).

On a side note I am struggling to believe that 3.5 is over. While it most likely is and the positive divs look really good, the indicators on most charts still look like crap. The pop for 4.5 should be a pretty quick ABC or zig-zag. Have your powder dry for hte fall of 5.5. Good luck!!

Sorry

Between the snow, kids projects and baseball I have not been able to post. I am looking for 3.5 to end tomorrow or Wednesday. I am assuming the size of the recovery will be larger in time than points. Pay attention to my first chart at stockcharts. When the price exceeds the ema 10 and the ema 20 crosses STO then the ema 10 crosses the bb 20ma recovery will be in full swing. It could be violent and have some power coming off severe oversold positions. I'll be playing TNA and QLD. Good luck today.