Monday, February 9, 2015

Morning Charts 02/09/2015 SPX /es

Vegas analogy this morning to explain Greece - Roulette - Some know how to play it. Rather simple game. Pick a number or a color and GFL. It seems to me the global financial powers that be have been betting black at the Greece table for 6 years now and red keeps hitting. With each loss they have used the standard doubled down tactic, knowing that red will eventually hit and they will win. 

The problem with this method of gambling is that you have to have enough fiat to continue the game. Well, the global financial powers pooled their paid forward tax collections to play the game, and it now appears that some at the table are finally starting to see this as a losing proposition. Some want out of the game, and it appears even the dealer may want out at this time. 

When you have a conglomerate (Fed/Japan/ECB et al) backing a bad player (Greece) the losing must stop, but in this case they've gone "black" too many times, have too much at risk (that's a funny - too much worthless fiat at risk) and can't stop now. Now even the player may want to change teams (only Russia would have them, but only to destroy the competing conglomerate). What a mess they have on their hands. 

As I've been saying for years now, do the math. It does not and will never ever work. A country about the size of Alabama has the potential to take down everything. 

BDI to SPX - Our Greece shipbuilders must be killing it here. Lowest EVER! All is well!

On to the lie - 

SPX 60m - And just when they get everyone thinking ATH .... STB stubbornly remained (by a hanging thread) to my bearish stance. All is not well folks, I've been on that soap box for months now and, other than everything falling apart, the #ECBQEfail to lift was the first big clue that things had changed. Then came failed fed speak. Now, the previous problems are starting to come alive again. I stick to my contention that only a taper reversal (or QE of another name) will do the trick at this point. It has to come from a Fed action and nowhere else. this means all other players are eliminated from the game at this point. 

The overthrow of the falling triangle is still alive. If so and if this pattern is correct then 1900 or 1890 should be the target. If this is right, then the STB rising wedge (red) discussed back in November will have played out. After the easily called Thanksgiving ramp, they fall to set one last low 1972 to set wedge support, raise it for the easily called Xmas ramp the E point 2093 to complete the wedge, fall in January and break lower support and backtest wedge 2064, one last bull trap (#ECBQEFAIL) and now, if all is well in the TA world the real fail happens. Add that all the resistance here is under that old blue rising wedge resistance I've been discussing. Price is in a mine field here without the Fed coming to help. The failed rising wedge to a descending triangle under weekly negative divergences is a technical nightmare setup.

More to come below. 

Have a good week. 

GL and GB!

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