Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Morning Charts 02/05/14 SPX /ES

ADP, been there - done that. It matters exactly zero, but that will not stop the prognosticators from singing its praises or touting its predictive ability (NOT). So we missed the target. It was the weather's fault of course (and will remain the weather's fault for months to come - cold or hot).

Why am I discussing or even mentioning this bogus BS? Cause in the game we play, unfortunately we have to take their "data" into consideration, real or not. Employment moves politics, politics moves the administration, the administration moves the Fed, and we all know the Fed moves the market. In the end it is a bogus number that is meant to set in motion a chain of events that they want to happen. It is a tool they use to steer their ship. It is a covert way of being able to implement policy at the "whims" of economic necessities as dictated by the (purely manipulated) data.

In other words it's horse shit - every singe data point is crap  made up to meet their political needs. This is why STB has preached for years for you to follow the Fed. They are part of a consortium that controls the data that sets the policy that drives the markets in whatever direction they want them to go.

Right now things are getting a bit unruly. The taper ON situation that was "priced in" - remember taper ON is bullish! - propaganda is not working in their favor. The markets are expressing their anger at the Fed removing the hopium direct infusion.

After all, in this market that is oozing excessive liquidity - sorry, scratch that - there is no liquidity - how can anything fail? Well, when something like 75% of liquidity is false bids and offers and those bids and offers are there solely (illegally) to hike prices so the central banks can skim off the sheeple's investments, we got problems. See How Many HFT Quotes Does It Take To Execute 3 Trades? (Hint - Over 2 Million)

Bottom line as I have been warning, everyone has an itchy trigger finger. At some point they all will head for the exit at the same time. As predicted here years ago, we did not see true market capitulation in the fall of 2008. We will see it in this next fall, and we're right on the edge of the cliff. As some great person once said, "You ain't seen nothing yet."And to summarize a long story, markets crash, false flags and wars come, marshal law follows that along with retirement plan confiscation (Obummer may or may not become dictator). End of America as we know it (unless we revolt).

On to the lie -

Minis Daily - You have to break these moves up into segments and play them as such. The call from the top the the STB red line of death was the first section. We're in the middle of the the next segment - the move to the next obvious support point the 200dma. Then there is a potential third segment to the 1640 area, but let's not go there yet.

Right now I'm sticking with my 200dma target for this portion of the fall. How we get there is the question? It looks like there is a potential grey wedge that could lead us right there. I really think the red line of death will want a backtest before the 200dma cracks, but then again it is not necessary. You must remember, it all depends on what they want and when (see above). 

Right now it looks like "they" are finally losing control. We're one STB "Event" away from disaster for the markets and the dreaded aftermath that will follow. They know this and so do we. They are swimming with some big sharks down here. I'm not so sure what they are doing allowing this failure. My worst bear case scenario is as discussed - in order for the markets to move to new ATH they needed to create some space so price did not have to move vertically. Of course the only way to stave off this crash will be to un-taper and possibly increase QE. So there are two roads, and we must let the Fed tell us which one they will take - crash and end it all or one last stick save.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

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