Friday, October 4, 2013

Morning Charts 10/04/13 SPX /ES

Nothing is jumping out at me this morning surprisingly enough. I guess I'm a bit resolved to wait and see mode. We're in Government shutdown mode and broke, but all is well. We're on cruise control, the markets are hanging in there, the BLS data looks just fine, all is well and it's just gonna get better, right? I mean why worry about any of this crap going down? I need to just live my life and let the government take care of everything else. No need to fret or concern myself over any of this mess. It can't happen here. I need to go charge more shit on my credit cards to make me feel important and to satisfy my inner Imelda Marcos.

With so many balls in the air, what is there to do but wait for something to hit the ground. The charts are ready, The debt bubble is ready. MENA and the EU are ready. China is ready. Our dysfunctional government is ready. All the dominoes are finally in position and are lined up to tumble. They now just need a push. Something needs to happen to derail the unregulated crime syndicate.

On to the charts

SPX Bullish Percent - One of my favorite top indicator charts. I think you'll be able to see the divergences clearly here. When price keeps rising and BP is falling, then things are not good. And when BP hits this extreme level and price is there as well, you know .....

STB's CPC Chart - Once again, extreme one sided bullishness is usually not a good thing and ends in a not so nice manner. Here is another place where the market overthrow I point out almost daily (from January 01 this year) is painfully obvious. Three sell divergences have been blown thru, and the bullish stance is way over heated. This chart more than most really shows the corruption and overall control of the whole system in which the CB's manipulate the long side to destroy the short side. The one thing that is missing but is bring set up for the final blow is a negative divergence of the VIX to SPX.

Minis 60m - The HnS, with another HnS in the RS, which broke neckline support, backtested 1687, and held the 38% retracement is still hanging in there. The bears are actually in great position here, but sadly the Fed and algos will recognize this as well. The big concern for everyone is my second target the 1652 to 1647 support area. If this goes I believe it will be game over, 1600 will come into play, so I expect them to fight to retain this point. As long as we're above that red support diagonal anything to the upside is possible, event the next potential STB point at 1672 in mid-October. A falling green wedge has developed, so I'll be watching this formation for developments. 1703 is the key for bully. If price gets over that, then the odds of another ATH come into play. The more I sit and look the more I want to believe the top is set. I'm pretty scared right now that we're gonna get the STB event during this government shutdown period.

More to come below.

Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB!

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