Monday, February 25, 2013

Morning Charts 02/25/13 SPX /ES

Looking at the Key Macro Events Coming This Week posted on ZH things look busy and IMO Tuesday could prove a rocky beginning to the week. The Bernank testifies to the Senate Banking Committee that day. Late in the week Thursday and Friday are chocked full of potential market moving data. This is also a big week for earnings as retail comes in hot and heavy. I guess we'll find out if all those student loans and disability checks have been put to good use or not.

Nothing like a stealth post Friday close when no one is watching UK downgrade. We have not seen the post Friday close trick in a while. Is it time for that stealth maneuver to begin a comeback? Who cares as bad news is the best news and the market will greet it with joy, cause that only guarantees that more printing will come despite recent hints at the Fed's discussions of how to end the easing.

Turbulent times are coming folks. Well, real turbulence, not the printed over reality we've been dealing with for the past four years. The can can not be kicked much further and even the Fed is beginning to figure this out. Everything they have attempted to "kick start" the economy has failed. Now it is time to stop easing and they can't. The stimulus addicted (re: entitled) economy is running out of easy funding as the debt mounts to unsustainable levels.

Going backwards at this time is not an option, so they will continue to print till it just implodes. That is all they can do at this point. Social unrest is coming with either scenario, so they may as well make it as painless as possible for as long as possible regardless the consequences. As discussed here many times in the past their last out is the confiscation of the retirement system. The $19 trillion in savings is what they have their eyes on as the ultimate bailout. Then we become truly socialized. Why else do you think they are going after the guns so hard? They are gonna really piss some people off when they start confiscating 401k and IRA assets.

On to the markets -

Not much to say here other than they obviously can't let the markets fall without all their pals getting out at the top and shifting the overpriced market to as many shills (re: individual investors) as possible, all the while levering their short entries. $85 billion a month from the Fed can only levitate price so much. There is apparently a limit to how high they can drive this thing. I don't know, with the SPX sitting a mere 65 points from all time highs with never before imagined debt, stimulus spending, unemployment, entitlement, blah, blah and more blah, You take a look around you and at your personal situation then look at this chart and then tell me what is real and what is not.

Monthly SPX - The '00 top was a disaster, but at this moment the technical (and economic) set up for this top is worse than the set up for the '07 top.

Daily SPX - it is what it is till it isn't. Markets are set for what should be at least a 10% corrective here (if they (re: the PPT) can withstand such a barrage). 1366 would be the number I'd like best for a traditional real corrective, but there is nothing real or traditional about this market.

Minis 30m - 1491 was what I was looking towards and got 95 for this last fall (yes, I really want the 67 to 60 area but will still have to wait). I'll take that. No reason to get too excited in a market that "can't" fall. She needs a catalyst I keep telling you. Maybe this week will deliver. March is setting up for a potential real disaster. They are setting themselves up for the kill. Remain patient. They are about to have to deal with the fiscal cliff can kicking and 5 years of BS. This will get interesting.

More to come below as usual. This could be a very interesting week.

Have a good one.

GL and GB!

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