Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Morning Post 01/07/13 SPX /ES

I guess you could say that Alabama crushed Notre Dame the way the Fed crushes shorts these days. What a joke that game was. I can safely assume that most SEC watchers and fans knew what was coming. At best ND would be a 7 win team in the SEC and I could easily pick 5 or 6 SEC teams that would have won that game last night.

What I take from the hype and build up is the falsehood of the MSM building up a great mismatch to get you to show up and believe that ND actually had a chance, so they could sell their wares and maximize profits. Not much different than those scuzzy advisers selling you professional money management at exorbitant fees so they can move straight on to the next sucker (See 88% Of Hedge Funds, 65% Of Mutual Funds Underperform Market In 2012). Oh how gullible are the sheeple.

Lies and more lies are all we seem to be getting these days. What happened to morals and principles? What happened to calling a spade a spade? (note- for modern day disclosure/clarification purposes due to the right wing crazies jumping all over every possible iteration that could be construed as remotely biased - I am referring to playing cards). Why can't one just come out and say what they think without having to be so damn PC all the time?

Speaking of morals, how about Bank of America Freezes Gun Manufacturer's Account, Company Owner Claims. "“After countless hours on the phone with Bank of America, I finally got a manager in the right department that told me the reason that the deposits were on hold for further review -- her exact words were -- ‘We believe you should not be selling guns and parts on the Internet.’”" This is not the first instance, nor the last, of the banksters becoming the moral guardian of the USSA. I'm sure BofA would be happy to back all those ammunition manufacturers selling o the DHS though.

On to earnings which start tonight with AA. Funny, AA acronym, in relation to the market starting earnings. Addiction is a bad thing and not one to joke about, but I can't resist the connection between the bulltard stock addicts and the farce market they so believe in. Those people really need some help before they end up in the poor house.

STB's abbreviated quarterly earnings statement - you have heard it before many times - I'll leave my darling INTC out this time - LOW HURDLES set by lowered guidance that goes unpunished during the quarter due to QE lifting all tides. One penny beats and revenue misses does not make for a bright future. Rinse/Repeat. The revenue misses are finally (after four years) coming home to roost as companies can not get any leaner (as discussed in my candy example yesterday).

Let's look at a few charts -

CPC - You see the historical buy 'em and sell 'em levels. Now look at the last three tops and apply CPC levels with the divergences. What do you get?

Bullish Percent SPX - When BP diverges to a rising price, it is not a good thing. This chart nailed the last 115 or so point fall and has not really improved much with this recovery.

STB's BTFD/STFR chart - Another great timing chart I have. Care to look at the divergences to price in three of my favorite timing indicators? This chart does a great job (esp in conjunction with the past two) in timing major turns. When you include price's movement, the breakdown of wedge support (black) and now the backtest at the double top, you get a particularly nasty combination.

Minis 4hr - A current look at the minis shows price reversing off pink channel resistance at upper market yellow resistance. The large gray boxes are open (island in this case) gaps below.

Aside from the banks pulling more accounting gimmicks this quarter and the risk of lowered hurdle beats, this quarters earnings should not be all that spectacular. I still like the odds of a market pullback to force congress to have to approve a debt ceiling raise in yet another form of financial blackmail.

GL and GB!

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