Morning Charts 01/31/13 SPX /ES

Nothing but everything pushing my buttons this morning. Indifferent? Confused? Disenchanted? Annoyed? Not sure how to describe my feelings right now. I'm tired of the same old shit just getting worse, that would be the best way to describe things. I'm tired of the lies and MSM BS misleading the sheeple day in and day out. I'm tired of the theft. I'm tired of the corruption.

Like Faber keeps crowing about, it will all end horrifically one day. Then no one will say they saw it coming. It will have been, "impossible to see". No one could fathom that endless printing would have had such consequences as we lose reserve currency status and the death of the petrodollar goes the way of the Roman denarius.

Its coming. I think it may be time for STB to get back on the doomsday rant train of old. Screw the markets. They will turn when something (catalyst - possibly CDS - leading to the "event") forces them to, but not till then will anything material transpire.

Morning Charts 01/30/13 SPX /ES

One word - catalyst. Not till then. They maintain absolute control over everything.

SPX Daily - Overbought and overthrowing soon to throw up.

Morning Charts 01/29/13 SPX /ES

Nothing to say this morning. You have heard it all before. Debt bubble will burst and be worse than any previous. We're on road to ruin and have no way of turning around. Government is totally out of control. Markets are a big distraction to the gun grab and totalitarian takeover of our country. Keep a very watchful eye on the currency action to come as the invisible war begins to escalate.

They are destroying the constitution, taking your rights and soon your guns while the DHS buys 1.6 billion bullets and 7,000 fully auto assault rifles (the same ones they don't want you to own). Obummer is supposedly cleaning house of top military brass that will not fire on US citizens. We're moving right on into north Africa to set up base there to protect our "energy" resources. No mind the drones and bombs and accidental deaths etc... it has nothing to do with big oil.

I'm just about fed up with all of this and I believe you are as well. Heck, it is apparent from the recent record gun grab that most are awake and aware of what's happening. We're one spark away. We're close to the system breaking down and lawlessness in the streets. They are not going to be able to keep all the entitled and unemployed in place much longer.

Morning Charts 01/28/13 SPX /ES

Running with the pack. I believe this will about sum everything I have to say up in one tidy little package. And I will quote from the clip below," Nature in her infinite wisdom spares a few."

Open Weekend Post 01/26-27/13

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

Not much to say (actually too much to say) as markets and frustration (over everything from gun control to fraud to everything) build together. I'll do a serious chart review this weekend and see if I can come up with anything telling. You all post your links and findings below for everyone to see.

The Italian CDS event, the China bond event and the AAPL miss all this week (not to mention several other negative events) and markets continue to climb. No fear! Catalyst, we must have a catalyst. The MSM is spewing their mind numbing bullish venom. All eyes are on the golden ring at the top which means most are no longer looking at the bigger picture and you know what that scenario brings.



They are WAY out of control folks. Way out of control.



Have a good weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 01/25/13 SPX /ES

Not much to say other than the markets are at post crash highs, the Fed's balance sheet just topped $3 trillion and the most recent Gallup poll has Americans most negative on the nation and economy in 30 years. Just more things that don't add up folks.

I'm paying little attention to the LTRO payback and believe this is little more than a dog and pony show trying to illustrate how well "all is well". When you put too much lipstick on the pig you can take some off without damaging the illusion. I have a feeling that this will be little more than a reshuffling of the deck. If you think Spain or Greek (or certain Italian) banks can pay back any of the LTRO funds  and survive you are mistaken. See Moody's warning here. Unfortunately Egan Jones will not be able to provide the only unbiased opinion on this subject for another 18 months (which may be a great time table come to think of it).

SPX Daily - They have pushed cash over 1500 and the overthrow to the max. I either look for a reversal near here or for a pull back and then one last bull trap run to the ultimate double top setting unmistakable divergences that market forces will not be able to ignore.

Minis 30m - Green channel into upper blue LT channel resistance. Overthrowing pink upper channel resistance.

Minis Daily - Kinda nasty looking, but this is all the stuff I'm following. Note the big blue channel up that runs the length of the chart and the tiny little green channel in the upper right (charted above) that is our current position.

Have a good weekend.

GL and GB!

Where's the beef? Morning Charts 01/24/13 SPX /ES

I can't figure out if I have writer's block this morning, if I am simply too disgusted to write about this trash we call a financial system/market anymore or if what wants to come out of my mouth describing the markets and our whole situation would be so harsh and foul that your computer may melt as you read it.

All is well? No shit? Really? You want a side of horse meat with that Mr. Muppet? Here I go on another hidden inflation rant. At least we're moving on from candy bars and cans of tuna. We're moving straight to horse meat, but before we get there let's take a brief look at the post The High Price Of Understated Inflation on Zero Hedge. I was pleased to see the post open with, "The reliable data which policymakers and the public need if effective solutions are to be found is not available. As Tullett Prebon's Tim Morgan notes, economic data has been subjected to incremental distortion;". Why not just cut straight to saying the BLS data (or pick your/any government supplying said data) is BS.

Morning Charts 01/23/12 SPX /ES

They have created a monster. That is about the only way to put it. An unregulated beast driven by crooked banksters who relish power and greed above all. Yes, the word devil comes to mind these days when I think about everything that has occurred from beginning to the present surrounding the financial crisis.

Pure evil? Maybe not that far, but spawn of evil is a definite. Watching The Untouchables last night on Frontline was a nice refresher course on the crisis and a disgusting reminder that no one can or will ever be prosecuted for anything. So you give a bunch of greedy, immoral banksters an environment with zero regulation and 100% surety that you will never be prosecuted for anything you do, no matter how bad (and that may even include murder), and what do you think you will get?

And that has led to major bubble number three. Here we sit just shy of 1500 with 467 of the 500 stocks in the S&P 500, that's 467 of them, above their 50dma. Strong baby. This market is kicking ass and taking names man! Sure looks like we're headed for record territory. Yup record territory with 50 million of food stamps, soon to be an 18 trillion dollar deficit and not one GD thing has been fixed regarding employment or the economy. I ask, what's wrong with that picture?

Morning Charts 01/22/13 SPX /ES

Well, we have a new(ish) president and while most were focused on him being sworn in (publicly) on MLK day, I personally thought his being sworn in on Blue Monday (the most depressing day of the year) was much more appropriate. Not sure if Jupiter's conjunction with the moon last night was a heavenly sign or not.

Not sure where to go with market discussion today. I think it is more appropriate to focus on the coming dollar devaluation, coming inflation and the government's rapidly developing police state. The markets are a mere distraction to reality. With the advent of things like Kindergartner Suspended Over Bubble Gun Threat making even the MSM (that may be my first link ever to ABC), maybe things ARE getting that bad.

The charts say we're closing in on a major top and so does reality. Well, that is if reality even exists in this world anymore, cause the central planning cabal now controls everything. We are at their whim, no more, no less. Not until they fail will this fantasy end, and when it does it will unveil the darkest most terrifying reality. Till then all you can do is prepare for the worst, note the totalitarian takeover and deal with it the best you can.

MLK DAY

i had a dream       last night and it was not that my keyboard and computer would not cooperate this morning   more to come when i get this issue straightened out

Open Weekend Post - 01/19-20/13 SPX /ES

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

I'm at a total loss for words (again). How far can they push the farce is anyone's guess. I still contend that 1375 is the line of reality that nothing should survive over, and when 1434 was eclipsed I just threw my hands in the air. As for now, LOL, all you can do is laugh. Like I said back in early August, "we're entering a period on unprecedented manipulation". Boy was I right.

Have at it below. I'll be updating charts this weekend and should have another scarry top presentation next week. Believe it or not it will look just like the last three or four, but worse as they push this overthrow to the max. As for calling a top (which I have not and am one of the very few left not to), like I say almost every day, you have to wait on a catalyst that disrupts their control. This catalyst will lead to the "event". Till then you must remain patient as you watch the destruction of everything related to finance and economics. Unbelievable.

I came across a very interesting film last night - Ancient Aliens Debunked. Chris White takes you on a wonderfully educational adventure trashing the History Channel's show and item by item throws the Ancient Alien's UFO historians theories under the bus. It was eye opening to me and very well presented. So, I highly suggest you AA fans take a look at this. To put it simply, I will never believe anther word the AA show ever says. You may want to visit the sight Ancientaliensdebunked.com.



Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 01/18/13 SPX /ES

Well, CNBS finally started the 1500 hype this morning. All is well (reality no longer exists). With The "Big Three" Banks Are Gambling With $860 Billion In Deposits you should feel safer now than ever. I mean, what's the chance of them having your deposits invested in the stock market and losing everything?

Seriously, they have their your best interests being looked out for. They You want to make the most money, right? Put it this way, your friend gives you $860 billion to hold for him and keep it safe. What's the first thing you would do? Of course you would put it all in the stock market. Especially "this" stock market. Geez, where else would you put it, UST's?

Whoaaaa Nellie! Wait a minute, back it up. They are taking your deposits and investing them, right? Well who's making the money? Your interest rates are a like historical lows right? Let's look at Morgan Stanley posts profit on surging equity trading. "Revenue from sales and trading rose 43 percent to nearly $3 billion." And who's money is it that they are trading? And whose profiting and who isn't? Welcome to finance 101 for the 21st century.

Mafia Banksters and Morning Charts 01/17/13 SPX /ES

No disrespect to either, but we'll purge a college football player's social and private life to no end to see if a girlfriend hoax existed, but Sandy Hook, with far more twists and turns and impact on reality, is a taboo subject? Welcome to the show.

Why am I gong "there"? Simple, cause everything is a show, from how the government wants to influence you to how Wall Street feeds you endless lines of crap to get your fee income. I suggest you read The Most Ridiculous Forecast You Will See In A While.

I'm not capable of such eloquence, so read TD's take on this post first, then I'll Shanktify it for you. "Stanley notes, 58% of firms are expected to raise their margins YoY through 2012, and then consensus sees a stunning (record-breaking) 76% of firms will raise margins in 2013. If that eye-watering buffoonery is not enough to raise some doubts at the market's implied ebullience, then a reminder that we have seen this divergence from GDP growth and margin growth before - as, simply put, the squeezing of costs to improve margins inevitably plays out down the chain (aggregate supply and demand lags) and increases the load on government as safety net living-standard-provider-of-last-resort. The bottom line is simple - margin expectations must fall and given the dour outlook for top-line growth in a stagnating global economy, that will expectations correction will drop straight to the bottom-line. Of course, prices will be nominally defended by a herd of talking heads expecting moar multiple expansion."

Inflation in a Can of Tuna and Morning Charts 01/16/13 SPX /ES

A few weeks back I brought this up in conjunction with a ZH post, and last night Mrs. Shanky was letting me have it on the subject as well - hidden inflation (remember my favorite candies and breakfast bars rant?). One of the things that has sold her on the fact that I am not a lunatic and have some common sense was when I had her (and recommended to the STB readers) to start buying stuff, anything, back in 2010 before it started getting really expensive.

Yesterday she made some tuna for me to munch on. I got the container out of the fridge and heard, "That's 5 cans of tuna." and in a tone that I know usually leads to more lovely commentary to come. A few bitter moments later and after a few nasty glares, I had heard about white and dark and oil and chunks and flakes and all this stuff that only a shopping/cooking expert could know.

She was pissed. She felt cheated. Where did her tuna go? Were was the quality, white chunky, less oil (blah, blah, blah ........ and a few more blahs) tuna she used to get. This tuna sucked and to make things worse it now took 5 cans to make what 4 used to make.

Morning Charts 01/15/13 SPX /ES

Well, I was looking for 1456 as support yesterday morning. I'll take a day late. Minis continue their minor tumble thru various near term and long term support points. I expect little movement on the eve of JPM and GS earnings reports. In fact, you should probably stay away (unless you are a scalper) till they come out of the closet report. Should be dullsville till then.

Something I have been throwing out for over a few weeks now is the thought that they would have to somewhat crash the market (in yet another form of blackmail) to get the fear mongering up enough to make the debt ceiling passage a non issue. Then I saw this in ZH this morning, Fitch Issues Another Rating Warning For AmericAAA. "With precisely one month left until the early bound of the debt ceiling crunch and a possible US government shut down and/or technical default, and with M.A.D. warnings from the president and treasury secretary doing nothing to precipitate a sense of urgency (which will not arrive until there is a 20% market drop, so far consistently delayed but which will eventually happen), here comes the most toothless of rating agencies, French Fitch" (emphasis mine).

Morning Charts 01/14/13 SPX /ES

Talk about staring down the barrel of the gun and not flinching one bit - Well, maybe that is a slight exaggeration. If it were you or me and the credit/debt monster was knocking on the door we'd be running out the back fast as possible. Our congress and the current administration on the other hand, they got this one. No fear. Balls of steel and all, they are ready to stand firm and tackle this debt crisis.

Well, that sounded good on the surface didn't it? If I can write crap like that I got a future at any MSM outlet I prefer. Let's rephrase the above - the lying, stinkin and cheating assholes in DC are not gonna do one darn thing to address the systemic budget/spending/debt problems we face. Not one damn thing. They will rely on the printing press backstop that they know (at the very least) will be mandated.

Let me see, as a representative of the people it is your job to do the impossible, but since you are a heartless, corrupt, self-serving bastard who's more into insider trading and setting up the rest of your career with some globalist corporate behemoth, you defer to the easy way out and simply print some more. Who gives a shit right? Kick that can baby. In another 2 to 4 years it won't be your problem anyway. You will be out of there. Mission complete, you got your severance package, a fattened stock portfolio and a cushy corporate position will all be set.

Open Weekend Post 01/12-13/13 SPX /ES

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

New poll question to the right you need to complete, please.

UPDATE - SPX 60m  - Second divergence is usually not a good sign. Be warned, I've seen 3 to 5 divergences in the Fed years. Two is not good. That small rising wedge may have been it for at least short term. Add this to the divergences on the daily chart below, and, yes, you should be scratching your head as to why Thursday the market did not continue its fall.

Morning Post 01/11/13 SPX /ES

This is all I have to say today -

A Record $220 Billion "Deposit" Injection To Kick Start To The 2013 Market

"And of all major inflection points, perhaps none is more critical than the just released data from today's H.6 statement, which showed that in the trailing 4 week period ended December 31, a record $220 billion was put into savings accounts (obviously a blatant misnomer in a time when there is no interest available on any savings). This is the biggest 4-week total amount injected into US savings accounts ever, greater than in the aftermath of Lehman, greater than during the first debt ceiling crisis, greater than any other time in US history."

I've pointed to this point in time for close to two years at the spot of final failure and what do we get in the face of the FC, DC, Q4 earnings and a gun grab? A record injection. Folks, if you don't get it now you truly are deaf, dumb and blind.

Morning Post 01/10/12 SPX /ES

Off topic for a bit, because I find it very interesting with all the gun grab stuff going around that these two stories have not gone mainstream or viral for that matter. Let me clarify, the MSM won't pick up on any of this.

First, Keith Ratliff, Manager of FPSRussia found murdered. "FPS Russia is a driving force in the pro-gun movement concerning youth. The videos published are very pro-gun, and reach literally millions of impressionable youth showing them that firearms just aren’t for people in movies or video games." Keith was murdered mob style, tied to a chair and single bullet thru his head with all his weapons left at the scene. Keith was awesome and a fan favorite having one of the top three Youtube channels. Maybe it was the fact that he was pro gun and reached so many. Maybe it was the fact that he showed videos like this one, one with the newest drones that may be flying over your back yard sooner than later.

Morning Post 01/9/12 SPX /ES

Minis  15m - Here are your hot spots for today

Morning Post 01/07/13 SPX /ES

I guess you could say that Alabama crushed Notre Dame the way the Fed crushes shorts these days. What a joke that game was. I can safely assume that most SEC watchers and fans knew what was coming. At best ND would be a 7 win team in the SEC and I could easily pick 5 or 6 SEC teams that would have won that game last night.

What I take from the hype and build up is the falsehood of the MSM building up a great mismatch to get you to show up and believe that ND actually had a chance, so they could sell their wares and maximize profits. Not much different than those scuzzy advisers selling you professional money management at exorbitant fees so they can move straight on to the next sucker (See 88% Of Hedge Funds, 65% Of Mutual Funds Underperform Market In 2012). Oh how gullible are the sheeple.

Lies and more lies are all we seem to be getting these days. What happened to morals and principles? What happened to calling a spade a spade? (note- for modern day disclosure/clarification purposes due to the right wing crazies jumping all over every possible iteration that could be construed as remotely biased - I am referring to playing cards). Why can't one just come out and say what they think without having to be so damn PC all the time?

Morning Post 01/07/12 SPX /ES

Ahh, back in the saddle again. Let's light this candle and get it on.

Something I have wanted to mention, that I'm sure you all have noticed over the past couple of years is the hidden inflation we're all experiencing in various goods and services. Have you noticed the XL shirts are no longer XL size. Or have you noticed that breakfast bars are in the same package but a few oz's lighter? How about quality control? All those crushed up M&M's at the bottom of the bag that used to be filtered out? Those Snickers bars that are crushed on the end you would rarely see? (and now you know my two favorite candies)

What got me rethinking about this was the ZH post Guest Post: Inflation Hits Coffee As Brewers Secretly Swap Robusta For Arabica. There are lots of forced "efficiencies" being created at the corporate level to combat the economic crisis. Bottom lines and workers are being maximized like never before. Sadly this is beginning to show up at the consumer level in inferior or lesser quality goods and services than we had become accustomed to.

Ahh, the 'ol bottom line. How far will Wall St. force corporations to go before the system breaks? The financial world seemingly revolves around stock price and increasing shareholder value, and at this time I'd say corporations are the leanest they have ever been. Now the question becomes, are they too lean and if so, can they put some fat back on? (Uh, no)

Open Weekend Post 01/05-06/13

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

I'll be back in the office next week, so posts should improve a bit, and I plan on updating a few charts in the chartbook. I should have a few pent up classic STB rants ready to release as well. Wads of uncertainty continue to mount surrounding just about every aspect of our lives. Reality bites and it is best to stare it down and not crawl in a hole hoping things will get better. They won't. Tough times lie ahead. Be prepared.

SPX Weekly - Either/or pick an option. Either way I think the top is near, and I'm gonna call it this time.

I don't know if any of you remember my call for the great fall in June of '11 (I do LOL). Looking at that candle that no one could figure out adds a bit of perspective to this rock rollin weekly block buster. Those thinking breakout bullish engulfing may want to think twice (or at least consider the past).

Minis Daily - That gray area is an island gap below. If she's going up that should (should I say) get filled first.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 01/04/12 SPX /ES

Updated SPX Daily - I don't think you need instructions to read this chart. If you do, I'll put it simply, it does not look good. Yesterday's candle was not the hottest at all. The double diagonal resistance and overboutght conditions with negative divergences all over the place are telling of a reversal sooner than later. That said, never forget that this market is controlled, manipulated and contrived by the powers that be. We're in the ballpark of a double top, and at this stage of the game it would be the perfect final formation to be the ultimate top,

Here comes the debt ceiling and Q4 earnings. They will need distractions or something. Again one will need to be wary of the fall and the market recovery with yet another 11th hour bailout. At some time the EU and another market lifting stimulus will become reality.

Discussion was excellent yesterday in the commentary. If you missed it I suggest you scroll thru the comments. Might possibly be the best news and info feed on the net. Really excellent day, thanks to all.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 01/03/12 SPX /ES

Again. I'm on vacation,so the posts are a bit light.

Right now it looks like an overthrow with double negative divergences. We've seen team manipulation deal with worse though. The daily, weekly and monthly setups are disastrous. Sorry the charts are not updated. I'll have to get to that next week.

Daily SPX -

Weekly SPX - I gave you this scenario a few weeks ago. Note the negative divergences.

Monthly SPX - The set up here is actually more telling than the last two major tops.

GL and GB!

Morning Post 01/02/13 SPX /ES

I'll be on vacation the rest of the week. so my posts will be limited unless something blows up.

I have no comments on the cliff resolution (if there really was one).

SPX Daily - That candle (23 point romp) the last day of last year could count as a reversal candle. We'll have to see about that. Just be wary. Very unexpected spot for such a move. The bulltards are really getting sucked in is my opinion.

As for the new year, I've been calling the first quarter of 2013 as far as I think they could carry out the facade. Bearish? I'm down right scared shitless of what's coming this year from the markets and the government. I'm on vaca. so I'll hold off the rants till next week. And I do have a few coming.

Remain wary of the Fed. They may need a lift pre earnings to get some clearance. I expect the news flow to be miserable and to worsen as far as I can see.

GL and GB!