Thursday, September 2, 2010

We Just Have To Deal With It For Now

Reality is that the markets are fully controlled by the Breath of Ben and the data manipulation by those that irresponsibly report it, and the media is under marching orders to report it as optimistically as possible(except for Santelli who keeps missing the email). The fact that we've now entered our 17th Weekly Fund Outflow As Equity Fund Redemptions Accelerate is undeniable. Yet, the promise of further stimulus and intervention in the face of the ever expanding national debt, consumer debt, shrinking tax base and imploding RE and CRE values is enough to make you simply shake your head in disgust.

Please take a quick peek at the National Debt Clock, cipher out your portion (and each child's portion if you have one or more - then compare your portion to those on Barry's payroll with more than 10 children and then multiply your "responsible portion" by a factor of say 3 to get what ya'lls portion really is) while you ponder this most recent ramp in the markets and try not to puke all over yourself.

Other facts that are undeniable .....

The continuous revision and falsification of data based on models that are irresponsible and produced by pansies on the government's dole. Rosenberg Explains Why Yesterday's ISM Was Likely Wrong, To Be Revised covers the 1 in 100 event we just witnessed.

Mish chimes in with Gallup Poll Shows Consumer Spending Pullback, Consumer Confidence Levels Below Depressed 2009 Levels ; Back-to-School Sales Bust Says WSJ Yup, even more data to boost the markets here for sure. Let's take a look, "Finally, those weak sales numbers, even if they stabilize will continue to pressure states in desperate need to get tax revenue back up to 2007 levels. It's not going to happen and states will be forced into additional huge cutbacks in public union wages, employment, pension benefits, or all three." Sure sounds like a good reason to rally the markets to me. If you would like to refer back to the tax revenues portion of the debt Clock they are running in the opposite direction. To get more on this pease see Mish's State Tax Revenues Slowly Rebound ... But

Denninger asks the obvious in Housing Numbers - Are They Being Cooked?  "Here's the problem, obviously - Case-Schiller and other "home statistics" numbers related to price paid are all computed off these numbers provided by the local Realty boards (via NAR.)  If the data in the MLS is bogus then so is the so-called "median sales price" and so are Case-Schiller's numbers!" ZH had Are Existing Home Prices Overrepresented By Up To 40%? yesterday which should be reviewed as well. 

Here's a great one from ZH that just hit - TrimTabs Reports Percentage Of Hedge Funds Expecting To Raise Leverage In September Surges "With just one month left in the quarter, most hedge funds continue to underperform the market, not to mention that the vast majority continues to be under their high water mark (most notably Citadel). And with fickle LPs, unbound by lock ups courtesy of the 2008 crash, knowing all too well they can now move their money with the facility of a HFT frontrunner churning AMZN one thousand times a second, threatening redemptions unless something changes in the last month of the quarter, hedge funds are, for lack of a better word, panicking." So, which side of the trade do they lean to?

I must apologize to my readers for a recent inability to accurately forecast the markets. I've been in a bit of a slump, but it is not my fault. I can't just say, "Ben says buy, so go get 'em." I fancy myself as pretty darn good with the track record to prove it, but this bullshit is nothing but manipulated, VOLUMELESS, range bound crap that has NO underlying fundamentals and any technical significance is being wiped away at this time. The friggin markets are controlled and untradeable. If you got it right, more power to ya. To wind up on the right side of the trade these days is more like winning at roulette. Red or Black today? I'll get it back. But right now, calling a long against all the flawed data (to be revised) based on lies and "promises" from the Fed is against my religious and ethical standards.

Thanks for your continued support, donations and the votes on stockcharts. We'll win this battle. It may be a battle we don't want to face, but for the safety and promise of our future it will be some pain we have to take.