Tuesday, September 14, 2010

A Few Interesting Things

Denninger keys in on Want To Know What Fueled That Reversal This Morning? nicely. No kidding, what sent the dollar falling off a cliff and the AUD/JPY on a ramp that would make Peter North proud? Tell me please? QE II baby, a simple PREDICTION that this is going to happen sent the markets scurrying. All is well! The will be riding in on their white black stallions coming to the rescue. I now have two words for that announcement SHOULD it happen, "priced in".

Wait a minute. In the "not so fast my friend" (lord I'm happy college football is here) category Zero Hedge has False Alarm: Morgan Stanley Recants From Its Expectation Of A QE2 Event In One Week where we learn (knew the anticipated QEII was a main driver off the 1040 lows along with some estimated jobs data and a GDP that looked like my freshman GPA - not to be revised) that, "Sorry, no QE2 for at least two months, and most likely not until January, but which point it will be too late to do any actual good to the economy (but not to surging gold prices)." What - a RUMOR? Heavens no. LOL, nothing like a free 80 point ramp for the PPT going into elections on a RUMOR that the Fed would come to the rescue. Oh, about that "priced in" thingy from above - you are about to witness a new term, "priced out". TA has an amazing ability of predicting things and has been pointing to a top, maybe this is it. Hard hats are not optional.

Some of you may have already forgotten that retail sales numbers were released this morning and they were "better than expected" as expected (since the government mandates all first data releases to be "better" the to be revised). Mish has a great post on the subject and brings into question the validity of the "better" data based on sales tax figures. In Retail Sales Rise .4% from July - How Far to Pre-recession Levels? Where to from Here? Mish has, "I wonder how long it will take the Census Bureau to do a major revision, but as it sits, the retail sales report data is totally screwed up and paints a much brighter image of the "recovery" than has actually occurred." I am positive that that statement could become a blanket statement covering all data from all government sponsored sources (just use CNBS as an example of that).

GL and thanks for the views.