Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

No post tonight Little Shanky 1 tuns 10 today! 

12 of the past 14 daily candles are green and we're up 100 points on the SPX (or 835 DOW points). I'm comforted to know that our markets are resilient and even more glad to know the recession is over. All this hogwash about POMO and manipulation is just that. Our debt levels are no big deal and the financial stability of the banking system., although weak, is improving every day. The consumer credit issue is way overblown and corporate sales/earnings should be stellar this year. The RE market is stabilizing and we should see rising sales and valuations coming back over the next 6 months.

OK - what you just read is a script I was preparing to highlight all the major points the CNBS and MSM need to cover every morning. It is all a bunch of shit (except for that first sentence which is real, but still a bunch of shit). Reverse all those ridiculous statements and you have the truth. I think I may have gotten one of my "external" events with the foreclosure fiasco.  Not sure how the government will pressure the legal system to cover this one up, but hopefully we can find a judge or two left with a backbone strong enough to stand up for what is right and allow the truth to come out.

Economic Calendar - Housing Starts Zoom 10.5% in Surprise Sign of Optimism was a surprise (if you want a reality check and not a propogandized POS post read ZH'a Housing Starts Bounce Along Bottom, Hit 598K, Beat Expectation Of 550K As Housing Inventory Surges and now all we have to do is wait till 2:15 and see what the FOMC has to say. 

Boy can they make being a permabear hard these days. I have warned about today's FOMC announcement and the lack of economic data for over a weak now and how that could give the markets a free run. It is amazing what the "promise" of additional stimulus can do to a market. I don't expect the Fed to say anything stupid that will disturb the markets. Today is NOT a POMO day. Markets are wedging and what is and is not priced in from this announcement is anyone's guess.

Daily SPX - (Chart best viewed here) The gray diagonal marking the lows from October and the tops from the April high is possibly the key. Combining that with the weekly and daily upper BBs and several other indicators we're nearing a top. We may not be there, but she's close. the indicators on this chart are at a point where a top can come at any time, but they can also run for a while as demonstrated earlier this year. 
SPX 60m - Well the 30m has run thru like 8 divergences and the 60m had smashed a few of it's own. The markets have run for virtually three weeks without any sort of pullback to speak of. Can this wedge be real? Can the triple top actually have meaning or are the bears wishful thinking that reality will set in and the POMO runs and algo driven ramps just getting warped up? We'll know at 2:15 after the FOMC.
Minis daily - The pink diagonal is the S/R line I'm watching. 
 Minis 60m - 52 should be in the neighborhood. This line is used to provide a range and not exact points. I think you have to put the overbought market, the triple top and this S/R line all together and get some sort of resistance. Under normal, meaning non-fraudulent, non-rigged, non-POMO conditions I would be screaming top is coming soon. The weeklys are even closer than they have been.

The mongo HnS on the range bound financials

I am in the blow off top camp, but still holding to the ABC call where we retrace something, possibly 1100 or to the 50dma) and then have one last pop to the elections. I am not discounting the continuation of this fraudulent ramp to the 1150 area. 1086 invalidates all EWT counts (whatever good that does, cause they are all wrong all the time anyway). Quarter end is just around the corner and that is something to seriously consider. Pension funds are going to go bust if the market fails which is something to consider. The government must have the markets up and juicy till the elections which is something to consider. POMO is alive and well. HFT and bid stuffing is alive and well. Bottom line is the sellers left in droves and the markets have had a free run and until we get the catalyst I have been looking for and until we get some form of impulse selling where the bears can maintain some sort of momo this can continue indefinitely no matter the fundamentals behind the market.

GL out there. 2:15 will be the key. Don't forget Shaky's Dark Side where I call all the intraday actions and provide even more TA.