Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

I hope everyone had a great holiday weekend. So much fun to get away and relax. So suckish to have to come back to this reality.

Economic Calendar -

Not really sure where to go with the post this morning. There is really nothing on the calendar to move the markets till Jobs on Thursday. The EU is apparently beginning to show signs of crumbling again. Global tensions are high. Barry still wanting to spend more money.

So, where are we? Is this just a minor corrective early in 3 of 1 of 3 or are we still playing out some larger 5-3-5 ABC 2nd wave that has more upside to come? A case can be made for ending upside here, as well as one that could take the SPX as high as 1050. Based on the minis, I could reside comfortably with this being it for the upside as price here should roll over and then possibly continue to consolidate. Sadly the low volume ramp playground still exists.

SPX 30m - I think it is time for this chart to cycle down. There is a chance it may want to set a divergence, so be wary of a pullback to pop scenario that sets the table. If not just let that 30m cycle. I think the tide should be going out now. Sadly the bears tend to need a little help and unless something happens in the bond markets or with some currency pairs this could be a really dull week.

The way I see the minis is that they are wedging (yellow dashed top and bottom) and have made the potential E touch high and may simply collapse from here. Well, that is the set up of this 4hr chart that is very toppy. Sadly, I don't think that works out as you can see that the last 5 wave move up (which I think we're completing 1 now) off the 1002 low looks pretty similar to this move and the daily and weekly indicators say more upside is to come.

At this time I'm only willing to give the daily 200ma as upside max. 1030 can be in the cards, not willing to go above that number. I really like the markets to consolidate more here. It can also have topped, but I'm not so sure about that. Let's get this corrective out of the way, see how the 30m chart cycles and digest the strength of the daily charts then to see what sort of trend we can come up with. Europe has been quiet, maybe the EUR or the AUD will have some sort of external effect on the markets that will assist the bears.Let's look for a pullback to the 1080 range and then regroup.

GL and enjoy the short work week.