Friday, September 24, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Not much to harp on this morning. Let's go for a good karma day so we can carry the positive vibes thru the weekend. We're running out of time to be able to do that, so let's take advantage of it shall we. 

Economic Calendar - New homes at 10:00. Durable Goods was basically OK.Remember we're comping bad numbers, revisions are the norm and I personally don't think you can trust anything the government tells us at this point. 

Minis are cracking the upper resistance diagonal. Big 60m candle with bullish 60m indicators and 30m as well. Price is outside the 60m upper BB. Price just busted the VWAP now at 30.5 and is testing 32.5 the next resistance area. Above that there is not much to stop it. There is a chance price will want to backtest the busted wedge and the upper VWAP band near 43 or higher. If it should get carried away there is still that diagonal from the October '09 lows across the recent tops that runs near 55 now. You meed to keep an open mind to that fall having been a 4th wave.

AUD/JPY - weekly 200ma is near 86. I do not expect that to get hit or busted. Testing the 200dma right now with overbought daily indicators basically matching the SPX daily's (imagine that!).Price is also at the upper end of a resistance range. 

SPX Daily - 23% retrace of the move off of 1040 in three days. 27 points in three days is a bunch. I'm proud of the bears (especially late yesterday). SPX did set a lower low near the close yesterday. Let's see if price can stay in the channel down after the open. The indicators here look to have finally rolled over. Form of this pop will tell a lot. 32.5 is the 38% retrace point off the top and 37.5 would possibly make a triple top if it should get there. Most now have the top in and have 1 down completed. Where we are possibly in 2 (not 3 anymore with the pop this am) IF the top is in. 
$DXY - Busted possible HnS neckline last night. with the dailys still weak and the weeklys trending down.

Gold -  1310 has been my target for a long time now. Dig the 13 print on this chart. ABCDE the wedge is done. Pullback to 1060 to 1015 and then buy the hell out of it.

Bears still have to remember the "promise" of possible QE II, POMO, EOQ prints and the election season. All of those give support to the bulls. Bad economic numbers continue to be ignored. Gold and MF outflows where it is tell the whole story. Bulls beware.

As for near term action, let's see what this pop has in it. If it gets over 35.5 I'll be surprised. It will cause oversold 30m indicators to all go buy. I do not like a breakout from here, but I am not ruling it out. Some say the top is in. It could be, but I'm not going there just yet. Sticking with my ABC call (we're in B now) looking for 1116 to 1107 then one final climb. Now, the top can be in and we're in 2 corrective here which would make next week every bearish. I'll throw out that on the minis it looks like that move was only a 4th wave. I have been screaming form, form, form of the fall. That will be the key to tell us if the top is in.

GL. thanks for the views and support. Have a great weekend, and don't forget Shanky's Dark Side where I call all the intraday action.