Monday, September 20, 2010

Tempted To Call A Top

Finally completing a 61% retracement of the fall and price is now in the neighborhood of the diagonal that marked the major lows before the April high and has now market the tops since the low. This is a neighborhood thang not an exact science. Since price tends to stop near this line, price could swing up to that heavy red diagonal running across the April high near 64 now (don't think so, but it is the new bear market resistance line off the top in '07). With POMO, EOQ and the FOMC tomorrow I believe the markets will need a catalyst. I really don't think the Fed is going to screw up the party announcing something the upsets everyone. Note that the VIX is up since 09/15 as well. The NYADV is diverging the way it did at the April top. NYMO has possibly peaked. ADX is close. Most are seeing a gigantic overthrow of the wedge that began in April that can be seen on the daily chart in the post below (to those seeing a breakout - more power to ya). Daily RSI almost at 70 (69.01). TNX is somewhere in the tank. CPC is a tough read, but I think it is bottoming in correlation to where it did in the first bear phase or P1. SPX 30m on it's possibly eighth divergence maybe? Can't wait to see the ISE numbers later.

What is holding me back? POMO, POMO, EOQ ramp, excessive manipulation, bid stuffing, HFT and the elections.IMPULSE SELLING. Not till you see the bears show up in mass will this puppy let go, then we have to watch the form of the fall.

Sorry for all the lines, but this is a work chart.