Thursday, September 9, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

OK, jobs improve (that is if you prescribe to the economic voodoo they use to calculate such things). The markets reaction to the number has been very muted. The minis spiked 6 to 03.75 and since then have done nothing.

Economic Calendar - Natgas at 10:30 and Petrol at 11. This from ZH is kinda nice -Today's Economic Data Highlights: Trade Balance And Claims

SPX 30m - I've been hunting for this divergence to form for about a week now and may finally have it come with the pop this morning. What I'm seeing is a 5 here. The big question is does this 5 end the run or is it just part of a larger corrective. The only way we'll be able to tell will be the form of the fall. If it gets impulsive look out. If not, then look for an ABC to the upper 70's before the next and final ramp to the 17 to 31 area. Either way (barring some massive zig-zag consolidation) it should be ending.

 SPX 60m - Upper resistance diagonal. Indicators with divergences that should hold. Here you can see how the wedge will either form for the pop to the 17/31 range or it simply ends here at this diagonal. This chart looks weak as well.
SPX Daily - Another view of the rising wedge and the diagonal. Resistance is everywhere and given that this market can hold support, but it can not get any follow thru on the pop off 1040 should be a concern for the bulls. The upper BB is driving down on price here. the 200ms is just above. Gap resistance and then 1130 all hang over price here. It will take a remarkable effort for the Fed to drive price thru all this mess.
What concerns me as a chartist/forecaster is that we are dealing with a rigged market going into an election and they can not have a crumbling market this time of year. I don't think they can pull off the ramp here. We have to pay attention to the form of the next pullback. That will be the key. If impulsive and strong, then she's gone and we'll have a 9 handle sooner than later. If it is a simple ABC then another 5 wave structure up will come most likely. I am leaning to the fall here, but my primary call remains the ABC up. I'm betting on manipulation again. If neither materialize, take a good look at that large blue wedge on the daily chart. She could just consolidate into late October.

GL and have a great POMO day (you're paying for it)!