Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Another POMO day. (POMO Schedule here) The promise of QE II, the FOMC on November 03, QE prints, elections and market manipulation continue to make the market untradeable. If you did not know about the latest flash crash in PGN see it here. They have fixed nothing and when it finally goes this time look out.

Financials are finally beginning to crumble again.Without their leadership the rally should be losing it's legs.

Economic Calendar - Consumer Confidence at 10:00. Looking for 52 with a range of 51 to 54.

Earnings Calendar - Time to start posting this link again.  YUM, PEP and AA next week.

Daily SPX - Three wedge options in an overbought market. Green arrows are support. Mainly looking at the 200dma. Get below that and all bets are off.
When indexes all come together like this it is A) not normal and B) usually not good.
Index comparison weekly - I hope we don't have to wait for these to converge. I do not think so as I believe the major top has been set. NAS is a bit out of hand and this comparison shows that it is the most skewed of all the indexes.Where were the indexes the last time USB was this high?
My favorite chart that clearly shows the SPX relationship to TNX, USB and the VIX. This is a recipe for disaster and confirms manipulation and how intervention is literally levitating the market. TNX/SPX equilibrium is now sub 800 SPX. The divergence of the VIX to SPX is painfully obvious and why I think the VIX has been manipulated to a worthless state. 

POMO day, EOQ, Fed on 11/03 and no data tomorrow may help the bulls cause. GDP, Jobs and POMO on Thursday. The bears have been gaining ground at the two sides struggle for control of the markets. 1150 to 1130 range now. I'm still looking for a pullback to the 200dma near 1117. If that cracks all bets are off. Earnings season is just around the corner as well. I still contend they will do whatever it takes to keep the markets afloat thru the elections. The price action has been more bearish than bullish the past week. the bears are trying to sell it, but invisible forces are not letting it fall. When it goes this time it will not be pretty. Till then we have to remain in a wait and see mode as I believe we remain range bound to light pullback going into the FOMC announcement on the third.

GL and thanks for the support and views.