Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Not much to say today other than no POMO (that is not saying the PPT does not have some pare change lying around). Three regional Fed presidents speak today which could make things interesting. EOQ, POMO, elections, earnings season and a myriad of other malevolent manipulative tricks all are threats to the bears and the future of our country. Gold has hit my target of 1310 (pullback then buy all you can then sell it while you still can). Everyone is striking against austerity measures across Europe today which could be interesting.

Economic Calendar - Petrol at 10:30 and then 3 Fed Presidents speak today and all can move the markets. tomorrow is the biggie with GDP and Jobs plu other (and POMO of course)

Earnings Calendar - Time to start looking here again.

POMO Dates - POMO tomorrow.

Shanky's Dark Side - Don't forget my blog where I call the intraday action and provide more charts. 

SPX Daily - Resistance at 1150. Upper bear market resistance line (red) at 1164. Oct'09 Diagonal (blue) resistance. C=A (yellow fib) at 1162. Completed 61% retracement of the fall from the high in April. Wedge ending overbought daily conditions. TNX (pink) is where? VIX (green) is diverging to SPX price (this has not been good in the past). Black diagonals are the second option. Worst case for bears is this becomes a zig-zag or we're not in P3. If we're not in P3 this things ramps to a point where when it falls it simply disintegrates to dust. 

Finaincials comparison - Where is the index compared to the TBTF's? Ireland and other fears from the EU are weighing on the financials and without their leadership the markets should struggle. Well, you would think they would. Of course they are all busy doing that Repo 105 thingy to get their books in order for earnings season (legally or not, but that does not matter anymore).

Nasdaq comparison - AAPL weekly 200ma at 158. Diverging weekly indicators are not good.

Today will be interesting as what the Fed presidents have to say should get some sort of reaction from the markets. Fed presidents tend to speak more truth than their leaders. With GDP and Jobs tomorrow the close may get interesting. Bears have it in them and have been trying hard to pull it back. POMO is proving to be the helium that levitates everything. I am voting for a pullback soon as this wedge ends (which could be any time now). From there I can't go out on a limb simply because of POMO, the promise of QE II and the fact they can't let the markets go before the elections. So maybe this thing pulls back and then puts in the zig-zag to the end of November. At this time I am voting that the April high is safe. I still contend that swinging anything is a fools game and the only reliable time frames are the 5 and 1m charts.

Still looking for my catalyst - 'Credible But Not Specific' Threat of New Terrorist Attack

GL out there. It is a tough game.