Shame on you government for thinking you could "estimate" something and get it right (is that an oxymoronic statement?). They failed miserably yesterday with the housing number "estimate", and as I mentioned in last night's post that you needed to be ready for the jobs number this morning. Initial Claims Miss Consensus, Jump Higher To 465K From Upward Revised (Of Course) 453K With 20 consecutive weeks of outflows (and counting) from domestic equity mutual funds, I would say the average investor has had enough of the lies and falsified data as well.I am so Fing tired of the bullshit the "experts" spew on CNBS.
Economic Calendar - Existing home sales and leading indicators still to come at 10:00. Natgas at 10:30. Volker speaks at 1:00. Fed balance sheet and Money Supply after the bell. Durable goods and new home sales tomorrow.
Yesterday I called for a drop to the 200dma and then a reassessment. We're almost there. Yesterday the market basically closed on the August high support giving the bulls reason to think their run still had a chance. Well, that level will be toast this morning. Next stop (as I called yesterday) will be the 200dma at 1116. The minis stopped right on 1117 this morning and the SPX may find this 16 level pretty quickly. The wedge is clearly busted.
Minis - /ES 60m - Wedge bust and backtest yesterday and then the channel got dusted in that 17 (seventeen) point tumble this morning. The 60m 200ma was taken out, the lower BB was taken out. the lower VWAP band was taken out. Folks this was a major dump and screams the bear are back in play. I have been calling for impulsive selling and the last few days we have seen the bears trying and having more success (even against POMO), yet the success is coming pre-market for the most part. It is happening.
SPX 60m - Looking for that 88ma to snag it at 18. Then the gap at 13 and the 38% retrace at 07. I have been writing for some time about form of the fall any significant break of th 385 retracement and the likelihood of this fall becoming more severe goes up.
Comparing some foreign markets with the SPX. Japan is lagging or are they leading?
Comparing Gold, Dollar, Oil, SPX and the TNX. SPX above oil is interesting. Something should give there, and I don't think oil is coming up.
As for today's action we have to see how well it holds that 200dma. The next stopping point will be the 50dma and support near 1100. Form, form, form and impulse selling, that is what we are looking for. It looks a lot like we has a 1 and 2 off the top and we're beginning a 3. the 38% retrace level is key. The gap at 1110 to 07 area should be important. Will it end at that 200dma? POMO, bid stuffing, and data manipulation still live. In the meantime I'll be enjoying this big red candle this morning.
GL and remember I call it all real time on Shanky's Dark Side.