Monday, March 29, 2010

S&P 500, $SPX,

I hope everyone had a good weekend. With All the action this week (see Economic Calendar below) picking a direction here would be meaningless. Sure the indicators say overbought and the economy is a total mess, but that means nothing. You have to roll with the punches. Play what the Fed and the BD's give you. You are playing their game and have to play by their rules. Easter week, so we have a short week and trading may be light. 

Economic Calendar -HUGE week. With ADP Wednesday (a well timed misleading GS number thrown out some time mid weak and some more BS from the BLS), Thursday will be huge with all sorts of stuff and Friday you should know is the big jobs report.What this all adds up to is a big Monday next week IMO.

Pivot Points - Know 'em.

Permabears, keep your emotions in check.

Comparison chart - SPX, Oil, TNX and the dollar are having a party and gold has decided not to join in. The inverse relationship of SPX to the Dollar broke down back in December. The dollar has strengthened considerably and the SPX has ignore this run. This should change. A stronger dollar is not necessarily a good thing for the markets. I guess their argument now is that the price of the dollar to the market is "relative". LOL, that's funny, kinda like the price of gold being manipulated is "relative" as well.
SPX -Can they reverse the trend in the daily indicator chart? It would not surprise me. Remember this is a huge week as mentioned above, then you have to throw in the quarter ending scenario (they want to hold those balances up for a good statement print). This chart looks really bearish (like the top may be in bearish). Beauty is only skin deep though and we all know what the inside of this monster looks like.
SPX 60m - The 15 and 30m charts are oversold, the minis being up a little over 4 and price sitting on support a pop this morning should only complete the current corrective or flag/pennant that is forming.
SPX Weekly - The weekly SPX chart says that a top could be near, but it still has some strength. RSI5 is above where the market has peaked in the past and overbought. F Sto got a bear cross last week. S Sto is no longer climbing and may possibly be setting up  a bear cross in the next week or two. OBV is at the point it has reversed recently. What I want you to see id the relationship between SPXA50 and the NYMO. While it is not necessary, the last several tops have been marked by a top in the SPXA50 combined with a divergence in the NYMO. This has been very reliable. If we are to get some sort of manufactured pop this week thru manipulation of the employment data that may set the divergence for the top. 5 out of the past 6 weeks up to set a higher high is impressive. Bernanke is proving his worth as possibly the best market manipulator ever (but that is really not that hard when there are no regulations or rules to play by and you have no morals).
Based on the dailys I am expecting continued weakness. Possibly a lot of weakness, BUT with the short trading week and the BS BLS coming, I MUST CAUTION the shorties about more strength in the market. I am no longer swing trading anything. It is much better to hit and run. Watch the indicators and do not be surprised at anything. Until that weekly chart confirms a trend change more upside churn is still possible.