Monday, March 22, 2010

Morning Post

Welcome socialized medicine and the expansion of the welfare state!

I trust everyone had a good weekend. I'm looking forward to some good volatility this week. The Sweet 16 is set and my bracket is busted. I'll do a post for the contestants today.

Economic Calendar - Auctions today and new home sales tomorrow

The Minis retraced 61.8% to 1147 of the move from 1136 to 1165 and held at the 1147 support area as well. They have also completed a 23.6 retrace off the 1084 low. I'm really eyeballing the 1135 level at this time (the 38% retrace off of the 1084 low. My target for the SPX fall, if it should, is 1120 to 1117 at this time.

SPX Daily Chart -Sorry, not going to regurgitate all the overbought indicators below. The warning remains in place that it can move higher. The main things IMO are that RSI14 did crack it's support line Friday, RSI5 is falling, the MACD hist is getting worse and the SPXA50 is above 400 and may have peeked (which usually marks the markets peek).
SPX Weekly Chart - As the triangle plays out. The one thing I have wanted for the past couple of weeks is for the weekly MACD hist to put in a positive candle so the market can top. We got it barely last week. Now if the bears can all get lined up, it is possible for some better downside action. The abuse of the upper BB here last week shows the bulls are pushing the limits and the F Sto is looking to possibly bear cross. The other indicators on this chart are not ready yet, but we are getting closer especially as RSI loses some of it's momo.
I should be screaming top. All my signals that I like the most are set on the dailys. RSI busted TL, MACD hist falling, S Sto bear cross, SPXA50 over 400, blah, blah, blah but I'm not biting quite yet. I want to see it. I am leaning hard to the downside, but I do not trust the manipulating bots that are running the show. Stay nimble. I am still cautioning the bears not to get overanxious quite yet. The turn could come at any moment and it will take volume for a serious push. Sentiment is overly bullish. The top is close if not already set. Look at the triangles playing out. As a trader you have to remain willing to play the PPT's games. You are a moron not to. As an investor you need to have your game plan ready for what you will do at the top. Longs need to have a set pain threshold and stops set.

The waiting game continues. Friday morning was fun (the afternoon sucked as a quad opex went off like a total dud). GOOG may effect the market is they announce something. The HC vote will be in the Senate Tuesday I believe. That may be the day for some better action.

I'll do commod report tomorrow.