Thursday, March 11, 2010

Morning Post

Minis finally decided to turn. It took a while, but they did. Maybe the bears can finally get some traction after the jobs report went thru.

SPX 60m - The divergences here can no longer be ignored. there is a lot of red on that chart below, but you know I do not trade by the 60m charts. You can see the two sets of fibs that give you a good idea of the target ranges that should be in order IF we finally turn near here. 1110 is a nice confluence of the 38% fib of the larger move and the 61.8% of the smaller rise. I added a green rising wedge A-E formation. I do not like it, but you have to entertain the possibility. It almost gets us to quarter end (and you know how they like those QE statement prints for clients). I prefer the ABC corrective ending near here, but if the green wedge does play out it makes a nice double top (confirming the larger double top) and it will allow time for the weekly and daily charts to set nice divergences.

SPX Daily - Overbought but no divergences.

SPX Weekly - MACD hist still not positive. S and F Sto not thinking about turning. RSI5 is at the divergence line. SPXA50 has made it to 400+. This chart says not yet.
So you got the 60m saying turn with all the divergences. You got the dailys topping out but no divergences. you have the weeklys not thinking about turning yet. This all adds up to a near topping scenario that says to me there is a little more upside to come and the market should start churning out a top here. Be patient. the turn is coming pretty soon. 1110 is a good target with that 38 and 61.8% fib confluence. If we are in P2, the 5 wave green rising wedge I have on the 60m chart will lead to the top. That will be it. If we are in P3 and this is the top of the ABC 2 of 1 corrective look for 3 of 1 to reek havoc soon. 

No futures this am, sorry.

GL out there.