Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Morning Post

Portugal takes one on the chin, but the overbought stratospheric market will apparently shake it off. Apparently just a flesh wound. The minis fell hard right to the support line I showed you yesterday morning that runs up from the last major low at 1042.

Economic Calendar - New homes at 10 and Petrol at 10:30

Pivot Points -

I'm struggling with the call this morning. The choppy topping action, consolidation and severe overbought conditions are wearing on me a little bit. Last night I actually started tinkering with some (most likely premature) topping lines on a few charts. Even before I heard the Portugal news I was leaning down today for some reason. The charts are getting really ugly and hard to get a grip on especially on an intraday basis. While my gut is usually very good, you can't trust in anything other than the GS bots runnin and gunnin this market for all it is worth. You have to remain with the trend till it is proven busted.

The choppy consolidation broke out nicely when resistance was breached. SPX put in a massively bullish 60m candle, and I'm not sure that the breakout can be ignored (not really sure if it can be trusted either). That said, you gotta keep on riding the train. Support has been laid on the SPX at numerous levels in the past week. Resistance is futile now at new highs. She may be flying above the clouds here with a tail wind. Maybe she'll run to 1214 and just get it over with finally. Sorry for the confusion this am. Not sure if emotions are taking over or if my alter ego is popping up (no you're not, yes I am, no you're not, yes I am).If we stick with the charts we will not be misled. It is getting hard playing with longs, cause you know you are playing with fire up here. If you play shorties, please don't be a moron and accept huge losses. Have a plan. Set a stop. Take you losses and walk away. Live to fight another day. If you are long, enjoy it while it lasts, you to will need an exit plan soon as well.

SPX Tops and Bottoms Chart - This will allow you so comb thru a ton of info and see what the indicators should show at the major buy and sell levels for the past few years. We are very close. GL!