Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Morning Post

Will patience be rewarded today for the bears (at least for those who have been able to remain patient)? Minis down a little over 3 (they were down 5). I have the minis cracking the lower TL of a rising wedge that goes back to the 1084 low. The target for the fall is near 1106. The fibs for the fall are 38% -1119, 50% - 1112 and 62% - 1108. Now all that talk about "falling" might be hogwash as we all know markets do not fall anymore. The 30 and 60m indicators on the minis are bottoming, but you know not to pay attention to those. The dailys are overbought and those are the indicators we're watching here. The C leg of the ABC formation for what I am calling 2.1.3 has completed 78.6% of A so there may be a little more room to climb. 1157 is where C=A.

Economic Calendar - Redbook at 8:55 and then some note auctions make for another quiet day. Tomorrow will be busy, but I am not seeing anything IMO that will cause the market to react to tomorrows news.

A year later - hogwash - a year from what? The time they decided to hand our country over to the blackmailers? I'll ask, has anything good happened other than them creating a false sense of recovery? You might be in store for a good rant today after I have been forced to listen to the MSM spew BS all day.

A quick look at the charts says - 60m SPX rolling over and creating (or continuing even longer) divergences. The weekly chart is showing early signs of cracking. MACD hist is almost positive (we need that for a top IMO). T Sto has a hook. RSI5 is hooking under its upper divergence line. The most interesting is SPXA50 is just under 400 and trying to turn. It like to run to 400 or above and then reverse. It has made it there.

SPX Daily Chart - Little red doji yesterday on uber-lite volume. Smacking the upper BB which should (theoretically) cause resistance. RSI5 is in the nosebleed section and possibly rolling over. RSI14 is right at it's upper divergence line. S Sto look to still have some strength. MACD hist has not turned yet. Those that know my calls, I will look for a combo of the hist turn with a S Sto bear cross. ADX is at a point it has reversed in the past. Bottom line is everyone is in place for a turn but S Sto. Keep an eye on it and remain patient. Some sort of correction is overdue, but how much is the question? Are we completing the corrective or is there one more wave up? I'll play it short with caution and go deep short at the top of wave 2 of the first move south.
Dollar - Range bound for the past few weeks. This is looking more like a corrective flag than the fall I want. If this is a 4 then much more strength can be expected. The daily S Sto got a bull cross yesterday and MACD hist is now turning up, so look out for more strength.
Oil - Daily chart looks pretty toppy. Weekly chart says it can still run, but it is setting a big divergence indicating this is possibly the last of the last for high priced oil (that fits nicely with my thoughts of an impending global economic collapse).
Gold - tough read here as it plays in what might be a corrective above support hanging in a range. Weeklys look weak and the dailys are overbought. I'll go for continued consolidation and then is the dollar rises and the market tanks then gold should fall as well. HERE is a vid from Market Club that I think is pretty good.Wath the use of their trade triangles - it is pretty good.
Natgas - 4.24 is the 50% retracement of the move off of 2.41. There is also support at that level. Daily indicators are embedded on the bottom and the weeklys are still trending down. Pop them more weakness is what I am looking for. that pop will be worth jumping on if you can time it right. Should be close. Natgas report is 10:30 Thursday am. I would not touch it till then.
EUR/USD - Weekly oversold and has completed a 61.8% retracement off of the March lows. It should rally from here. Not much, but it should according to TA. Thus the base. How this fits with the dollar and Greece and where they have to deflate currencies to does not fit. So, I am a little miffed at this pair's direction.

GL out there. I expect to be short before the day is over.