Thursday, March 18, 2010

Morning Post

Might be an interesting day. Opex tomorrow, the litany of reports this morning and the slight crack late yesterday in price once again add to all the drama. Sadly the drama always adds up to nothing more than another QE/BOT induced ramp job.CPI and the jobs hit their numbers, so not big surprises there. Market reaction was nothing short of lethargic (like the hangover most traders have this am after all that greeb beer).

Minis are flat after being down as much as 4 overnight. I'm struggling with what chart to bring you this am. Let's look at it this way - 15m - might be headed up, 30m - down, 60m - topping to down, daily - overbought, weekly still climbing but possibly nearing a top. My hunch is that we're getting ready to see more weakness if the 60m candles are right (you know I hate the 60m chart for LT trends, so let's call this a hopeful NT small reversal possibility). The bullish reversal candle late yesterday may help. Price cracked a ST trendline but the 60m chart is being held up by the 10ma right now. If that can crack the bears may get the high ground.

Comparing the major indexes, they all have set higher highs and are exhibiting what I would call a suckers rally to a double top (although we know that is not true cause all buying is being done with your tax dollars hard at work in the greatest pump and dump in history and the bonuses being paid out are at historic levels all while the retail investor stays out of the market).
Looking at the VIX, the inverse wedge to the one I have been showing you every day on SPX is playing out. Now, I am on recod stating that I believe the VIX is at this time has ZERO relevance to anything because the BOTS that trade everything have no emotions, thus no fear. The lack of any significant retail element (uh, that would be humans) renders this index useless IMO.

Something I may begin to use more often will be the VXX. As you can tell in this chart it is very smooth cause of it's futures based components.

Natgas report this am. I will be watching it closely. I have been barking about the $4.24 price level for several weeks now and with price having hit a $4.241 low overnight lets watch that closely. It is horribly oversold NT (not LT) and I have been expecting a pop in UNG to the $9.50 level. Today should be the day the pop comes I believe.

I'm cautiously playing the market right now. Upside risk is still in play as we patiently wait for the top to come. Shorties, USE STOPS! Don't be a meat head for the 25th time in this bull run (not bull market). If the markets run, don't hold. Just get out, let your powder dry and live to fight another day. Be nimble. the turn will come eventually, just make sure you survive to be there when it happens.

Tournament entries need to be in by 12:20 the first tip off of the Florida v. BYU game. We have 28 entries so far. If you want to enter go to this link, join the group shanky's blog and use the PW shanky. Good luck. It will be fun.

Watch UNG this morning.