The big question to me is can the market top without the Dow setting a higher high? The weekly MACD on the SPX has not gone positive yet and the Sto's are not quite ready to turn. The dailys have topped and are looking to set the telling divergence. This market is in a place where it can turn at any moment. To say that upside should be limited is suicide because of the factors involved driving the move (LOL - that was a really polite way of saying is is a manipulated POS).
SPX 60m - I show this chart for two reasons 1) the divergences are very evident that say a turn should be immanent and 2) It shows the two options we have now clearly. The ABC that has almost completed (1156 is the measurement I have cor C=A). Then I threw out another wedge possibility in blue that drags this bad boy out another week or so. I like both. What I do like about the wedge possibility is that it allows the PPT to continue playing its games, it will allow the weeklys time to get set for the turn (and to set the final divergence for the top top), and time for the dailys to set a divergence as well.
Either way, it is overbought and will turn soon. How will I play it? I wont go balls deep out of the gate. I will nibble till I know the trend has changed. I will swing very few trades till the trend has changed. I will remain patient and cautious. The bears will be rewarded, it will just take some more time for their train to come in.
Oil - Weeklys are mixed and could be rolling over before they top. The dailys are topping with a nice divergence on the RSI14 and MACD. At the 50% line of the channel up. With the most manipulated commodity on the planet you never know. I still think it eventually returns to the $50 range. Should be some good support at $43.
Natgas - Who the hell knows? 4.24 is the 50% retracement. Oversold and should bounce soon. Looking for a $9.50 target.
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