Tuesday, March 16, 2010

If I Had Any Balls

I'd call a top right here. This set up is where I imagined my recent top call to come. It just came a little quicker in the week than I expected. A short double top ending a larger double top (both with blow off top/sucker rally written all over them) ending in a rising wedge in severe overbought conditions with overly bullish sentiment. Not to mention several other factors. Throw on oil and gold and what more can you ask for? Oh, yes, a Bradley turn date (thanks Andre and Rich). It is all piling on here. The weight is tremendous. I wanted one more higher high and I got it. Is the final 5 in for P2?

Alas, my fear of the PPT and the Fed over rule any thought of calling a top. If I had a big set this is right where I would do it (no fear ladies, my set is just fine - that was figuratively speaking).  The weeklys are not quite there. I want that weekly hist to go positive on the MACD. As I have speculated all along, it will take something "external" to rip the market from "their" control. Is something big just around the corner?

I honestly believe we're close, but I will caution to not discount the fraudsters running the show with NO regulation to halt them from any sort of trickery to pad their bonuses (especially with quarter end coming in a week - they may want that last nice print for those statements). Maybe I have finally reached my personal capitulation point and need to back off. My gut is not screaming either.

Maybe I just need to calm down and let the weeklys come home.Let's forget this post ever happened and call it a trial run to see if i can pull the trigger.Let's also wait to see if the Dow can set a higher high.