You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.
LOL - almost forgot to do this post. that would have been bad.
Interesting week. Bear party all week - well, till Friday at least. What a treat! just enough to pile us all in and get the slaughterhouse ready I suspect, but you never know. Everything is news driven, so no news bites and things will 'normalize' somewhat I'd assume. Still, we're not far from support and heartbreak city. We're also not far from some real fear that seems to be coming in droves these days (rightfully or not).
If you see it share it. I'll so the same. I'll dip into the chartbook. I should find the time with the PGA on.
Thanks to all for another exceptional week on the blog - great job by all.
Have a great weekend.
GLa nd GB.
Friday, August 8, 2014
Morning Charts 08/08/14 SPX /es
Well, back during the run up to the 4th I was warning of what was coming. I wanted to call the top, was gonna call it, got hung up with an infected nose, kidney stones and a lengthily trip to CO with 4 kids and never pulled the trigger. Bottom line is my spidey sense is still in tact. Their game can be as easy to call as I remember. Perfect technical tops still exist.
Geopolitical and domestic troubles have been weighing on the markets, a potus bent on destruction of the country with a congress on vacation and coming election jitters - with the WRC being challenged like it never has before - all in a horrifically overbought market and the Fed struggling - is it a wonder we'retesting cracking critical support here?
Now what is the big question? Critical diagonal support just cracked. The minis printed an 18 handle yesterday. The weekly 20, Daily 100 and 4hr 200 ma's are all getting tagged here. Yesterday I mentioned a gap down open to take this support structure out that can't be taken out during open hours. Well, we may get that. What's about to go down? Or up?
Does the Fed have the juice left to lift? Banks, algos, HFT, PPT, so many tools - where are they all? Where did they go? Is it time for some really dovish Fed speak? I get a pullback to suck in some shorts for slaughter, but is this another scenario? I do know that these MA levels for the past two years have marked close to every bottom. Will they again?
Or, are they ready to let it go? Or, have they actually lost control? Or, is this just another correction (a rare event) that we're all freaking out about? WTF is going on?
I wanted 1904, stuck with it and got it. Now they are exceeding my expectations which is taking me back a little bit. I'm not surprised given the circumstances. This fall is way overdue and more than deserving. The problem is, where is the Fed? That's what has me more worried than anything. They CAN NOT let the markets fail (especially going into an election), and sub 1886 minis and sub all these critical MA's there will be some sell stops hit (think margin calls soon).
Let's see what Friday brings. The news is not good and apparently getting worse by the day. It does not look good, not good at all.
On to the lie -
Daily SPX - I darkened the 100ma on the chart. TRIX is the only indicator not ready or severely oversold. Does the 200ma at 1861 come into play here? It has to be the next significant meaningful target - and the last straw.
More to come below.
Have a good weekend.
GL and GB!
Geopolitical and domestic troubles have been weighing on the markets, a potus bent on destruction of the country with a congress on vacation and coming election jitters - with the WRC being challenged like it never has before - all in a horrifically overbought market and the Fed struggling - is it a wonder we're
Now what is the big question? Critical diagonal support just cracked. The minis printed an 18 handle yesterday. The weekly 20, Daily 100 and 4hr 200 ma's are all getting tagged here. Yesterday I mentioned a gap down open to take this support structure out that can't be taken out during open hours. Well, we may get that. What's about to go down? Or up?
Does the Fed have the juice left to lift? Banks, algos, HFT, PPT, so many tools - where are they all? Where did they go? Is it time for some really dovish Fed speak? I get a pullback to suck in some shorts for slaughter, but is this another scenario? I do know that these MA levels for the past two years have marked close to every bottom. Will they again?
Or, are they ready to let it go? Or, have they actually lost control? Or, is this just another correction (a rare event) that we're all freaking out about? WTF is going on?
I wanted 1904, stuck with it and got it. Now they are exceeding my expectations which is taking me back a little bit. I'm not surprised given the circumstances. This fall is way overdue and more than deserving. The problem is, where is the Fed? That's what has me more worried than anything. They CAN NOT let the markets fail (especially going into an election), and sub 1886 minis and sub all these critical MA's there will be some sell stops hit (think margin calls soon).
Let's see what Friday brings. The news is not good and apparently getting worse by the day. It does not look good, not good at all.
On to the lie -
Daily SPX - I darkened the 100ma on the chart. TRIX is the only indicator not ready or severely oversold. Does the 200ma at 1861 come into play here? It has to be the next significant meaningful target - and the last straw.
More to come below.
Have a good weekend.
GL and GB!
Thursday, August 7, 2014
Morning Charts 08/07/14 SPX /es
If you don't visit STB late night, you should. All sorts of great info flows in the evenings when the topics can run a bit wild.
I really don't have much to say or elaborate on that I have not been covering since before the 4th. Things are continuing to escalate globally, and domestically things are not getting much better either.
RC went hog wild after seeing this last night in the comments section - US Dependent on Russia for NASA Launches; Well, Guess What? Russia Fires Back With More Sanctions: NASA, Pepsi, McDonald's, Autos in Spotlight.
Apparently Obummer has really screwed the pooch this time. Talk about a no win situation.Now the idiot has pissed off the Russians and his corporate mafia. I'm not sure there is anyone left he can anlienate at this point.
Is it any wonder the 'markets' are starting to act a bit nervous? I mean they are at critical support, the point where levered bounces materialize out of thin air and reassure everyone that the recovery is for real. Sorry, to assume that the markets are 'reacting' to something negative would infer that there is some sort of reality involved.
Is the MATRIX finally showing signs of a glitch?
On to the lie -
Yesterday I was thinking about an ABC correction on the minis. I'm looking at my bull/bear lines (62% retracements) to judge who has the ball. Right now, you could say I'm laying in the weeds watching closely to see if anything develops here or in the near future.
SPX 30m - Fairly good look at the near term action. Three gaps above? What are we on another planet?
More to come below.
Have a good day.
GL and GB!
I really don't have much to say or elaborate on that I have not been covering since before the 4th. Things are continuing to escalate globally, and domestically things are not getting much better either.
RC went hog wild after seeing this last night in the comments section - US Dependent on Russia for NASA Launches; Well, Guess What? Russia Fires Back With More Sanctions: NASA, Pepsi, McDonald's, Autos in Spotlight.
Apparently Obummer has really screwed the pooch this time. Talk about a no win situation.Now the idiot has pissed off the Russians and his corporate mafia. I'm not sure there is anyone left he can anlienate at this point.
Is it any wonder the 'markets' are starting to act a bit nervous? I mean they are at critical support, the point where levered bounces materialize out of thin air and reassure everyone that the recovery is for real. Sorry, to assume that the markets are 'reacting' to something negative would infer that there is some sort of reality involved.
Is the MATRIX finally showing signs of a glitch?
On to the lie -
Yesterday I was thinking about an ABC correction on the minis. I'm looking at my bull/bear lines (62% retracements) to judge who has the ball. Right now, you could say I'm laying in the weeds watching closely to see if anything develops here or in the near future.
SPX 30m - Fairly good look at the near term action. Three gaps above? What are we on another planet?
More to come below.
Have a good day.
GL and GB!
Wednesday, August 6, 2014
Morning Charts 08/06/14 SPX /es
What day is it? Hump Day!
Confusion reigns in a nervous market. Not good when sitting on critical support, and the Fed is exposed and in a weak position. One would assume they are not ready for the party train to end, so some desperation may be in order sooner than later. You should expect some doveish Fed speak really soon.
STB and company have been discussing the plethora of fuckedupness that exists across the globe right now. They got thru the holiday ramp on the 4th, threw the bears under the bus in one last short squeeze and then lost it. Can they get their mojo back is the burning question all want to know?
Well, they have little time, but a technical near term oversold condition at critical support may be ready to work in their favor. Hmmm, or is it? Is the weight of the economic and political spectrum (not to mention years of lies, false data points, trillions in liquidity, blah, blah, blah) combined with the mounting fear in an incredibly overbought market finally ready to crush the market?
Does the 'smart money' finally see the inevitable end of the dollar dominance and (again) the Fed lies (like the recent 4% GDP call which STB LOLed on the spot) as their clue to follow Joe Six-pack out of the market? Is an incredibly lame (like the lamest EVER) lame duck potus in combination with the coming elections spooking even the most entrenched elite? So many questions and possibilities - and none of them are good.
Volatility marks tops. I'm regretting not calling it after the 4th here, but even after the LEH incident the market incurred one last bull trap. Bulltards are bulltards, and they will always be. Ignorant, greedy pricks that deem themselves 10 feet tall and bulletproof. Let 'em soak it up and keep on buying. Be my guest.
I've said it before and will say it again. You saw it the other day, aaaand it's gone, POOF, sorry your money did not do so well, next customer please. In an instant this market lost months worth of work.Take your profits and run - all the way out of the market, brokerage account, bank and dollar. You will be labeled a terrorist for the larger withdrawal of course, but you'll be in good company with the over 1,700 fired servicemen and women that are getting pink slips and will be immediately added to the terrorist list as well.
So, are you figuring out why they closed the "gates" on the money market funds the other week? Was this a just in time move? Are you ready to take 95 cents on the dollar of what limited amount you are going to be allowed to withdraw? That's a damn good question isn't it? Can you say capital controls? Can you say AmeriKa?
There are some MASSIVE supportless holes below. Huge chunks will be lost in very little time when this hot air infused house of cards begins to crumble. I'm on the record from the original set of calls in '09 for at least two markt closures in the coming crash (along with my event, war, global default, dollar collapse and deflation to the point that minimum wage will be lowered). Yes, I've been a complete and utter bear that long.
There will be no place to hide. Oh, and don't forget the value of the dollar will more than likely be crashing with the market. Bonds will be safe right? LOL, think again. No place to hide. And who will pay the shorts in the end? That's a question I've been asking for years.
Ammo, guns, water filter, generator, food, physical gold and silver, anything out of the dollar especially barterable items. Think SHTF. Oh, and pay cash fro everything you can. Don't leave the Feds a paper trail right to your terrorist door.
On to the lie -
SPX 60m - As I mentioned on the fall yesterday - it gave then the positive divergence setup they may have needed on the DCB double bottom. Also price finally got to my (minis) low target.
SPX Daily - Oversold fo shizzle but no pos divs here. You will notice that they don't necessarily need pos divs either. Price is cracking the diagonal of death again. This line in the sand has had great success in marking bottoms for the past year. I'll add something else I've been discussing which is that on each overthrow instance price has back checked the overthrow level before breaking out again. The minis took care of this yesterday, and cash needs something closer to 1900 for this to happen.
SPX Weekly - Overthrowing the overthrow (2x) - how bad is it? See that pink diagonal down there near 1625? That's a busted rising wedge resistance backtest. The 38% retracement at 1650 would be considered a normal correction in historical terms. Again, LOL. Just a target area for you to consider once things really get going. Oh, and don't forget the 1475 open gap and area.
SPX Weekly - And, again, we're in my crash window.
More to come below.
Have a good day.
GL and GB!
Confusion reigns in a nervous market. Not good when sitting on critical support, and the Fed is exposed and in a weak position. One would assume they are not ready for the party train to end, so some desperation may be in order sooner than later. You should expect some doveish Fed speak really soon.
STB and company have been discussing the plethora of fuckedupness that exists across the globe right now. They got thru the holiday ramp on the 4th, threw the bears under the bus in one last short squeeze and then lost it. Can they get their mojo back is the burning question all want to know?
Well, they have little time, but a technical near term oversold condition at critical support may be ready to work in their favor. Hmmm, or is it? Is the weight of the economic and political spectrum (not to mention years of lies, false data points, trillions in liquidity, blah, blah, blah) combined with the mounting fear in an incredibly overbought market finally ready to crush the market?
Does the 'smart money' finally see the inevitable end of the dollar dominance and (again) the Fed lies (like the recent 4% GDP call which STB LOLed on the spot) as their clue to follow Joe Six-pack out of the market? Is an incredibly lame (like the lamest EVER) lame duck potus in combination with the coming elections spooking even the most entrenched elite? So many questions and possibilities - and none of them are good.
Volatility marks tops. I'm regretting not calling it after the 4th here, but even after the LEH incident the market incurred one last bull trap. Bulltards are bulltards, and they will always be. Ignorant, greedy pricks that deem themselves 10 feet tall and bulletproof. Let 'em soak it up and keep on buying. Be my guest.
I've said it before and will say it again. You saw it the other day, aaaand it's gone, POOF, sorry your money did not do so well, next customer please. In an instant this market lost months worth of work.Take your profits and run - all the way out of the market, brokerage account, bank and dollar. You will be labeled a terrorist for the larger withdrawal of course, but you'll be in good company with the over 1,700 fired servicemen and women that are getting pink slips and will be immediately added to the terrorist list as well.
So, are you figuring out why they closed the "gates" on the money market funds the other week? Was this a just in time move? Are you ready to take 95 cents on the dollar of what limited amount you are going to be allowed to withdraw? That's a damn good question isn't it? Can you say capital controls? Can you say AmeriKa?
There are some MASSIVE supportless holes below. Huge chunks will be lost in very little time when this hot air infused house of cards begins to crumble. I'm on the record from the original set of calls in '09 for at least two markt closures in the coming crash (along with my event, war, global default, dollar collapse and deflation to the point that minimum wage will be lowered). Yes, I've been a complete and utter bear that long.
There will be no place to hide. Oh, and don't forget the value of the dollar will more than likely be crashing with the market. Bonds will be safe right? LOL, think again. No place to hide. And who will pay the shorts in the end? That's a question I've been asking for years.
Ammo, guns, water filter, generator, food, physical gold and silver, anything out of the dollar especially barterable items. Think SHTF. Oh, and pay cash fro everything you can. Don't leave the Feds a paper trail right to your terrorist door.
On to the lie -
SPX 60m - As I mentioned on the fall yesterday - it gave then the positive divergence setup they may have needed on the DCB double bottom. Also price finally got to my (minis) low target.
SPX Weekly - Overthrowing the overthrow (2x) - how bad is it? See that pink diagonal down there near 1625? That's a busted rising wedge resistance backtest. The 38% retracement at 1650 would be considered a normal correction in historical terms. Again, LOL. Just a target area for you to consider once things really get going. Oh, and don't forget the 1475 open gap and area.
SPX Weekly - And, again, we're in my crash window.
More to come below.
Have a good day.
GL and GB!
Tuesday, August 5, 2014
Morning Charts 08/05/14 SPX /es
The power of community. I think STB personifies how things should function. A true democracy in motion. Impeccable leadership - LOL - just kidding there - more like impeccable individuals coming together to discuss far ranging, diverse, difficult and sometimes horrifying topics. Agreeing and disagreeing in harmony and respect. Amazing at times.
Y'all make my job easy. In the early days things were a bit more difficult. Charting really mattered. Discovering, exploring and predicting the path to come was a daily event. Then came the 'follow the Fed' years, and now here we are living out the death of the dollar and the coming end game.
We're a very unique bunch. Stalwarts that don't take shit off anyone, yet at the same time open minded enough to listen, observe, willing to learn and smart enough to realize when to change course. That makes this group even more amazing.
Whether investing or the topic is conspiracy laden, we live on the edge. We're a unique group willing to take and discuss fantastically negative, improper and non-pc issues as if they were normal fare. That's not normal. You do realize we're a bunch of nuts, right?
Funny when the 'nuts' are consistently right on their memes and mostly right on their market calls. Maybe there is a method to the madness? Maybe there is something to seeing and speaking the truth? Maybe there is something to living, accepting and dealing with reality rather than ignoring it.
I need to thank you all for your participation and daily sharing of the love and knowledge. STB was founded for the 'do it yourselfer'. I hate advisors. 90% are a total rip off. What STB has evolved into has far exceeded anything I ever imagined. Now if we could just keep internet freedom for a few more years ......
On to the lie -
I think potus is about to do something really stupid to disrupt everything (like worse than he's already done). We almost had a CDS trigger yesterday. We're getting close to an 'event' that can't be buried or reversed.
SPX Daily - Everything near term is oversold and bouncing off critical support. There are lines that are not supposed to be crossed - that support diagonal is one of them. That is the equivalent of the old STB red diagonal of death on the minis charts. I used it to call more bottoms than a DJ at a strip club the past few years.
SPX Weekly - This chart like the daily is still under red reversal candle alert. One day it will get confirmation. It will happen. Diagonal support is there with the 20 ma's. Again, some lines are not meant to be crossed, and the Fed knows this. I've mentioned that each overthrow has pulled back to back check the initial overthrow point. the move to 1916 came close. Cash and the minis stopped just short of what I'd like to have seen (closer to 1900). They are trying a reversal, but let's be patient and see what they can muster. Gap support near 1961 and the s/r there marks my bull/bear line. Below that and the bears still have the ball.
More to come below.
Have a good day.
GL and GB!
Y'all make my job easy. In the early days things were a bit more difficult. Charting really mattered. Discovering, exploring and predicting the path to come was a daily event. Then came the 'follow the Fed' years, and now here we are living out the death of the dollar and the coming end game.
We're a very unique bunch. Stalwarts that don't take shit off anyone, yet at the same time open minded enough to listen, observe, willing to learn and smart enough to realize when to change course. That makes this group even more amazing.
Whether investing or the topic is conspiracy laden, we live on the edge. We're a unique group willing to take and discuss fantastically negative, improper and non-pc issues as if they were normal fare. That's not normal. You do realize we're a bunch of nuts, right?
Funny when the 'nuts' are consistently right on their memes and mostly right on their market calls. Maybe there is a method to the madness? Maybe there is something to seeing and speaking the truth? Maybe there is something to living, accepting and dealing with reality rather than ignoring it.
I need to thank you all for your participation and daily sharing of the love and knowledge. STB was founded for the 'do it yourselfer'. I hate advisors. 90% are a total rip off. What STB has evolved into has far exceeded anything I ever imagined. Now if we could just keep internet freedom for a few more years ......
On to the lie -
I think potus is about to do something really stupid to disrupt everything (like worse than he's already done). We almost had a CDS trigger yesterday. We're getting close to an 'event' that can't be buried or reversed.
SPX Daily - Everything near term is oversold and bouncing off critical support. There are lines that are not supposed to be crossed - that support diagonal is one of them. That is the equivalent of the old STB red diagonal of death on the minis charts. I used it to call more bottoms than a DJ at a strip club the past few years.
SPX Weekly - This chart like the daily is still under red reversal candle alert. One day it will get confirmation. It will happen. Diagonal support is there with the 20 ma's. Again, some lines are not meant to be crossed, and the Fed knows this. I've mentioned that each overthrow has pulled back to back check the initial overthrow point. the move to 1916 came close. Cash and the minis stopped just short of what I'd like to have seen (closer to 1900). They are trying a reversal, but let's be patient and see what they can muster. Gap support near 1961 and the s/r there marks my bull/bear line. Below that and the bears still have the ball.
More to come below.
Have a good day.
GL and GB!
Monday, August 4, 2014
Morning Charts 08/04/2014 SPX /es
Not much to say this AM. Hard to pick a spot to cover in depth with so many balls in the air. I'll let things roll and see what comes up hottest this week. Ebola, Ukraine, Israel, ISIS, O and amnesty, coming elections with congress on vacation, market drooping (with all the trimmings), and the list goes on and on. So ripe for an 'event' of magnitude.
On to the lie -
SPX 60m - Oversold but no real positive divergences.
SPX Weekly - Just watch the 20ma for support - pretty simple.Reversal candles are what could be considered modern 'corrections'. There is a real chance here that this trend could change. Note the LT red support diag on the weekly chart that stopped the fall at the 20ma. Also note the MASSIVE supportless hole below that red diagonal.
More to come below.
Have a good week.
GL and GB!
On to the lie -
SPX 60m - Oversold but no real positive divergences.
SPX Weekly - Just watch the 20ma for support - pretty simple.Reversal candles are what could be considered modern 'corrections'. There is a real chance here that this trend could change. Note the LT red support diag on the weekly chart that stopped the fall at the 20ma. Also note the MASSIVE supportless hole below that red diagonal.
More to come below.
Have a good week.
GL and GB!
Friday, August 1, 2014
Open Weekend Post 08/02-03/2014
You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.
If you see it, share it.
I may have time to update some charts or not - not sure.
Thanks for another great week on the blog. Fun when things get interesting.
Have a good weekend.
GL and GB!
If you see it, share it.
I may have time to update some charts or not - not sure.
Thanks for another great week on the blog. Fun when things get interesting.
Have a good weekend.
GL and GB!
Morning Charts 08/01/01 SPX /es
OK, so Wednesday I gave you "whatever" cause they were defying every law in the book. Yesterday I gave you, "Theoretically this is like the ultimate
spot of spots to want to take a shot at a short. It should not get any
better than this - period." Today is, "Will she or won't she?"
Can the bears get a follow through day? Can they confirm the move yesterday? Honestly I have no clue. The minis are a bit more clear with support and resistance IMO. Today they fell thru 1953 and went straight to 40ish as I wanted and then on to 20ish (the ishes are cause the levels are not clear so I give them an ish - this is new to STB nomenclature). I'd really like to see 1904ish before some sort of reversal. Sub 1900 and sell stops will start showing up.
The reversal candles for the day, week and month are pretty sporty thanks to ONE day that wiped out weeks of a grinding climb. I told you, one move, one moment, can take it all back. The markets are primed for such.
What caused the turn? Who knows? I'm just glad that a perfect technical setup worked. Sanctions, Congress recess, coming elections, amnesty, FOMC, Ukraine, Israel, overbought, rates, GDP lie, Cons Conf lie, Obummer lie - so many things in play. I also said yesterday that things are a changin - the market may sense this.
On to the lie -
SPX Weekly - now this candle is not quite set, but if it is to hold the doji last week could prove an epic moment in history. After all, price has entered my end zone.
More to come below.
Have a good weekend.
GL and GB.
Can the bears get a follow through day? Can they confirm the move yesterday? Honestly I have no clue. The minis are a bit more clear with support and resistance IMO. Today they fell thru 1953 and went straight to 40ish as I wanted and then on to 20ish (the ishes are cause the levels are not clear so I give them an ish - this is new to STB nomenclature). I'd really like to see 1904ish before some sort of reversal. Sub 1900 and sell stops will start showing up.
The reversal candles for the day, week and month are pretty sporty thanks to ONE day that wiped out weeks of a grinding climb. I told you, one move, one moment, can take it all back. The markets are primed for such.
What caused the turn? Who knows? I'm just glad that a perfect technical setup worked. Sanctions, Congress recess, coming elections, amnesty, FOMC, Ukraine, Israel, overbought, rates, GDP lie, Cons Conf lie, Obummer lie - so many things in play. I also said yesterday that things are a changin - the market may sense this.
On to the lie -
SPX Weekly - now this candle is not quite set, but if it is to hold the doji last week could prove an epic moment in history. After all, price has entered my end zone.
More to come below.
Have a good weekend.
GL and GB.
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