SPX Charts

See update below -

SPX 60m - Look what has shown up at the bottom of this chart - the lower P2 support line (blue dashed) near 1155. So now we can clearly see the rising wedge ending/consolidation area on one chart. Eerily similar bottoming pattern here to set divergence. Gaps are brown rectangles. Questions I have received on gap coverage are bountiful. My answer is that the market will leave gaps. They are like magnates and should eventually get covered, but this is not a law of any sort. With a P3 and the impending volatility, it should theoretically leave some massive holes along the way. There is a good chance these gaps will not get filled. If they do the bears better look out. It will take a very powerful move to crack that lower dashed support line, so what I do like is that if we are in a 3 and a 3rd of a 3rd is coming that will be what is required to get thru that line.

SPX 30m - 1175 is proving to be resistance now. If I had to target the top for this corrective it would be in the 80 to 85 range. Anything above 87 invalidates most EWT counts out there. If that resistance line on RSI can hold and the series of lower highs (red arrows) can continue, the bears are still in the game and trend change is in near term. Looks like there should be one more pop to get the sell signal. Look at the last two lows, they slowly consolidate then pop up quickly. I'd look for the same here to the 80 - 85 area. If it gets over 87 all short bets should be very concerned. The daily lower BB and 50ma have price stalled right now.

SPX 1m - Of course this H&S could be about to bust loose down to 61 as well.

UPDATE - Fun to be able to post things like this back to back. 

 GL!

VIX, VXZ and VXX

I would not touch these with a 10 foot pole right now. Don't chase 'em. I'd wait for a corrective to occur at this point. Gives you a good picture of the performance difference between the two ETFs and the actual VIX. I prefer the VXZ as a scalp trade and the VXX as a more stable LT less volatile alternative. I also believe the VXX and VXZ are becoming more viable market indicators than the VIX.

$DJUSFN

Looking at where the financials are possibly headed. the Blue lines are the bull corrective's rising wedge. I am of the opinion that the wedge has completed the A-E phase and should be taking out that lower blue support line sooner than later. this move should not end till that blue line is touched at a minimum. It should take a large thrust to pop that blue line. The green support line and the lower BB are what I am looking at as an initial target.

Here, drilled down with a fib added you can see we're just above the BB 20ma with the lower BB at 259. I'm thinking this move possibly stops somewhere around the 61% retracement near 266. That may not be enough if this puppy starts to really let go, but the PPT will support this group more than any. The major support levels (not drawn for some odd reason) are 272 and 244 then 224 and finally 194.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Happy Cinco De Mayo  - Maybe we get a 500 point fall today in honor of this fine day.

I'd say the people in Greece are a little pissed off. At this pace in a year or so I'm guessing the rest of the buildings will look a lot like the Parthenon. Contagion, you bulls need to learn that word. This financial Ebola virus is spreading. When you have a debt bubble that has not popped (they have only taken the excess and stuck it in a closet) and the whole world has been funding the good times and all the excess on credit, at some time the math no longer works. the only reason we do not have riots like that here in America is because the entitlement packages are still in tact (and growing in some cases). There will soon come a time when the less fortunate on food stamps will no longer be able to pay the rent-a-center the 35% interest rates on their new LG 52 inch plasmas for each bedroom housing their 15 children, and they will be pissed just like the people in Greece. It won't be you and me in the streets till they get there. Then the biggie will come when we have a clash between the haves and have nots. I understand welfare and get it when people are less fortunate, but our welfare system is a great example of the excesses of the credit bubble and the "entitlement period" will end. The government knows it but will not admit it. We are about to face some really tough times. We can not continue to print money forever and hide hundreds of billions (if not trillions) in bad assets forever.

Earnings Calendar - No link cause they really do not matter.


Economic Calendar - Lots of stuff this am before 10. ADP was not good if you have not figured that out.

Pivot Points -I don't think they will matter much.

Mini rant here - Some meathead on CNBS is calling for a 10% correction as the end of the first phase of the "bull market" comes to an end. Get used to hearing this bullshit. It will be the money managers next straw to grab for. These fucking assholes really piss me off. What the fuck? The banks have been nationalized (not to mention FNM and FRE and GM and all the other GSEs) and for all intensive purposes are insolvent. The national debt is way out of hand. What the hell, does this shit not exist anymore? How can any economist stare this situation (called reality) in the face and see it with any sense of hope. this shit we shoved in the closet is real. It is the boogey man and one night that sum bitch is gonna come out of the closet and really go bump in the night. Fucking bull market - more like bullshit market. WAKE UP PEOPLE! Sorry bout that. I feel better now.

Minis are getting crushed. Down 9. Looks like (if the count is right) we're gonna open in the 3rd of the 3rd. The VWAP is at a paltry 1169, so hopes of pushing this thing back up atre all but gone at this point. Looks like the P3 is here and Shanky's top call is all good. Time not to worry about retracing that anymore. I think I was the first and some are even still holding out for another high. Good luck. Time to bite the bullet. Global financial meltdown is coming.

SPX Daily - Look at the pink boxes. Price bounced off the 50ma and closed at the lower BB. this chart does not look good at all. If this is the 3rd of a 3rd it will hurt. I'm not sure about the count (cause EWT is a bunch of shit as well - no one is ever sure about the count), but if this is one of those rare cases when we are not left guessing it will be painful. My initial target of 1152 looks like it may not be enough. The 30, 60 and daily charts now have continuing lower highs on the indicators meaning the trend down may finally be in place and hopefully they will embed for a while.

Can't give anymore detailed info at this point cause it would be a waste of time. I'll give updated charts when the market stops falling. 1152 was my number, but then again that may not be enough. GL!

SPX Charts

UPDATE: No post tonight - Little Shanky has a baseball game.

Here is an updated chart. SPX Daily Indicator Chart shows possibly more room to fall.

CNBS of course has two bulls on talking the market up. Simply amazing that in the face of this crisis and the DOW down 216 thrashing technicals they continue to promote the Ponzi. Remember, these folks pumping the market are the multi-million (or billion) money managers that need for you to stay in so they can get out. they also need to keep you in the market so they can make fees and pay for that third house in the Hamptons and the 12th BMW for their mistress.These suckers actually think that the USA is in a recovery and that global financial problems will work themselves out. No matter about the marked to fantasy, you just gotta say WTF.

SPX 30m - I think the PPT stepped in where they had to. Really below 1170 is a vast hole to 1110. Taking out the 1175 low was a big deal. For those of you that had been asking about the impending impulsive sell off I had been mentioning the possibility of, this is what I was talking about. Actually this should only be the beginning of it. If the count has this as 1 of 3, then just wait for 3 of 3. This was not squat. A corrective then total dump should be in order. My 1152 target will not be near enough for a complete structure if the count is right and this fall has cinder blocks tied to it's ankles.

I will play it as the indicators tell me to with the wave counts as a secondary or confirming my thoughts. No buy signals yet, and not sure one will come today. It really looks like the trend has changed especially if the daily RSI can remain and close below the 50 line.  It is oversold and the key corrective buy point should be delivered with a nice divergence across several indicators below, but they are not in sight quite yet. I would not recommend scalping the buy cause it may be brief and you do not want to get stuck long with a possible 3 down coming. The green box at the 38% retracement near 1184 would be my target for the corrective at this time. If not that, then the backtest of the triangle support near 92 would be good. It looks like a 1 of 3 has possibly completed and the 2 corrective is working now. I'm not buying the H&S pattern some are calling, but I can't actually dismiss it either. Look for a retrace of some sort and then possibly some more severe downside. One small problem is the island top that the SPX left on the 1m time frame near 1197. For some reason I can not commit to total collapse. I believe I have been conditioned to always think Ponzi manipulation first then what I see second. Just have a plan and always use stops. GL!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

I wish CNBS would greet the minis down 8 with the same vigor and exuberance as an up 8 day. Bottom line is the world is coming to realize that the great financial Ponzi is imploding starting with the countries with the least amount of paper and ink that can't print their way out of the hole. I am so tired of hearing about insolvent banks raking in gazillions in profit (UBS being the latest). The noteworthy news is about the worries over sovereign debt (come on folks, like this problem did not just pop up last night, what did the markets finally get the email that there is a slight problem across the Atlantic?)  and this eye opener (as they all are) from Zero Hedge CMBS Delinquencies Hit Fresh Record, Now At $51 Billion, 268% Increase From Prior Year, Don't worry, its not a big deal. I promise.

Economic Calendar - Factory Orders and Pending Home Sales at 10:00. I think Barry speaks around 11.

Earnings Calendar - TWX after the bell may be the most notable.

Pivot Points -

Minis really began falling after the close yesterday and then cranked it down around 7:45 this am. The great question comes from the triangle or is it some sort of falling wedge or neither. Will it throw under and explode up or will it just plummet to the depths only a busted oil rig can exceed? Consolidation is clear as the market is fighting to find the path of least resistance.

SPX 30m - I gave a potential sell on this chart yesterday and I guess it may confirm at the open. The danger to the bears here is the gap down (that these markets love to fill) and the fact that the indicators never topped out sufficiently (IMO). The danger to the bulls is the lower high in price and on the indicators showing a possible extended trend change. The MACD still needs to cross to confirm my sell on this chart. Another must mention is the fact that this market has been turning on a dine lately. Significant buy/sell signals are happening almost daily, so you need to remain nimble. IMHO this is not a place that you can play all the chips on one side or the other and patience must be maintained. In a great post from Yelnick last night that includes some nice notes from mole at evil.speculator  regarding the VIX, he notes the up/down scenarios and confirms I am seeing.

I remain in a bearish wait and see mode. This triangle consolidation needs to play out. It could breakdown today. Most EWT bears are looking for an impulsive third wave down here that will confirm the Shanky top call. Others are seeing the possibility of the triangle breaking higher and the bull market continuing it's run as this formation leads to higher highs. Can you chase it here? I would not at the open and I would wait to see what happens at the bottom triangle support. Two other things. One may want to look for a backtest of the triangle if it breals south for a good short entry, but if this is a 3 down, that backtest may not happen (note - the same thing can happen if it breaks to the upside).

If it gets hot and heavy I'll post some charts with targets. Thanks for the views and support. GL!

Oil Slicks And Bailouts

You know, this market apparently does not give a flying flip about anything but higher prices. It has taken on the persona of a banker or a Wall Street executive, profit at any cost in any manner. You have to ask yourself what the heck is this market thinking? The permabulls will argue cyclical bull market and economic recovery while all the bears can manage is a shake of the head and to show the promise of global default. I believe global default will occur and the cards have been played, thus there is not turning back.

Looking at this post from Mish - Shock and Awe, EU's $146 Billion Bet to Avoid Contagion; Market Says "So What?" you have to shake your head if you are a realist. I completely agree with Mish when he says, "The entire global banking system is insolvent. Talk of well capitalized banks at a national level is a joke. The only pertinent question is "What order do various countries implode?"" Based on the stats in this post from Mish - ECB Comes to Greece’s Aid by Waiving Collateral Rules; ECB Plays With Fire; Europe's Web of Debt.

Given the numbers in that post I would be willing to bet that Spain is next in line and not far behind. What size of a friggin dose of hopium  do global financiers have to deliver this time to get the sheeple to continue to follow the shepherd to the trough of plenty? It is simply unimaginable that Greece can actually repay the additional debt they are about to incur (not to mention the fact they could not afford their debt load in the first place). It is also insane to think that Spain will be able to repay their outstanding debts, not to mention the amounts they will possibly incur in a bailout. This is total insanity (and the market rolls on like there are no issues whatsoever).

As Denninger puts it in Greek Dog Squeeze Now Accepted At ECB, "Congratulations Europe, you have now demonstrated that your central bank is and has been issuing dog turds disguised as Euro bank notes." Or as TD at Zero Hedge puts it in ECB Will Accept Junk-Rated Greekman Brothers Debt As Collateral In Suspenion To Rating Threshold Program "In the meantime, using simple math, we wonder: if Greece, which as so many have pointed out is only 2.7% of European GDP, ended up costing 110 billion euros, does that mean that a full blown bailout of Europe will be over $5 trillion? Surely this is a bargain compared to the $20+ trillion that the rescue of the US ended up costing. Looks like a slam dunk relative default pair trade to us."  I guess in today's relative value arguments, it's just another WTF?

Looking to the other side of the globe ZH reports China Hikes RRR, Faber Sees Chinese Crash In 9-12 Months. "Earlier Marc Faber said in a Bloomberg TV interview that "China’s economy will slow and possibly “crash” within a year as declines in stock and commodity prices signal the nation’s property bubble is set to burst. The market is telling you that something is not quite right. The Chinese economy is going to slow down regardless. It is more likely that we will even have a crash sometime in the next nine to 12 months." If you are like me, you trust nothing coming out of big red. The communist state is IMHO the most full of it of any nation on the planet. Hell, that government over there is capable of even the unimaginable and since they have our treasury and economy by the cajounes, I guess they get to keep on keeping on. The endless stockpiling of raw materials, the empty malls and housing developments, the pegged Yuan, the countless number of unemployed and the rest on meager wages and on and on, it will be a disaster I think. Where China sits in the impending toppling of the global dominoes is anyone's guess, but if Faber is right they are near the front of the line.

A little closer to home, Jesse's Cafe American has this excellent post you should read GDP Deflator at a Five Decades Low While Income Inequality Is at Record Highs "I obviously do not believe that communism is the inevitable outcome, not at all. But some form of statism, of the left or right, becomes more probable. Long periods of instability and distortion often result in violent corrections." This is a different take on some of the larger issues facing the nation. Sadly the result of all this fiscal irresponsibility and greed will be irrefutable in a year or so. "Change will come if the system remains as unsustainable as it is now. And what gives me a somewhat pessimistic view is that people never seem to learn the lessons of history."


Since we all know that none of these great recessions has ended without a war, let's follow up on the tensions between the Israel (US) and Iran. Googling the subject returns endless results and speculation. Speculation is all good, but when "the delegations of the United States, Britain, France, Germany and others walked out of the assembly chamber during the Iranian president's fiery speech." I guess you have to ask, who was left other than a handful of our middle east friends? 


Finally, don't belittle this oil spill issue. Yes, it will become a horrific environmental disaster, but will it possibly become an even larger financial disaster? If the mighty Mississippi river gets shut down, you bet it will. At that point not only will the coastline be effected, but the whole central part of America. At this time, this disaster could be the one that pushes  the USA past the breaking point. That area of the country can not afford to lose anymore jobs or to have the cost of goods increase one cent. If the river should get shut down, imagine the financial impact from one end to the other. The good news is that the same person that did such a great job after the Katrina disaster, Adm. Thad W. Allen, the commandant of the Coast Guard , is heading things up for the government. I feel a lot better now! Maybe when we visit the gulf coast in a few weeks we'll actually be able to go fishing and swimming (doubt it). I'll report more when I get there for sure.

Washington's Blog has some nice posts from angles you will not hear from the MSM on the spill here Gulf Oil Spill is Cheney's Fault as Much as Obama's and here Oil Spill: Here's the Inside Scoop. Planet Yelnick also has a nice group of links related to the oil spill here. 

Have a great evening. I'll be ready to moan about the markets actions in the am. In the meantime, if you're jonesin to see a chart, check out where the 30m chart ended the day here. Thanks for all the views and votes this month. I was awarded free chart time for being a top vote and view receiver. Thanks for your contribution.

GL!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Fresh off taking the little Shanky's to their first WWE match last night I'm fired up. Got to see Cena and The Big Show throw down (literally) of some punks I have never herd of. Well worth the price of admission. What I would like to see is this fake as wrestling rally get an "attitude adjustment" Cena style off of the top ropes. Maybe an old style Goldberg spear to the mid section. Anyway, I know it deserves a smack down and hopefully reality will set in sooner than later. The way I see it is this market should be about to get it's back smashed against the canvas if the Fed does not tag out and get a fresh wrastler into the ring.

Economic Calendar - ISM and construction spending at 10:00.


Earnings Calendar - Energy and Mining mostly important ones.

Pivot Points - Know 'em

Minis up 5.5 to 1188 with the 30m overbought, 60m nearing a possible top and the dailys are decisively negative. Possible sloppy H&S pattern showing up going back a few weeks. It is sloppy, but when combined with the potential EWT counts that are out there it would mesh nicely with a potential 3rd wave breakdown that would thrust the minis down to the 40's. Do the math on a 1.68 3rd wave of 1 and the math works there as well. On the other hand, as this potential H&S pattern has been forming the futures have remained range bound with some great volatility. 1210 to 1180 has been the range with the bull corrective's top resistance line as the upper barrier. Now that the minis have dusted the March and February support lines, there is very little support left. For a permabear like me this is a good set up, but there have been many like this before that have failed miserably. I have to advise caution playing it either way at this time because no clear momo has been established for either side and as long as the carry trade is alive and well, the BD's control trading and the MSM keeps the sheeple in the dark, you can't count out anything. Always use stops and always have a plan for every trade.

SPX 60m - Possible channel down coming. The last wedge breakdown I called (see the E and the last fall in early February) was an easy one we got way ahead of time. This wedge is clear but not as pretty. The volatility is reminiscent of the action at the top of the last wedge (and actually more extreme). You all know I hate the 60m chart to trade by because it's pension to embed. If these indicators (especially RSI continue to follow the divergence lines down then the trend has most likely changed for good I believe as the dailys are driving down and the weeklys will be pulled down with them. Can we finally get a down MONTH?

SPX 30m - Could be bottoming and about to give a buy signal. Tough call this an as the gap up will throw this into a buy, but with the minis kinda toppy that gap up may be it for the upside early today. I'll post this chart when I am comfortable that it has signaled a long play. Remember any play regarding this chart can last a period as short as several hours to several days.

First I'm looking for the minis to retrace to 84 with a potential low near 77. then we'll have to see as the day unfolds. At this time I am expecting an impulsive move south. Something that gets everyone's attention around the globe. If that does not occur sooner than later the bulls are still very much in the game. The bulls will struggle to get the market significantly higher for various reasons. Keep your hats on, it should get interesting  (or at least remain volatile) for some time to come.

GL!