Thursday, January 14, 2016

Morning Charts 01/14/2015 SPX /es

STB in full digestion mode. Trying my best to figure all of this out. Waiting patiently for directional clues from the establishment (cause I'm conditioned to do so - for years they've been in 'won't let market break down' mode). I usually do a good job staying calm when everything else around us is blowing up. I'm a bit uneasy here right now cause the stakes are really high.

I'm able to be relaxed usually because charts have support and resistance, and these points are more often than not termination areas for larger moves. Major long term support diagonals, support points, resistance points - technicals still work. Price is a very structured creature and it will obey or at least acknowledge certain things (for a time). So I simply let price go to where it wants to go and then reassess.

That's all good and wonderful until you hit a crisis. Reassessing at a major support point in a crisis is another beast. From the SPX 2016 top it was fairly obvious given everything that 2064, 1990 and finally 1871 would be the major players. I've discussed the three major consolidation areas for months now. Well, price is sub 1900, broke the long term channel support off the 667 low and closed yesterday on the near term wedge support just above 1871 'Bullard' low.

The battle and failed reversal at the 1900 round number and subsequent breakdown was a big deal and has me now pondering the possibility of the Fed letting the market go. We're in a big time 'what if' scenario, cause if 1871 goes 1575 is the next stopping point. That's a lot for everyone involved to have to deal with or control. Or is the question now - can they control it? 

Well, we have to sit back and let the market come to us. We need to follow, remain calm, let the play develop and then make offensive or defensive moves. This is not a point to be too one sided in your conviction. It used to be, it should be but this time may be different. The days of BTFD may be numbered.

On to the lie -

SPX Weekly - If support goes here, look out. Two prior SPX tops and the 38% retracement of the move from the 667 low lie at 1575 and that will be a magnet.

SPX Monthly - Watching that 10/20ma for a cross. As for that target box I've had there for at least two if not three years - Some "expert" just laid a SPX 550 target. That chart is sick.

SPX Daily - Very near term oversold with all indicators at or beyond reversal levels. Positive divergences are few, but a quick dip to 1871 will create some.

Freedom watch - 

If You Don't Agree With Obama You Are "Peddling Fiction"

More to come below.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

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