Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Morning Charts 01/20/2015 SPX /es

SOTU - YOU LIE! and he's lied hundreds of times since. He lies to your face - a lot. I won't be wasting my time listening to him tonight - or ever for that matter. 

Well, I wondered weeks ago about this long journey to ECB QE due Thursday. We've watched the market swing back and forth on every hint of action or inaction. The positioning politically, financially and the pressures or challenges placed to influence the decision have been obvious for the most part. So, what will they deliver? Will it be big enough to satisfy the globe? Apparently with QE, size does matter. 

We're apparently right back in bad=good mode as markets blossom this morning on the IMF global growth cut this morning

Things are not good, and Thursday we're gonna find out if the lords of QE still rule the roost. If this fails and disappoints the markets, look out below. 

On to the lie - 

SPX 60m - The rising wedge - or is it? Has it failed? Has it just set a lower low so they can go higher one last time? Also, is there a falling triangle in there? 

SPX Daily - Reversal candles, especially in their case, usually indicate reversals. 

SPX Daily- The 13/34 bear cross, falling to the 100ma and lower support on this chart have all been good spots to look for reversals. I wonder what happens when all three happen at the same time? I'll note, not that they are needed, but positive divergences are not set as price needs to get to the lower 70's for that to happen. I'd still prefer to see that area hit first. They don't require anything other than a lie to reverse the market at any moment, and with the ECB QE on deck the odds of a reversal here should be pretty high. 

More to come below. 

\Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

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