Thursday, January 15, 2015

Morning Charts 01/15/2015 SPX /es

What happens when there is this super sized margin call and an equal scramble for cash where liquidity does not exist? We're bout to find out. What a headline to start the day with - "It's Carnage" - Swiss Franc Soars Most Ever After SNB Abandons EURCHF Floor; Macro Hedge Funds Crushed

"What happened next was truly shock and awe as algo after algo saw their EURCHF 1.1999 stops hit, and moments thereafter the EURCHF pair crashed to less then 0.75, margining out virtually every single long EURCHF position"

"Crude and other commodities, except gold, are also tumbling, as are most risk assets over concerns what today's epic margin call will mean when the closing bell arrives."

"All Swiss government bill and bond yields out to 7 years are negative"

STB "event" worthy? Definitely a candidate. Folks, moves like this don't "just happen". This is not your everyday run of the mill financial response to an issue. It is a major reaction to an impending crisis. It is possibly the first country attempting to react to reality before it asserts its self and not after. 
Caesars, BAC, employment - those #Fails are just this morning ... shall I continue? Things are finally beginning to unravel, possibly to a point where no matter how much moar QE is promised no one will want to be in any market. Thus, the potential lack of enthusiasm for the ECB January 22 iteration of QE mania. this is the equivalent of what happens when sugar daddy makes it rain and no one cares? When they finally exit - they will all rush the gates at the same time. I't gonna be chaos. 

On to the lie- 

SPX 60m - Break of support and backtest yesterday - I'd prefer a further fall to the 1970's and then backtest, but for now a bust of rising wedge support and backtest has happened. Now, does the fall commence? Anything sub 1970 and the altimeter may start spinning backwards. The daily chart has still not reached a point where it should naturally want to reverse, it should still want to fall. 

On the bully side, pos divs and a slight underthrow yesterday say this fall NT is overdue. 

Either the Fed moves now to stop a slide in a big way or they let the plunge happen and they throw out a serious safety net around 1900. There is a potential STB point near 1950 on January 21st (convenient?). 

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

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