Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Morning Charts 12/16/2014 SPX /es

Trouble in Russia as a result from the non-currency/oil/cyber wars that are not going on no matter who says what to the contrary is finally hitting home. The Teflon has lost its non-stick surface. Something that's been hitting the wall for well over a year now finally stuck. I think this post from ZH sums it up nicely. The US global destabilization policy is finally starting to pay dividends. 

Please note this - what I believe to be the single most important market related sentence in this post and one that really screws with the CB's, Fed and the potential Xmas ramp job that was expected. 
"It is so bad, US equity futures which had jumped earlier on hopes of more Chinese intervention following the latest disastrous Chinese PMI print"
Futures jumped on hopes of more intervention got trumped. Anyone care to tell me the last time a hope/promise/mention of easing got blasted by a real world event? There is that word again, "event". STB - "A non-market related event that will rip control from "them"". This may not be the event, but I have a feeling that it very well could be a precursor to the big one. 

And this just posted on ZH - "The USDRUB Pair Will Be Discontinued Due To Recent Instability Of The Russian Ruble"

One would assume the Ukraine crisis may escalate and the EU may have to start paying rubles for their gas - if it stays on. How many fronts can we fight a war on may be a good question at this time?

And on the home front - as STB's watched closely for years - no liquidity = no market Xmas party. You shut down their (always) well timed liquidity pump short squeezing announcements and throw a wrench in their engine and all of a sudden things are not so awesome are they. 

And a must read at least for a history lesson - it seems to never repeat and we never learn from it - A Lesson For Today's Currency Crises: Black Wednesday 1992 - When Intervention Failed.

And the STB Xmas moment of the day - 

George Bailey: Just a minute... just a minute. Now, hold on, Mr. Potter. You're right when you say my father was no businessman. I know that. Why he ever started this cheap, penny-ante Building and Loan, I'll never know. But neither you nor anyone else can say anything against his character, because his whole life was... why, in the 25 years since he and his brother, Uncle Billy, started this thing, he never once thought of himself. Isn't that right, Uncle Billy? He didn't save enough money to send Harry away to college, let alone me. But he did help a few people get out of your slums, Mr. Potter, and what's wrong with that? Why... here, you're all businessmen here. Doesn't it make them better citizens? Doesn't it make them better customers? You... you said... what'd you say a minute ago? They had to wait and save their money before they even ought to think of a decent home. Wait? Wait for what? Until their children grow up and leave them? Until they're so old and broken down that they... Do you know how long it takes a working man to save $5,000? Just remember this, Mr. Potter, that this rabble you're talking about... they do most of the working and paying and living and dying in this community. Well, is it too much to have them work and pay and live and die in a couple of decent rooms and a bath? Anyway, my father didn't think so. People were human beings to him. But to you, a warped, frustrated old man, they're cattle. Well in my book, my father died a much richer man than you'll ever be! (emphasis mine)
On to the lie - 

We're printing 19 handles now. Possibly 18 handles sooner than later (in January fo shizzle IMO). They need to get a handle on things. Remember how I have warned to take profits as this "market" does not fall orderly anymore, it just vaporizes. 

SPX 30m - Eerily similar to the last big fall and so far with form that is discernible

SPX 60m - Well they closed the second open gap and nailed my third support diagonal at the 38% retracement. Now what? STB still looking for support to come and the rising wedge for Xmas ramp to form - although with much less gusto than before since their effort at liquidity manipulation (real/promised or not) failed miserably this morning. 66, 52 and 22 are all that's left for support and none of those points look all that strong. 

SPX Daily - can't say the neg divs and narrow BB's did not nail this turn - almost like old times. Sub 50 and 100 dma and the 200 is at 1946. STB diagonal of death (black) is just below and will be trounced at the open. This is NOT a support diagonal that is to be messed with. That black blue double support point (that would have been an STB point if I had not been so lazy charting this past month) may get abused this morning. If not, the PPT may make a stand right here no matter what the global conditions are. If not, Pandora's box is deep and wide open. 

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

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