Open Weekend Post 06/01-02/13

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

Not sure whether to root for them to just get on with it, or for them to drag it out as long as possible. I don't think the consequences will be any different either way.

Remember the larger HnS on the minis we've been discussing?

Remember the HnS in the RS that we've been watching?

If one still had any faith in TA one might think that something big was about to happen this weekend that would cause a rather quick move to the 1600 area. Yes, as discussed, they closed it right on the neckline of both HnS's leaving us all to wonder. How nice of them. HA! and some say they don't know what they are doing.

I may post some moar stuff, I may not. Have at it below.

Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Rant 05/31/13

Nothing to elaborate on this AM. Just waiting on the inevitable. How long that is is anyone's guess. Till the STB "event" comes everything else is little more than a sideshow. Whatever I have or could say this morn is covered 10x more by Jim Rogers here. Of course the inter view is from GoldMoney which means off the bat you are a kook and should discredit anything that comes from such a conspiratorial non MSM/Govt approved source that touts gold over risk-on and the petro-dollar. Remember if JR appears on reputable stations such as CNBS it is for disclaimer/entertainment purposes only. You have to throw a bear out there once in a while for shits and giggles. (/s)

This country has literally been rotting from the inside out for over half a century now. What started as one small infectious overly greedy cell (the Fed in 1913) has spread to infect almost every subcutaneous bit of its being. We've DEvolved as a nation. Instead of holding the value systems that established this once great nation as paramount, we've chosen to take the easy path to riches (cheating every chance we got) ignoring every fundamental principle along the way. Instead of remaining respectable and honorable, we've all become a land of thieves and crooks, nothing more than a bunch of selfabsorbed parasites that have ravaged the host to a point is will become unsustainable soon.

For the best evidence of this look no further than the leaders we have chosen. Look at the systems they have put in place and what they serve. Congratulations America, at the top of the leader list we've outdone ourselves. We've actually done the impossible, we've managed to supplant Jimmy Carter as the worst president ever. From the post Less Than Half Of Americans Now View Obama As “Honest And Trustworthy”… we get, "Only 3 percent of voters trust the federal government to do the right thing almost all the time, while 12 percent say they trust it most of the time; ". And I'm not even going into the Holder issues here. 

WTF? And we're worried about the friggin stock market (which problems are not addressed in this post cause they have been covered on STB for the past four years)? The GTF out of the market and into anything that is not dollar based sooner than later. As I have warned, now is the time to be diversifying away from the dollar into anything that you can. Gold, silver, food, a tractor, prepper items, land, whatever - anything other than dollar based assets. I get it that we want to protect our wealth and well being, but that no longer can be stated in terms of dollars. Dollars suck, assets rule. Real tradeable or barterable assets, assets that bring value to your daily lives, assets that can produce something like a garden for sustenance, those are the things that have real meaning now.

We're about to seriously jam this country's transmission in reverse, and if you don't remove your head from your backside and see this, well then. it is no longer my problem. I've done all I can for years to tell as many as possible what's coming. Now is the time you must be willing to cross that invisible line, stop playing their game of paper wealth and invest in real items. You've been warned. When capitulation hits it will be to late.

WTF is another $2000 or $200k or $200mn good gonna do you from this point? Are you gonna time the top perfectly? Are you gonna be able to even withdraw all those 1's and 0's from your institution and get them into your hands? Really? Do you think they are gonna let their lifeblood liquidity go? Fat chance. One word - Cyprus.

I'm not calling a top here in the market. Honestly at this point that is a fools game and it has become a rather mundane experiment that will yield little if nothing. I am however calling a top in the elites plan to dominate the globe. Their rubber band has been stretched to far and it is time for you to leave the game whole while you still have a chance. Leave the imaginary behind. Take what you can (or what they will let you) and diversify into assets that you can possess. Digital and paper are for losers and dreamers now.

Take a step back, look around you, take a gut check look at reality today and ask if you want to be a part of that, or do you want to separate yourself and family from the situation. OK, look at it this way, you and your family just walked inside a mafia run crack house - do you belong there? Do you want to stay there? Well you are stuck inside that crack house and are being forced to live at their standards under their rule. Get it now? Remove yourself from the situation!

On to the markets -

Not sure why I cover this anymore. Might as well change the portion of this post to "on to the lie" which I think I will next week.

Daily SPX -

You know what - screw the charts today. Let me tell you what's going to happen. Unless something blows up somewhere they will be flat to up on low volume that will be driven by a bunch of fucking machines creating the illusion there is a fucking market. Price will give some illusion there is real trade fluctuating around the VWAP while bids outnumber offers a gazillion to one ripping you off as you play their game and transfer your wealth one tenth of a cent at a time to the CB's. This is complete and utter bullshit. It is a fucking illusion to get you to believe all is fucking well when it isn't. Everything is an illusion. Nothing is real and you absolutely must realize this.

I've had enough of this bullshit. Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 05/30/13 SPX /ES

Minis 60m - Is she ready to tumble or do we have another right shoulder failure launching pad set up? This is the RS of the larger HnS I was discussing yesterday. The symmetry has improved overnight. Neckline is lower thick blue diagonal. The shoulders are evident and resistance for them is the 60m 200ma (white line). Major support and the neckline for the larger HnS is the white support diagonal near 1646. The large HnS targets near 1595 support. The RS HnS that is pictured below targets about the same spot.

The set up is superb for the bears, BUT I have seen equally beautiful scenarios totally wiped out by the CB's and their algos. We're still in the RS to a breakout crush all shorts danger zone. Anything above the 60m 200ma and shorts better start checking their shorts cause it could get messy for them. Anything sub 1639 and the bears may be put on the barbie and get cooked up for dinner. The one positive here is that the head of this RS HnS was a failed RS breakout. That is about the only reason I'm giving this setup so much effort this morning.

What could make this things fall is anyone's guess. More than likely nothing can make the market fall. It will only correct if they want it to.

SPX ToS Cash Daily -

SPX ToS Cash Daily Close Up - The gaps are in brown and the island gap is still open at 1566. Almost unprecedented it is still open and has not been closed. Any serious fall should have this in its sights. Blue chan support near 23 is critical. The open gap, 50ma and red diagonal support in the 1595 area is super critical. This area on cash works nicely with the HnS minis target I sowed above.

So, in a perfect world, not this Fed/CB dominated BS we endure day after day, a fall to the 1595 area would be a great prospect here. Of course that is all a pipe dream and sounds technically stimulating, but the new normal rules. Play accordingly and watch out for the dreaded RS ramp. They are batting close to 1000 on that formation failure recently.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 05/29/13 SPX /ES

Kinda don't know what to say this morning. It really appears the Fed's wheels are coming off the tracks, but every time that happens they seem to do the impossible, right the cart and run to higher highs. The problems are increasing in intensity and severity, but every challenge is met with some sort of MSM spin, larger check and a new algo to drive the market higher leaving the sane staring blankly thinking WTF just happened - again.

You know you are nearing the end when you start seeing stuff like EU Extends Deficit Deadlines For Most European Countries, Admits Structural Adjustment Failure, Kills Austerity. These people don't like delaying payments, well the ones to them at least. You know they will never run out of money to lend and lending makes the world go round. The problem here is that whom they've lent to will never be able to pay everything back as it is, there is no real viable collateral anymore that has not been pledged 10x over, so they are admitting thru the non-lending proxy that the game is over.

Think about it this way, your neighbor for the last millenia is a good guy. You and him have been allies in war and are good trade partners. He makes good money but has run on tough times, so you lend him some dough. His troubles persist so you lend him more. This goes on and on for several years. His home now backs six or seven loans, he rides a moped cause he had to hock his cars and he needs another shot to keep going, but his payment to you is due. Do you just keep lending to him so he can flip that payment and pay you back with your own money or do you stop lending and let him extend his payments? And there you have the EU in a nutshell.

On this side of the pond one of my fav subjects is coming front and center. The most corrupt of corrupt trades that is one of the biggest banes to this country is finally beginning to fail - student lending. Read Sallie Mae Splits In Two, Will "Firewall" Student Loan Portfolio In Standalone Company. Ah, the old good bank/bad bank scenario. Where would this great nation be without severe accounting gimmicks? They are setting up for the great default folks. It's coming.

On to the markets -

Morning Charts 05/28/13

It is what it is till it isn't. Only the Fed with total control could weather the last storm and come out without a visible scratch.

As for today being a Tuesday, well - Traders Taunted By "20 Out Of 20" Turbo Tuesday (With POMO). Nuff said there.

SPX Daily - Wads of support lie below. Funny part is that the significant fall last week never even scared the 50 dma. Heck it never reached the 20. That is how over bought this thing is. That lower red channel support diagonal is the key I believe. This has potential to be the 6th reversal candle scenario to fail, and the 8th negative divergence to fail this year. That is some serious weight trying to drag this thing down.

There are no magic bullets or spells that will bring this sucker down. They can't let it fall and they have their control system humming along nicely. Event and 2 P's, That's all I got now. Boring, yes, but this is the new reality till it isn't.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Open Weekend Post 05/25-26/13

You know the drill - share the love and the knowledge.

Weekly 13/34 - See the yellow boxes? They indicate all the time that is left above the diagonal support lines for the indicators. . To say it is dwindling is an understatement. We're at a time when literally any moment can be the beginning of the end.

Enjoy the holiday weekend.

GL and GB!

Memorial Day and Morning Charts 05/24/13 SPX /ES

Memorial day weekend - first and foremost remember those that sacrificed everything for us, thank a soldier today (or everyday) and pray for those in action. I'm gonna forgo my usual "forefathers would be rolling over in their graves if they knew what this nation would eventually become" rant. I would like to bitch a bit about how ignorant, spoiled and irresponsible the citizens of the US are today, but let's hold off on that as well.

Memorial Day's meaning, like almost every celebrated holiday, has changed a bit. Sure there is the historical significance which we should hold sacred, but what about our recent and current troops, how do they fit into the equation? Ask yourself, truly, what purpose do the current forces serve and do their losses deserve to be memorialized on this day? This may be a bit off base, but this is how  I personally feel. I'm inclined to believe that our current forces are no more than thugs being paid by the taxpayers to protect the corporate elite's assets.

So, some unfortunate soldier gets killed by an IED while spending a complete tour protecting a poppy field in Afghanistan, am I supposed to be thankful for that person's service? Another gets killed in Iraq? Libya? IMHO, these poor individuals are not serving this country, they are serving the banks by protecting the petro-dollar status, supporting the drug trade and money laundering and securing resources for the big oil companies and nothing more. They are not defending liberty. Since when did the guise of freeing independent states and installing puppet democracies become our soldier's duty? I'm supposed to praise and remember these poor souls on this holiday? I'm not so sure about that.

This is their chosen profession. They were not drafted. This is how they have chosen to get their paycheck. Now do not get me wrong, I greatly respect their desire, hard work and willingness to protect me, but what are they protecting me from? Right now the al-CIAda boogeymen are about the only things I have to be afraid of - which if you catch my drift is an internal enemy - not external. Eisenhower warned us of the military-industrial complex.

Listen closely to President Eisenhower's farewell speech -



Am I supposed to be thankful for the troops that ignore the law of posse comitatus and impose law on the streets of this nation. Am I supposed to be thankful for the troops that conduct illegal roadblocks well within this nations boarders? Thankful for the troops that swore to protect the Constitution, yet ignore and disregard its very premise and purpose because someone commands them to?

I do know that one day I will be eternally thankful when a nuclear ballistic missile gets stopped from hitting here or when an invasion of one of our allies is defended. That's what their intended for, not to procure land for pipelines and free other people from oppression. Our military is not the global police force or is it?

So, the meaning of Memorial Day is changing. I feel both sorry and thankful for the troops today. Sorry because of their dual purpose to serve their corporate masters in peaceful times, and then thankful when they protect the nation in times of war. So does a non-wartime death defending corporate interests death deserve the same honor and remembrance as one that dies defending liberty? IMO one is a soldier and one is a mercenary. Soldiers deserve every honor possible and the other, not so much.

The definition of war is changing fast. Computer wars, currency wars, drones and such are changing the battlefield. A very large war is coming soon, There has never been an economic crisis such as this that has not ended without a world war. I thought there was a chance Obummer would start a war to insure his reelection, now I'm not so sure he won't start one to perpetuate his rule. I feel two things coming, one we will be grateful for the military when the war comes. Two I fear a post war police state where all liberty is lost and we live under military rule.

I'm afraid the seeds of liberty will need to be resewn soon and an armed nation may have to defend its self against its self. A new revolution will be necessary to retake our nation from the infidels and terrorists that control it today. The tree of Liberty has withered. It must be refreshed so security and liberty can/must prosper together. Then Memorial day will regain its proper meaning.

On to the markets -

Morning Charts 5/23/13 SPX /ES

Update: looks like I picked the wrong morning to have another field day cause the wave I wanted yesterday happened. Of course the PPT is in full court press mode right now.  

Japan Stock Market Crash Leads To Global Sell Off

Guess I lied yesterday, there is another field day today. LS1 has middle school field day, so I will be out this morning as well. Hey, it worked really well yesterday, so let's give it another shot. If this showing up late thingy works for the bears, count me in. School will be out at the end of the week which will change my post timing anyway back to the summer schedule where I do most of them at night and grab a little extra shuteye in the mornings. 


Original -

Not sure how the Asian markets will open quite yet and if Europe will follow through, but a couple of waves around the globe of fear would do my soul some good. Want to see how it all went down yesterday see this blow by blow post from ZH. The bond market in Japan is still struggling mightily which it has done for weeks with surprisingly little apparent concern from global markets. Never mind the increasing spreads in Europe or the explosion in the dollar and TNX. All is well, the Bernank said so. (Uh, NOT! See this.)

See this comparison chart to get a perspective of just how screwed up things are right now. Lopsided is an understatement. That's gold at the bottom (record COMEX shorts in hand) 

Morning Charts 05/21/13 SPX /ES

Field Day post. Yes, today is STB's final field day with LS2, and I'll be watching him do all the things that kids do at field day this morning. That will be much more worthwhile than watching a rigged market prep the way for the Bernenk's BS this afternoon. I'll be here well before lunch.

"Event" or to the moon, that appears to be the market's mantra. They are sniffing the next round number already, GS and JPM have 1750 targets and the trend is for 2,000. This is simply nuts. You know it and I know it, but it is what it is till it isn't.

About a year ago when I ran out of original things to say after three years bitching about this rigged market, I thought I needed to apologize to y'all. Mama taught me, never apologize when you are right, and I was right. If there is such a thing as Comment Board Capitulation this place has been ground zero for it. Moving from consistent 250 passionate comments per day to less than 100 in over a weekend was astounding. I get it. This is not a plea to get anyone lurking to come out. There is nothing left to say. We've all said it all over and over and over again. They have beaten us into submission.

Bottom line is this is a pre-holiday week with the Fed speaking. And what happens before long holidays (other than the few remaining bears wishing for a bank holiday)? They ramp it. They can not have America at the beach discussing how bad their portfolios are.They can't have any negative market conversation.

I'll be around later. Hope you will be.

Daily SPX -

More to come later from me, till them ya'll help yourselves.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 05/21/13 SPX /ES

Not much to say. Not gonna front run the Bernank's pledge to ease forever concubine tomorrow. I do suspect that he'll try and dress down congress and let them know that they can't spend endlessly forever. Congress will belittle their money printing master deflecting blame on him for their inability to do any more to help the economy than spend. We crossed the debt ceiling yesterday.













As usual, more to come below.

In other news - Anchored putting banned in 2016.


Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 05/20/13

Wednesday the Bernank speaks. A plethora of speculation around ease on/off that began last week will continue till his testimony Wednesday. To cut to the chase 1) we all know they can never stop easing, and 2) well there is no 2 other than any such announcement will automatically trigger a massive sell off. There is no question that they have to stop, but they can't. Amazingly enough the overly dovish board appears to be turning a bit hawkish.

As for the budget talks, the joke rolls on as any sort of fiscal prudence would be political suicide to almost every politician in DC. Any budget noise here would be to distract from the AP, IRS and Benghazi issues.

I found this post interesting (especially since it was on CNBS) - Why This Week Could See the Start of Risk-off. It is a silly post on how the rising bond yields across the EU and instability in the region could be damaging to equity prices. I mean really, how can bonds effect equities? A 10% correction by June? "the "Draghi put" which was established in August 2012 when the euro-dollar exchange rate was at 1.21, is likely to virtually evaporate." Sarc on of course.

Maybe they are on to something? "The irrational game goes on based upon one thing and one thing only which is the creation of capital by all of the world's central banks.The money must go somewhere and so it does but the disconnect between the equity markets and bond yields from the real world is frightening." France? Most dangerous? The place where taxes on income can top 100% of income? Say it ain't so.

Silver has been a headliner recently. In this No Love for Precious Metals post on CNBS. It really is a worthless post adding little insight to anything with quotes like this from some dude named Shamu (no not the whale, but could beIMO), ""We feel silver weakness has been a liquidation trade as investors grow increasingly wary of precious metals and traders are forced to close positions to meet margin calls elsewhere," said Stan Shamu, strategist at trading firm IG Markets." That is complete horse crap and every reader here knows that.

Maybe Shamu's take was a kinder and gentler way of saying, "Not a moment after someone was slammed with a massive margin call following the hit of 102 USDJPY stops as we noted moments ago, was that same someone(s) forced to dump a whole lot of silver in thin, no volume trading taking out the entire bid stack on what can only be described as "get me the hell out and pay me anything" liquidation" which is the way TD at ZH put it. If anyone is wary of PM's it is the paper holders, surely not those holding physical. The only fear physical holders have now is of real theft, as in someone breaking in your home. A rash of breakins recently hit my neighborhood (same dudes have been prowling the southeast). What were they looking for? Real silver. They passed right over the plated crap and took only one thing - solid goblets and flatware.

Silver - Clear as day, the LT yellow support busted back in February and it has been all downhill since then forming the green channel down. Support area started here at $21.50 and runs down to the $18.50 area. Price could dip below that to find channel support. I'd be buying with both hands there. A backtest of the $27.50 area would be preferred, but the JPM shorts are gonna take this where they want it to go. Remember that this is a fictitious price quote as real physical on the street, if you can find any, is selling at quite the premium to paper. This in no way represents reality.

On to the markets-

Open Weekend Post 05/17-18/13

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.   

Budget deadline is the 18th. I assume this is a non issue as usual to the government.  I mean, they have not had a budget for years now, so what does a debt ceiling mean anyway? Remember the fiscal cliff? Yeah, well here we are again, but I guess the Fed pledging endless funding takes care of those smaller remedial issues.

tyr·an·ny

noun \ˈtir-ə-nē\

plural tyr·an·nies

Definition of TYRANNY

1: oppressive power tyranny

over the mind of man — Thomas Jefferson>; especially : oppressive power exerted by government tyranny of a police state>

 

2a : a government in which absolute power is vested in a single ruler; especially : one characteristic of an ancient Greek city-state

b : the office, authority, and administration of a tyrant

 

3: a rigorous condition imposed by some outside agency or force tyranny

of the clock — Dixon Wecter>

 

4: an oppressive, harsh, or unjust act : a tyrannical act tyrannies

>
I suggest you watch this video with representatives of congress and individuals speaking out on the recent issues surrounding the IRS targeting and other recent deplorable acts your runaway administration is responsible for.  27:30 to 30:00 is the best part. The vid just gets better as reporters questions come after that. WARNING: This video can or may make you sick to your stomach if you are a true liberty loving American. It will also make you sick if you are an O loving democrat, cause your power base of corruption is about to be totally dismantled and your president is being exposed for the lying tyrant he is.

"This Is The Way A Tyrannical Government Comes Into Being And Perpetuates Itself" Louie Gohmert

Nixon was a choir boy compared to this abuse of power. This will be one hell of a battle and Moonbat will use every executive order in his power to hide the truth. Oh, and don't forget the race card.

Might I suggest that you read this selection of quotes from Thomas Jefferson.

SPX:Gold, silver and USB - the correction will happen one way or the other.

Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 05/17/13 SPX /ES

Once again we end another wonderfully profitable week for those long the stock market. Never mind that this is one of the longest periods without at least a 5% correction. That does not matter and it should figure when the Fed has forced every asset looking for any return into the stock market. For visualization purposes think sheep being herded for slaughter. Once you enter the gated chute there is no turning back.

You are either full risk on or the IRS will audit you, the DHS will intimidate you and all your electronic communication will be monitored. Whoops, that last part is going to happen no matter what. I meant to say you are full risk on or they will crush your short position into tiny little fragments that will be used to fuel the fire for the next 5% pop up.

Top, top, top is all we've heard for a year now, and we're hearing it with increasing intensity now from almost all fronts. Defying all the odds (and steadily worsening economic data on every level) here we are. So, what's going to take this market down? The Fed has spoken the ill fated words for a couple of weeks now about lessening the easing infusion, the only thing that keeps this market afloat. That has not scared anyone off. The data is horrendous. that does not seem to bother anyone. Globally everything sucks. WMT misses, BRK gets downgraded (of course S&P is much less reliable than Moody's and Fitch /s) and AAPL is priced for perfection. Credit and bonds are signaling total disaster is immanent. Even the Tepper curse has been made. I cold go on and on noting many more topping scenarios and catalysts. So what's the deal? Why do the markets continue to soar, and what will it take to stop this bull run for the ages?

What will it take to stop a completely manipulated and totally rigged system? I have no idea, but I do know that since the 90's (really since the JFK assassination) "they" have been at the helm. "They" have survived two great crashes, but somehow have managed to blow a third bubble. This one on nothing but debt (the worst type). You can see and feel it all spinning out of control now. The exposure of government scandals is finally being brought into the light. Their control of the MSM is being challenged. Their ruling ways of fear and intimidation are being exposed.

What this administration needs now more than ever is a distraction and a really big one so expect it soon. A domestic false flag would be good. As discussed here around the Boston bombing (FF or not), we're at a time where the government absolutely must have a 9/11 type event to galvanize the nation. Also discussed here many times over the years is that every global economic crisis like this thru history have always ended in a massive war. I honestly thought O would have stated one before the last election as no war time president has ever not been reelected. How bout this - will O attempt to extend his reign (not presidency but reign) with a war? Sickening thought isn't it? I've discussed how I think this plays out with distractions to cover the crash many times (and of course you know I think disclosure of alien life will be coming soon as well).

Syria is about to break out into a full fledged world war. I suspect at this time Russia, China and the US have already divvied up the globe and they know how, when and who gets what has already been decided. I don't think any of them are stupid enough to go for total global domination or to blow up too much of each others critical infrastructure. We all know the war is all about positioning for oil and energy. I do believe that a war will need to be very, very deadly and will be planned to eliminate as much of the global population as possible. The war will be about sustainability of the globe and not ruling power. It will be a great eugenics experiment. We're overpopulated. We can't supply enough jobs and can hardly feed everyone now as it is. So, big war, kill lot's of people (preferably the unhealthy ones without education and on welfare - sorry this is the way I see it), destroy lots of things, restructure the banking and finance balance sheets and put fewer people back to work with plenty to do. Bingo! and we're all kicking ass again.Well, those that are left will be.

On to the markets -

Sorry got off on a tangent there - back to the markets - really the markets are the great distraction for all that's coming. They are the invisibility cloak hiding the harsh cold reality that's coming to haunt us all. Nothing is real and that's why I kind of avoid discussing price movement these days. It is pointless. But, there will come a time, and hopefully very soon (if not right now), that discussing price will become meaningful.

Last Friday I thought that taking a shot at a short might be worth a try. Thank goodness I submitted that with caution. I still like the timing though. I got screwed by the machines, but isn't that to be expected these days? Look at the news and the economic data from this past week and my short call should have been beautiful. LOL. Anyway, that was the first time in a long time I have been willing to even think short, and I still think we're close to a time when the bears may be able to make at least a little hay. I do think I am going to pull the trigger on a top call very soon just o get that out of the way.

10m SMA intervals - Cause it is a good chart and someone wanted it.

Index Comparison Monthly - If my count is correct there have only been four red months in the past 20!

Index Comparison Daily - BUNCH ALERT!

CPC - Sell 'em territory for almost a year and diverging!

SPX Weekly - Dig the parabolic lift the last few months and ask yourself is this real? How about those divergences and the overthrow in the indicators?

Minis 15m - I'll give support and resistance calls below. Should be fairly obvious.

Bottom line is nothing makes this thing crash till they want it to or some "event" makes it. More to come below.

Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 05/16/13 SPX /ES

Nothing to say so here is a journey thru some of my ToS SPX charts.

Minis 30m -

All the rest of these are SPX charts from ToS -

Triple top - note the channel for this latest run and where price is here. I know, at least to me, that price hitting the upper side of this channel we've been watching for years was at one time inconceivable.

Morning Charts 05/15/13 SPX /ES

Early post -

And I wake up to this? Futures Rise As European GDP Declines At Worst Annual Pace Since 2009 Really? Must remember, bad is good and good is good, nothing can be bad in our bubble where the Fed and this administration will control and manipulate everything. Mommy will build the Wall.

Hush now baby, baby dont you cry.
Mama's gonna check out all your girlfriends for you.
Mama wont let anyone dirty get through.
Mama's gonna wait up until you get in.
Mama will always find out where you've been.
Mama's gonna keep baby healthy and clean.
Ooooh baby oooh baby oooh baby,
You'll always be baby to me.

Mother, did it need to be so high? (Waters) 

In my wildest dreams I never thought I'd be referencing The Wall in one of my posts when describing what was America, but here I am. I've had enough. Yesterday I wrote about the markets being nothing more than a distraction to reality, and last night that really began to sink in as I read Drudge and all the highlights surrounding the dark and heinous acts our government has been committing.

Let's hit a few highlights from Drudge -

'PRESIDENT PASSERBY': Obama deflects blame, claims ignorance...
NOT ME: Holder points finger at deputy for AP phone taps...
Atty Gen 'not sure' how often media records seized...

REPORT: IRS ordered conservative educational group to turn over list of students it trained...

POLITICO: OBAMA LOSES DC... 

McCONNELL: 'We've Only Started to Scratch the Surface of This Scandal'...

FRANKLIN GRAHAM: IRS TARGETED US, TOO...

Rev. Billy Graham Endorsed Romney...

IRS requests stalled applications of conservative groups up to 13 months...

Official speedily approved exemption for Obama's brother's 'charity'...'Corrective actions have not been fully implemented'...

And that is just the top left corner of his site. This is Hope and Change folks. Hope for a police state run by power hungry criminals that are destroying our Constitution, and Change to a fascist totalitarian state. It is sickening. Could it be worse? Sure it can. Our Justice Department run by Holder is controlled by the administration that more than likely orchestrated the IRS, AP and Benghazi attacks.

And if you wonder any longer why my market coverage has deteriorated into the two P's, now you know why. Nothing is real in this country or on this globe anymore.

If I were a betting man, I'd say really soon would be a good time for either a really large false flag or for a larger war to break out. Who's gonna impeach a wartime president? (note:a lot of the conspiracy sites are pointing to the 19th as a key date.)

On to the markets-

Morning Charts 05/14/13 SPX /ES

Pay attention to the right hand. Never mind what this left hand is doing. Ah, the old misdirection trick. I've been telling you for years now the markets were just an illusion to mask reality. Most thought I was a ranting lunatic, but loved the analysis and charts so much they hung around. Well, it appears we have yet another case of conspiracy fact on our hands and more proof that the growth of the fascist state is accelerating.

For years STB was all over follow the Fed. That was all you could do. Ease on/off translated directly to risk on/off. That was until QEfinity and the game of kick the can became a game of keep away. This evolved into the two P's, patience and prepare. Patience is required to deal with the Fed pumping in $85 billion a month in "stimulus" to fund the HFT bots buy only algos that keep the market's fire raging. Prepare is for the coming capitulation and the aftermath of the bursting of the debt bubble.

We've discussed at length that "they" can not let the market even correct at this point (currently the longest streak on more than six years without at least a 5% pullback). The markets solely exist at this point due to trillions in intervention, raw manipulation and globally coordinated central banks rehypothecating already fractalized collateralless fiat currencies. A tsunami of liquidity? I don't think so. This house of cards looks impressive, but looks can be deceiving.

What are they hiding? Plain and simple from where I sit. They are hiding the biggest economic collapse in the history of the globe. A total system failure of the global financial system. When you're four years into a "recovery" and the debt sold by two of the largest TBTF's in the country would be junk without government backing, there are serious issues.

IMHO, at this point they are in total damage control and planning for the great collapse. They are not trying to fix one damn thing. The only thing they are fixing is how the elite can dominate the globe after everything goes bust. They have installed the best president for the job. A socialist that is raping our constitutional rights worse than any before him. A champion of transparency that controls the MSM with an iron fist and uses the justice department against its own citizens. The government today exists to serve the corporate special interests, not the sheeple.

You can sweat and fret this market all you like. I know where it is going. I've known where it was going since 2009 when I penned, "Not until an external "event" rips control from "them" will this market fall." Now, I never imagined it would come half this far, but here it is. We're coming closer to that event every day. I do believe that Cyprus was the first serious catalyst. You can see the desperation in the administration. The lies and corruption are being exposed now from Benghazi to the IRS issue to the AP issue to the lies about whose using chemical weapons in Syria. Their backs are against the wall, and they are running out of time.

The gun grab and expansion of the police state are happening for a damn good reason. They know when this thing goes bust, society will as well. They are preparing for the worst, because they know the worst is coming. So you be a good little sheeple and keep on watching the MSM believing everything they tell you. You keep on playing the market and reaping the dividends of their greed and manipulation. It won't be long till we have a(nother) major false flag event. They must keep you distracted, and they must create even more fear in the hearts of the sheeple. Sadly, it's not the al qaeda (CIA) terrorists you need to be concerned about. It is the terrorists running this country that should be your greatest concern.

On to the markets -

We all see it. I could go on and on (and we do in the comments below) how many top signs there are right now. RC hit in a plethora of them in the comments last night you should go see.

Morning Charts 05/13/13 SPX /ES

Amazing that on the 18th we're gonna eclipse the debt ceiling yet again and this is not headline news. I guess it is a non-event when everyone knows it is gonna happen, and we'll just continue to print more money to cover the excess. Pretty amazing stuff how financially complacent we've become. Just spend, spend, spend and whatever you do, no matter the cost, do not stop the greed train. Consequences? What are those? Pay the piper? Why? When you print fiat from thin air it is free right? 

The Hilsenrath rumor mill has begun again in earnest. I guess the Fed needs something more than steady QE to motivate the markets. Why not shake things up a bit? If the carrot in front of the horse goes stale, you need a change. So you threaten to take the stimulus away creating a bit of fear, then you give it the old. "just kidding", bring things back to normal, crush the shorts again and wham-o! new highs come yet again. 

Bottom line is things are spinning out of control at an increasing rate. You are starting to see serious signs of desperation financially and politically. It appears they are starting to get stuck in the many webs they have woven. The budget crisis, Benghazi and Syria are topping the list of things we need to pay really close attention to.

I believe we're really close to a top in the markets, but the distractions they will need to turn our attention from the collapsing markets are not quite in place. Boston was a big event and good trial run, but it was not large enough to spark the nation into protectionist, raw nationalization, praise the homeland mode they will need like after 9/11. 

They're not ready for the "event" quite yet. They have done a good job thus far preparing the police state, limiting our ammo and controlling the MSM. They are close, and I believe they are starting to press a bit knowing their time table is shrinking. I suspect we'll see a larger domestic terrorist attack very soon. 

On to the markets - 

Open Weekend Post 5/11-12/13

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

I have little to say. Pretty sick about the whole mess at this point, so I'll give you a break from the bitching. If I see anything when updating charts this weekend I'll post it.




Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 05/10/13 SPX /ES

I feel comforted this morning. It is good to know that Jack Lew says,""The debt limit will be reached in just a few days when it expires on May 18 but because of the cash flows we can predict that we will be okay until Labor Day,"" That must be code for he's gonna pull another Turbo Timmy and raid the government workers pensions for loans to keep the government open again (and again and again).

Phew! The once unachievable $12.5 trillion debt ceiling now stands at $16.8 trillion and is rising. That's good right? No bubble here. We can continue to print more to stabilize a rotting economy and increase the entitlement base (those that rely on the government and will vote for the socialist democratic party in the future) all the while the Fed controls interest rates so this can remain affordable. They have everything under control, so there is no need to worry.

But as typical Americans (referring to the banks and citizens here) they rack up debt regardless of their means to pay for it cause the banks want us to. The more we borrow the more we spend and that is how this great country is "richer" that anywhere else on the planet (margin debt at all time highs). Good credit, bad credit - does not matter. Collateral? If you got it we'll take it but that is not necessary. Got a job?No, well that's OK too. (China - delinquent loans surge by 29% - not here - but a good example of how things are globally)

So what about the bad loans. They fixed that problem in 2009 with all that new regulation and tighter lending restrictions. Those worked for a while till "they" figured out that rules were just messing things up and getting in the way of profits. Dodd Frank? Uh, yeah, that went well. SarbOX - shuh riiight. They have the solution for everything and that begins and ends with the Fed and it's CTRL+P powers.

You see the banks lend, we default, the Fed provides more liquidity and all is well. This liquidity now even serves multiple purposes as loan loss reserves, since default rates are plummeting (cough, cough - see China above), can now be reallocated to support earnings (even in the quarters where the banks have 100% winning trading day records).

It all works so well till it doesn't. Maybe we need to start looking at Japan as a "for instance" as to what currency and interest rate manipulation can bring. Maybe not, the CB's say. We're different. It can't happen here. No one saw it coming (oops, I got ahead of myself there).Their debt/GDP is like 215 and ours is only like 105. What's the big deal? The Yen just eclipsed 100 yesterday and all was well in the East till this morning when JGB's were haled limit down. Whoa! Wait a minute. I thought everyone said Abenomics was the ticket. $75 billion a month in easing and they were buying up the globe. What happened? Well the like 5th bond market closure in the past couple of weeks happened. All is well? The other day it was Fitch, today it is Moody's (now that S&P is out of the way) reassuring you that the Bond Market Bubble is Overstated.

I could go on and on, but I won't. You know most of the story. It is the same as it has been since 2009 and nothing has changed other than the numbers get bigger and the methods of manipulation continue to deepen. We're nearing the end game. It could literally come at any moment now. They are one slip from total destruction. The good news is that we have full faith and trust in the good folks that got us in this mess to get us out of it.

On to the markets -

The good news for the bulls is it looks like they are setting up a massive HnS formation. I'm not sure if they have changed the definition of this pattern from bear to bull yet, but they will need to sooner than later as right shoulders have proven to be the best buying points over the last few years. More on this next week.


Minis 60m - Busier chart than I have been showing over the past few days and now you see why I want to blow up this ToS chart but can't.

Daily SPX - OK, I'm giving my blessing to those that want to short now. Only for a brief stint, but I have to go out on a limb and say that this setup with the news flow to come that this could be a good point to enter shorts with protection. I would not go balls deep out of the gates, but scale in and make sure the play is the right one. It has been a VERY long time since I have been willing to say that. Personally I would not prefer to short going into a weekend. I hate leaving that much faith in hands of others when I can't get to a open trading platform. I'll start projecting targets and such next week IF this matriculates. No bother in putting the cart ahead of the horse especially when talking about shorting this bullfest.

As usual more to come below.


Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 05/09/13 SPX /ES

I'm absolutely positive that every trader here at STB had equally as good trading quarters as JPM and BAC.  Wait, you didn't hit a perfect 100%, making a profit 60 out of 60 days last quarter? You are telling me that with this DOW action since November you have not at least batted 900?

What's your problem? I mean it's not like there is anything wrong with the economy. The global financial system is chocked full of liquidity. Heck our banks are so flush they can even pull loan loss reserves out to boost their earnings prospects. Add to that the Fed is pumping in $85 billion per month and Japan throwing in another $75B. How do you lose when there is no volume and a billion false bids lifting everything in sight? Heck, sleep in, have a huge lunch, take a nap, hit the buy button at 3:30, sell at 3:55 and go hit the links. It is not all that difficult folks.

Technicals schmechnicals. Tops? Ha! I see all those various historical measures reaching epic proportions. What do they matter now? This time is different, right? I mean the Fed and the government have our backs. They are not about to stop this gravy train no matter what sort of valuations or indications exist. This is the run for the ages. Come on in, the water is warm and all are welcome. The more the merrier. They won't be selling into your increase in equity allocation. That would never happen.

On to the markets -

Morning Charts 05/08/13 SPX /ES

I have a couple of meetings this morning that will keep me out till around noon.

We all know what it's all about, and they accomplished another mission yesterday with the DOW 15000 close. Top signs are everywhere. I've been reduced to the two P's - Patience and Prepare. It was follow the Fed for a couple of years and now all you can do is watch and wait.

Minis 4hr - Working from the travel/home set of ToS charts things may look a bit cleaner and slightly different. Note to those chartists out there - charting the same thing on two different computers can open new perspectives. Plain and clear the yellow channel up and price is back in the green older channel up. Support and resistance should be pretty clear.

SPX Daily - Looked at CPC, BP and VIX charts. Nasty conditions and the VIX is beginning to show signs that some sort of correction is coming sooner than later. Yes, I know the VIX is busted all to hell, but when it has moved in the same direction with SPX for longer periods of time it has been and unmistakeable trend change spotter.

And another interesting chart - 10m sma intervals -

Morning Charts 05/07/13 SPX /ES

When I read the below yesterday I could not believe what I was reading, then I stepped back, laughed and asked myself why am I surprised? After all we've been through, all the printing, TBTF, TBTJ, manipulation, corruption and having stated almost daily for the past couple of years, "they can't let the market fall" what's left that could Taze me now bro?

"Sadly, we are not making this up: as part of the BEA's latest revision to the way it calculates GDP, the government will no longer count the amount of pension funding that is actually allocated to retirement accounts (counted as wages in the GDP calculation): i.e., an actual cash outlay. Instead, what the Bureau of Economic Analysis will count are corporate promises of how much companies will (may? might?) pay... eventually. The bigger the lie and the promise, the higher the GDP. And presto."

That's from The Latest Contribution to US GDP: Promises ,,,No Really post on Zero Hedge. The post does not say much more, but why should it? How else do you describe yet another patently blatant manipulation scheme designed to fraudulently mislead everything that relies on US GDP data? What? Were the trillions wasted spent, the elimination of all regulation and gutting FASB standards not enough to boost the economy into a recovery? Are things so bad that .... never mind ... why go there? Was Dodd Frank so bad that ... oops ... won't go there either.

OK. so let's get this straight - the retirement/pension system that is woefully underfunded and can't support its promises is about to get buoyed by some bean counter flunkie at an S&P 500 firm all to make the economy look better so wall street can put this recession once and for all in the past?

Care to look at the market sans QE? Take a peek at the post The S&P With and Without QE. Let me sum it up for you, basically EVERY POINT (and then some by my calculations) off the 667 lows is QE driven. EVERY SINGLE POINT!

I have another question - how's this gonna work out for the CB's when they, as proxy to the government, take over said pension plans and make them GMS (Government Managed Accounts) to equalize distribution in the soon to be socialist state of America? Will they get fees for managing this "promised" money as well? I bet they will somehow.

Things are so fubared that all there is left to do is laugh (and stack physical as you leave every dollar denominated asset in your past).

On to the markets -

Morning Charts 05/06/13 SPX /ES

Since I have nothing new to say I thought I would do the post a bit differently this morning.The first several links are all from posts on ZH and you may have read them. I thought they read well put together as a post.

"the only option for the bulk of the periphery to regain competitiveness was through ongoing wage collapse and persistent localized depression. Five months later, just as predicted, Europe is in a worse shape than ever before, not only in those non-core countries where wage deflation is accelerating, but the weakness has fully spilled over to the core."

"The clear message from the doctors this week is that they plan to keep administering the pills, in larger quantities if necessary, until the donkey turns into a butterfly."

"Last week at its regular policy-setting meeting, the Federal Reserve affirmed that it is prepared to increase its monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities if things don’t start looking up. In all, the Fed has pumped more than a half trillion dollars into the economy since announcing its latest round of “quantitative easing” (QE3) in September 2012. With no recovery in sight, where’s all this money going? It is creating bubbles. Bubbles in the housing sector, the stock market, and government debt. In the meantime, real families are suffering. We are certainly not in a recovery."

"What is "obvious" to most participants is that the stock rally is fueled by central bank liquidity and quantitative easing, and since there is no limit in sight to these policies, there is also no limit to the stock market running higher." ..... "What is "obvious" to those embedded in the conventional, MSM/state-manufactured worldview is not the same as what is obvious to those outside the asylum."

"Swaps, as a tool, will no longer be able to face the upcoming challenges. When this fact finally sets in, governments will be forced to resort directly to basic asset confiscation."

"Financial markets operate on a number of implied assumptions about growth, policy direction and other factors. Experience tells us that these assumptions often turn out to be erroneous. A modern economy is an incredibly complex entity that involves millions of transactions every day. The notion that this vast and largely self-governing system can be controlled through tools such as government spending and/or an increase in the quantity of money is - to say the least - bizarre."

And that was just the financially related stuff. Syria, Israel (shields back up) and the rest of MENA are really starting to heat up. The Benghazi whistle blower issue should (should) send ripples thru DC and cause some heads to roll. O-care is crumbling. The DHS is on the hunt for even more ammo regardless of who's looking into what they are buying and why. Those and many. many more things are in the air right now. Things all round are not well at all. I assume it won't be long before the chainsaws they are juggling start to do some real damage. You have to see the desperation, the struggle, the chaos ruling things now and see the global dislocation occurring. It won't be long till someone blows up the wrong (or right) thing (if they have not already) that sets off the global powder keg.

On to the markets -

Open Weekend Post 05/04-05/13

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

It is what it is till it isn't. There is only one thing we can do to stop it at this time, and that would be to go now and take all your money out of the banks and all other accounts. If they lost all the deposits, they would crumble. They are so desperate that at this time that may not even work. We've truly entered some sort of financial parallel universe, some sort of new dimension of reality that never existed before and we just don't get, something you would only see in a movie. It's Orwellian might be the best way to put it.

At least the STB readers all get it now. I think my rants and ramblings of the past four years have finally been proven positive. I'm not a kook, that's reassuring. What's not is reassuring is where we are headed and what the end result of all of this will be. Those looking to get short and make a fortune on the backside may be a bit misled. The last thing we want is whats coming. I'm not sure we'd much rather stay this course than have to deal with the net result of every financial market collapsing on the globe.

Daily SPX - Unfortunately Blogger does not let me upload Stockcharts anymore for some reason. So go to the link and see the Daily chart noting the 6 (six) consecutive negative divergences and 5 reversal candle formations this run thru 1600 has produced. If memory serves, seven neg divs are the record I have witnessed in the POMO era and after the seventh in that case we had a POMO end and close to a 10% correction. Of course, as it would be today, things are different living in an ease to infinity era which changes all the rules.

Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 05/03/13 SPX /ES

I was gonna do a big 'ol chartapalooza this morning then this happened.

So screw that. Why put in the work when none of it really matters?

OK , I can't quit there, but my post idea has definitely changed course.

Minis 60m - I use the terms overbought and overthrown quite often. When things get obliterated technically there is no other way to describe it. For weeks now we've had 1600 hanging over our heads, and since April 18th the minis were channeling up nicely (as the Fed like to do) until until the breakdown this past Wednesday. As discussed this week, yet another HnS RS proved to be a launching pad. They really need to change the definition of that formation from Bearish to bullish. Ah, the new normal, how nice. As I always warn on any breakdown the backtest is priority number one before you can really seriously start looking south. OK bears, blue channel backtest has happened in style. This should add a bit more fuel to your fire.

Morning Charts 05/02/13 SPX /ES

I love reading things that sound like a summary of my stuff from the experts.

"One possibility for the markets to reverse has always been some grand event but another is just the economic deterioration that wears away at the markets as current levels cannot be rationally supported. It is not just the Law of Diminishing Returns which is coming into play as the central banks create more money but the effects on the consumer of seriously declining available cash to be used to purchase goods and services."

Of course they are far more eloquent and polished, but then like I give a flip. It is the content that matters, and I believe my readers appreciate the relaxed, informal and truthful nature of my posts (feel free to insert your description below - we could have a good time with this).

That was from First Euphoria, Then Reality on Zero Hedge. STB has been discussing the mentioned "event" since '09 when one of my very first predictions was that it would take "and external 'event' out of 'their' control to bring this market down." And of course you all know that STB has been discussing the diminishing returns of QE on the markets for well over a year now. 

Predictions, schmedictions. With the ECB rate cut we get to see yet another bankster trump card played. Why it took them so long to decide to charge themselves less money is beyond me? Were they making too much money off themselves? I don't get it. I guess the proper term would be 'circle jerk', and the ECB in this case is the pivot man. Bottom line dog and pony show, lipstick on a pig, describe it as you will, this is nothing more than another form of extend and pretend to keep the banks life support machines running at full tilt.

Trickle down? This rate cut is to benefit you, the sheeple. Ha! The only thing flowing down to the sheeple is misery in the form of increasing austerity, inflation and more capital controls as the rape of the middle class gets stepped up a notch. This is a move for the media. A move that few sheeple will understand and will be spun as something they are doing to help you, the little guy, out. Don't be fooled. It, as everything is, is all about them, their profits, bonuses and survival, not you.

On to the markets -

Morning Charts 05/01/13 SPX /ES

Believe it or not, I'm still having a tough time getting my head around the severe level of corruption and manipulation. Not only in the markets, but it permeates almost every corner of the globe, every business, everything financial. If you are not on the inside or bribing someone you are SOL. Ethics? Morals? HA! If you bring those to the game you've lost before you stepped on the court (and that's even true in the big business of religion). You better check those at the locker before playing this game.

It's like, hared to grasp at time how deep we are down the rabbit hole. Oh, I get it. I get where we are and where we are headed 100%. I have non wavering conviction on how horribly this will all end one day. It's how unglued, how dirty and corrupt we've become. How crushing your neighbor or employees has become a badge you wear with pride all in the name of gathering the most dollars. It's just sickening.

I guess we deserve what we all get in the end. The greedy ones will get their due, and the passivists that let it all happen will learn their lessons as well. It's just so sad it had to come to this. I guess it is human nature. History repeats its self, and we refuse to learn from it as a few bad marbles game the system, take control and then corrupt the rest. Boy are our founding fathers laughing at us now. Well, either that or they are really pissed off, cause if they knew they were gonna sacrifice everything, even their lives for this shit I think they would have taken a pass and sailed on to the next semi-uninhabited chunk of land.

On to the markets -