Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

OK - So everyone has a job now, right? The national debt and treasury ceiling are both safe and under control, right? The oil spill in the gulf has come and gone and we're not about to get into another war with Iran OR N Korea, right?  We're so happy with the current additives (mainly fluoride - rat poison) in the water we'd love to have them add lithium, right? MW thinks everything is just rosy, right? Just checking, cause I don't want you shaking your head when the market goes a little higher from here.

I hate to say it, but I think the EWT counters have this one nailed. Looking for one more pop to get to the top of 2 (the last exit for longs for I'd guess 3 to 5 years if not longer). The overbought divergences are pretty strong, but so are (as I have been warning for a long time now) the weekly indicators. NYMO is in the process of setting it's divergence. CPC is still falling and SPXA50 has not topped 400. We're close, but not quite there yet. the earnings BS continues to flow and if you are a bear you want them to pile this shit on as thick and heavy as possible cause a year from now there is no way in hell (unless QE v. 3 or greater) they will have the numbers to beat them. So. it only gets worse from here.

I'll post a chart later. See the minis chart below and follow the green wedge and the overbought daily indicators. Were close. 1140 is still my top end, but I'm not saying it will hold or even get there.

I'll post more in the morning. This is some stuff I threw together for The Dark Side. 

Minis Daily -  Yellow is the large P2 bull market wedge falling off into the sunset. Blue was the old resistance diagonal (not sure if that has any significance anymore). Green is the wedge that is ending. Gray vertical marks the double top we may be achieving. Daily chart cause of the overbought indicators that are topping. A week or so ago I made the statement I wanted MACD over the 0 line before the turn would come. We got that now. This looks really toppy, but is it? For a primer on the past several major tops (this may not be a major but a minor) see this weekly SPX chart HERE and you'll see why I am so cautious at this time. I did post a chart this morning where I sated what should have been the top. I was right (so far). Maybe the top is in. Most EWTers have us with one more pop up. We'll have to see. It still can go either way. 

Which way do I go? Duh, which way do I go?

Up? I doubt it with that resistance and the divergences and the diagonal just above (and a little help from MW this afternoon).
Down? I like this better.