Thursday, August 12, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

School is back in, so some more informative morning posts are coming again. Still behind updating the chartbooks in SC, sorry bout that. Below you'll see lots of reasons the market should begin some sort of sustained sell off. 

Dollar - $DXY - bouncing off the 61% retracement and the 200ma with BUY signals on the daily charts (You UUP fans need to be alert here).

EUR/USD - falling again today. Sitting just above a support line at 38% retracement. Daily sell signals.
AUD/JPY - this chart shows the consolidation and support. Daily sell signal as well.
Gold - /YG - I think it is backtesting the wedge breakdown after bouncing off the daily 200ma.

Natgas- /NG - Right in the middle of the range. Weekly RSI and S Sto look weak here. I think the churn down continues.
Oil - /CL - The corrective wedge is consolidating even more now after completing a 50% retracement. Testing lower support. Daily sell signal (yet again). Volume is going away.
SPX daily indicator chart - What strength there is on this chart is fading fast from what I can see. Hard to see, but that spike in the dollar should be very telling. Interest rates crumbling is another tell.

SPX 30m - Lawdy I love my wedges. Pulled back right to the green targeted double fib confluence are. Dashed blue line it the wedge target line. 30m is bottoming, but no divergences. You may get one this morning with the drop from the jobs number. This puppy may embed. We have to keep an eye on it.
Minis - /ES 4hr - Still some room to fall on the indicators. Blue dashed is wedge target. Not sure at this time if the yellow dashed diagonal is important or not. It may be so it is there.
One last chart - The Island Top - some say this is a huge reversal signal. I say it is a hole that usually gets covered. Both arguments can be correct. I just want to pint out that this spot exists at the 1117 level. See the blue rectangle. there is an open gap that runs thru the up and down side. 

OK, chart mania is over for today. The big question is how well the PPT and BD's can support the market and where do they choose to do it. Look for round and support levels for them to pick their battles. I would not add to any LT shorts here just yet. We need some sort of pop after a 40 handle drop. So' we fall, maybe the 30m chart cycles for the pop, then we fall off the cliff. She's gonna take out the 50dma at the open. Maybe she backchecks that and it becomes resistance here. Keep an eye on that level.

GL out there. Thanks for all your support and views.