Thursday, August 19, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Jobless Claims 500,000? Hell, we should rally like a beast by the end of the day! Come on, even a permabull has to begin to ask himself these days what the hell is supporting this market. As we all witnessed back in the beginning of the year the SEC will not prosecute M&A "rumors" spread to move individual equities. Since the administration is (has) running out of bullets and this is a freebie for everyone involved, expect more to come. Really, if you were a CEO why buy now when we all know where the markets are headed? Everything will be at fire sale prices in a year.

Economic Calendar - Leading Indicators and Philly fed at 10:00. Those will be interesting. Natgas at 10:30.

Earnings Calendar - DELL,  HPQ, ARO and GPS after the close should spice things up a little. I like checking the Earnings Watch feature HERE.

/ES 4hr - What really stands out about this chart? The dominance of RED candles. Also notice the two extended periods of range bound action this month. The weakening indicators confirm what all the red candles are trying to achieve. The INTC news attempted to lift THE WHOLE MARKET this morning, but the jobless numbers took all that back and then some. Why does the news for one move all? Don't say rising tides, cause this is a red tide that I see. So the trend is range bound with one or two big candles up and the rest red candles churning the market down. Looks like intervention fighting off a trend to me.

SPX 60m - Well, the divergences on the 30m indicators are enough to warm your heart, So I thought I would present the 60m chart to really get your blood pressure up. We're getting VERY toppy on a ST indicator basis. The problem with forecasting and me going out on a limb to call a larger impulsive move south lies in the position of daily indicators on the oversold side still. Can this be one of those rare times that the dailys get embedded? The MCAD is still above zero there and falling, so maybe the weakness is still alive and well.

Not sure how the markets react with Opex tomorrow. I'd say heads up at 10:00 for those econ announcements. COMPQ should be the strongest today with the INTC announcement and the HPQ and DELL numbers coming tonight. Watch that one to rally into the close. The 1,100 ot 1097 levels still are upper resistance with 87 on  the lower end. Watch the daily 50ma at 89. If that cracks severe weakness is a real possibility. Once this thing finally lets go, it is gonna impulse like mad. So your key levels as I see 'em are 88, 98, 00, 06 and 17.

If 87 cracks 74 would be a good stopping point if not lower down to 65. If 1,100 cracks (you gotta give the manipulation team their due as well) then 06 and/or what should be a quick run up to the Island Top near 17 is something you have to be aware of. I hate the VIX and rarely mention it, but is is bouncing off of MA support. If that holds, the bears are all good. If that cracks the shorties need to get back on the bench.

My bias is strongly to the downside. Why all the caution? Cause the rampant fraud and market manipulation are prominent drivers. When it begins falling it will be impulsive. We're close to that point. It needs a catalyst (Iran.Israel or China/N Korea). Apparently 500k jobs is not enough (WTF?). tomorrow afternoon or Monday should be interesting. All those red candles above on the /ES - that's your tell.