Thursday, August 5, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

I wrote all of the below last night. The update after the Initial Claims Surge To 479K, Trounce Expectations Of 455K, Severe Deterioration From Last Week's 460K we have some clarity. The question is will they shrug off this data as well?

The minis did this (see the wedge below).
Copper may actually be topping here, but it is in a  larger wedge with more room to run up to that green diagonal.
A chart you should be really interested in is Wheat futures. Russia is now hogging all theirs and not exporting. This may be a sign of the future folks. Pay attention here. Looks like the price of a lot of what we eat is about to double.
Dollar is sitting on it's daily 200ma and nearing a 61% retracement. You UUP lovers may want to keep your eyes on this one. Lots are projecting a turn here.I think it pops and winds up in the 60's if not lower (if not becoming defunct eventually).
AUD/JPY looks to be turning.

Stockcharts is still busted and I can't update anything. As soon as I can I'll post something.

Well, we're figuring it out that if you miss the action before 10:30 you can write it in for the rest of the day. Let the bots take it from there. Why the bots? Well with figures like this And Scene: ICI Reports 13th Consecutive Week of Massive Domestic Equity Outflows As Banks Start To Panic there are not many of "us" left in the game.

Economic Calendar - Big day today and tomorrow. Check it out and know what's hitting when.

Earnings Calendar - Into the energy sector and some other vagrant issues that are off the major fraud scale.

We remain in la la land as far as price action. Some counts have us in the final thrust, some heve us as topped and some have even loftier highs ahead. The confusion we've been discussing the past couple of weeks is not much more clear now than then. We're all thinking higher but how much? I'm actually considering calling a top here as the dailys are diverging and my BFF the 30m chart is screaming sell. Sadly I've been inhabited by the spirit of the weekly chart that (if correct) says we've got some more room to run. If that is so the rectangle may provide a nice measured move to some good fib targets. On the other hand the TA (esp on the minis) has the wedge ending with what I'd call some severe overbought conditions on top of some really cruddy fundamentals (excluding the earnings/accounting/QE stimulus fraud we've been witnessing. The comps have been easy as hell, but they start to get tougher soon, so the easy money is now behind us.

Patience is key I'm allowed to lose mine, but you have to keep yours. My suggestions 1) if it breaks out to the upside a) it could be real and may take it to my 1040 target or I will warn against the fake out breakout and 2) if she falls, once 1116 is gone she'll pick up some steam headed south. This fall will be real and it will be hard. I say keep the powder dry till a clear direction is made, jump fast and keep those stops tight. We're gonna be making a bunch of money soon, hang in there and GL!

StockCharts Java applets are screwing up and I can't annotate anything fight now (kinda pissing me off), so you get ToS charts! The best I can come up with right now is this daily chart of the minis. The wedge is clear as a bell and so are those overbought indicators and decreasing volume. The VIX had a slight divergence yesterday morning, look for it to possibly happen again.